Atlantic Storms - 12th December 2011 Onwards

[sn0wman]

These models are totally differant to what the BBC are suggesting, all theirs suggest that this storm will be further south with Ireland, Wales and Central and Southern England being worst effected.

The BBC Forecast only goes up to Thursay Evening though; if it continued it would probably bring it further North into Northern Scotland. Don't get me wrong though the South would still be in for some very strong winds, but the North would get stronger winds if the current charts verify. Still loads of time for the models to completely change though, so we'll probably never really know where it will go until a couple of days before it hits, but what I think is almost certain is that wherever this storm goes it will be bad.

[knightrider]

Fridays storm is really looking bad for everyone but I think particularly acroos the midlands, even Norwich is predicted gusts in access of 60mph I believe Cumbria could take a battering from this storm in particular! Could be the stormyist week in the UK since the 1997/98 winter storms!

[Uncle_Barty]

THursday/Friday will be Bawbag Mk II according to GFS, MetO have it less intense and further south.

[lfcdude]

Well Ian Ferguson got back to me on twitter. hes our weather man, on points west

fergieweather Ian Fergusson

@

@johnpockos Tues storm threatens severe gales here; gusts 60mph+, but the Thurs-Fri event offers even more concern if it stays as per models

Very interesting!

If you have not seen it BBC Weather's Darren Bett on both storms!

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/16126512

P,s go on ians twitter.. look at the isobars... friday could be a record breaker if that comes off?

Edited December 10, 2011 by lfcdude

[Richie V]

It's just a beast of a system.No sign of models backing away..

Sweet Innit? Do you remember what I said in the model output discussion thread exsactly a week ago tonight?

Looking serious man!

[Aaron]

I wouldn't be surprised if this storm turns out to be a damp squib after the usually ramping (let us not forget Katia!)

Edited December 10, 2011 by Aaron

[pyrotech]

I wouldn't be surprised if this storm turns out to be a damp squib after the usually ramping (let us not forget Katia!)

It might well do, but Tuesdays storm is probably going to be rough for some, and we will have to watch all the models to see which one blinks first. Then we watch the Friday storm as the models will have a better idea after the path of Tuesdays. Lets not get ahead of ourselves here, Why worry about fridays storm track when major storm on Tuesday.

Its time to compare runs from each model now ( for Tuesday first) So i will save the charts from major models and fax charts and compare difference of each model against its runs and model to model runs. I will post differences here.

So far GFS 12z today and 12 yesterday run has this system at same pressure 950mb at Tuesday 0600z but slightly further west. At that time it is not further North or South.

The NAE charts will come into play tomorrow and they are probably the best to follow apart from the fax charts which have full human intervention.

[If Wishes made Weather]

Most concerning this if the BBC weather guys have been instructed to put out a (very) early tutorial for Tue and Fri. A point not to forget is that anything hitting the SE of even moderate intensity will cause more damage and disruption.

[Aaron]

It might well do, but Tuesdays storm is probably going to be rough for some, and we will have to watch all the models to see which one blinks first. Then we watch the Friday storm as the models will have a better idea after the path of Tuesdays. Lets not get ahead of ourselves here, Why worry about fridays storm track when major storm on Tuesday.

Its time to compare runs from each model now ( for Tuesday first) So i will save the charts from major models and fax charts and compare difference of each model against its runs and model to model runs. I will post differences here.

So far GFS 12z today and 12 yesterday run has this system at same pressure 950mb at Tuesday 0600z but slightly further west. At that time it is not further North or South.

The NAE charts will come into play tomorrow and they are probably the best to follow apart from the fax charts which have full human intervention.

ECM brings the low on Friday over the central belt of Scotland.. if that scenario came off it would bring the most severe winds to northern England and the Midlands.

[pyrotech]

Hi all comparing some fax charts for Monday 12z

Perhaps some fronts quicker into SouthWest but Exeter think same intensity and just a little westwards than earlier run

Notice second low starting to form here

Looking at the 12z Tuesday

The Low further East and slightly South, Possibly a little more pressure gradient. but second low due to split. Just looks at this time that its a timing change and that things are continuing as forecast but perhaps a few hours earlier.

