Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward

[Iceni]

Bit harsh that. The way the low pressure system was modeled earlier in the week meant that if it took a more northerly track there could have been some very strong winds over a densely populated region. As it turned out, closer to the day the models predicted it staying further south, but with the possibility of snow. I don't think the Met ever stated that there would be anything particularly heavy - they just said that the rain will turn to snow and this morning's rush hour could be tricky in a few places.

I was listening to the radio roads info and there was one long list of traffic accidents and I believe a report of actually 'white out' conditions in Peterlee. We've had about a couple of cms but it's only settled where the ground was still cold from the frosts a couple of nights ago. I agree, nothing was particularly hyped either by the forecasters or the MetO, just the locations shifted with the track of the low — absolutely nothing compared to last year granted.

[Stuie]

Just looking through the models on the meteociel site. I notice there are a few models that hardly get a mention on here, BOM, WMC, GEM.

What is the reason behind this? They all seem to be fairly similar.

[Matty M]

Just looking through the models on the meteociel site. I notice there are a few models that hardly get a mention on here, BOM, WMC, GEM.

What is the reason behind this? They all seem to be fairly similar.

There not as good at predicting the weather as the other ones.

[Matty M]

I would it see it perfectly plausible that some places will see a white Christmas.

Looking at the GFS 6z quite, it appears we will have 3 days of mild weather but a rapid cooling around December 23rd until December 26th with 850hpas getting down to -4c to -8c

[summer blizzard]

Just looking through the models on the meteociel site. I notice there are a few models that hardly get a mention on here, BOM, WMC, GEM.

What is the reason behind this? They all seem to be fairly similar.

GEM is actually a pretty good model and not too far behind the GFS in 4th position (ECWMF and UKMO being 1st and 2nd) however the rest are a load of rubbish and not worth looking at.

GEM only produces a 0z run to day 10 which is why it is not reffered to as much.

[Robbie Garrett]

As Matty M says. However I am wondering what sort of pattern will evolve for the last week of December into the first week of January where I think by the 9th January we may see our first blast of Winter 2011/12

That polar vortex is edging ever close to the UK, it's only about time before everything goes into overdrive and we go into another freeze OR it will be a mild squib, and I am noticing with every run that it's dragging down much colder air than say now.

Edited December 16, 2011 by Robbie Garrett

[syed2878]

The ecm dropped the storm first. After this week if there's 1 thing i've learned is not to take the models as gusble.

[Summer Sun]

After a mild mid week things cool down by the 23rd and this continues through christmas

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2162.png

The south-west has a chance of been mild but every where else should see temps from 2c to 6

After christmas high pressure is shown to build again

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2641.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2881.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3121.png

This continues right through FI however is does turn cooler.

Edited December 16, 2011 by Gavin D

[Robbie Garrett]

After a mild mid week things cool down by the 23rd and this continues through christmas

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2162.png

The south-west has a chance of been mild but every where else should see temps from 2c to 6

After christmas high pressure is shown to build again

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2641.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2881.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3121.png

This continues right through FI however is does turn cooler.

I've noticed every run it seems to do this, and then drops it. Somethings going on!!

[UV-RAY]

After a mild mid week things cool down by the 23rd and this continues through christmas

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2162.png

The south-west has a chance of been mild but every where else should see temps from 2c to 6

After christmas high pressure is shown to build again

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2641.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2881.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3121.png

This continues right through FI however is does turn cooler.

There is absolutely no chance of those charts coming off IMO. After the 23rd cool/cold zonality will be in place, probably right through until the New Year.

[Nick L]

There is absolutely no chance of those charts coming off IMO. After the 23rd cool/cold zonality will be in place, probably right through until the New Year.

Care to elaborate on why? That's a very bold statement to make!

[feb1991blizzard]

There is absolutely no chance of those charts coming off IMO. After the 23rd cool/cold zonality will be in place, probably right through until the New Year.

I would have been inclined to agree with you untill a few days ago as this theme of the GFS / ECM building heights to south and then putting it back has been repeated so far throughout december and to be fair a fair few members of the suites still going for cold zonality now but the Met office seem much more bullish about less cold zonality and although i wouldnt be suprised to see some snow for scotland to low levels i expect less amplification so expect any PM to be squeezed quickly before anything too much below average gets much further south, i dont necessarily expect blowtorch SWerlys either mind.

Edited December 16, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[phil nw.]