Remember its going to deepen in the Jet and as it leaves the Jet stream so longer in it can increase intensity.So further South increases chance of intensity

This is definitely still on track but has a long way to run. will they keep that second feature low?

Edited December 10, 2011 by pyrotech

[Lynxus]

The UKMO isn't, nor is is NOGAPS (which tbh, isn't the best of models...). Of the 12z suite so far, it is the GFS that places the low furthest north. Will be interesting follow over the coming days!

Almost choked on my Fosters when I saw this.

WOW

I need to now carefully plan where to park my car at work to avoid damage from falling buildings.

[pyrotech]

ECM brings the low on Friday over the central belt of Scotland.. if that scenario came off it would bring the most severe winds to northern England and the Midlands.

Yes but each model has a slightly different track and the actual will not be known till a few hours before it hits, each day it will get more acurate, but with such a potent Jet all that can be said is a rapidly deepening depression will take a track somewhere near or accross the UK, with likely track at this time being over Scotland. But its a long way off for accurate prediction on where worst winds will be.

[Roger J Smith]

Make a will.

[lorenzo]

Another one to hide in the cupboard please..

[pyrotech]

Make a will.

Roger, this set up reminds me of the winters of late 80s early 90s. Obviously there were some deaths back then which hopefully will not happen this year.

Most famous serious injury was star of sitcom Allo allo who had a tree land on his car.

But in terms of storms it seems to be very simillar set up to that period - including in that temperature and weather type.

[lfcdude]

Thos model outputs... our running on the same line as the one ian put on twitter.. of the ecmwf model...has the potential to be carnage.

http://yfrog.com/hw11iscj there is the link the link

Edited December 10, 2011 by lfcdude

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well it's going to be a bit windy pops just about everywhere!!!

[Roger J Smith]

Absolutely, if the second of the two major storms comes off as per any consensus of major models, there will be widespread damage. The casualty toll is something that we can help reduce by responsible discussion although obviously the Met Office and the media have a better chance of getting the attention of the public -- still, when people hear about these storms coming, they may become new lurkers here. And to any such people, I would say, take any warnings very seriously with these storms, the upper pattern is volatile, to get right down to basics you have a tight jet stream interacting with a very strong gradient of ocean temperatures (colder than normal to west and staying rather warm to south) -- all the factors one expects to be associated with major or devastating storms in the UK and Ireland.

Would say at present that Monday-Tuesday storm has 70-80 knot wind gust potential and the Thursday-Friday beast, if it comes off as depicted, could be very severe (I'll say 100+) and not just in isolated hilly places but across populated areas of the south and central regions of England. Let's hope, basically, that the models have the second storm wrong, because nobody wants to see this verify except a few disturbed weather freaks (i.e., forum membership).

[Snow free zone]

The second of those two fax charts just posted makes me more than a little concerned about Tuesday. There will have been input from the forecasters on those as well. Really need to keep an eye on this.

Edited December 10, 2011 by Snow free zone

[Summer Sun]

I would not be suprised to see some Red warnings issued from the Met Office again this week.

[lfcdude]

I would not be suprised to see some Red warnings issued from the Met Office again this week.

if friday comes off.. i can see most the country in red.. and if i was near london.. i would worry about the Thames barrier

[Typhoon Turner]

i think if friday comes off we may well be talking about this for along time to come... storm surge a definite possibility, just off to look at the tide heights now....

[Lynxus]

Another one to hide in the cupboard please..

Erm...

So tuesday, We get battered.. Friday .. We gonna die?

[lfcdude]

do you think if Friday comes off.. we could see mandatory evacuations along the coast. like there do for hurricanes in the usa?

[Jane Louise]

Here we go again... not all of us want this bad severe weather especially when it's a dangerous threat to life. I hope you're not referring to me.I like thunderstorms, a little wild weather but certainly not what may be on the way this week!! One rumble of thunder is like a storm to me at the moment lol.These kind of atlantic storms are scary and I'm sure others who like a bit of exciting weather probably feel the same way as I do! We know we have to take safety precautions and keep safe! If we're silly enough and don't follow the rules thenbe it on our head .I always warn friends/family about these dangerous weather situations, it's just something you do!!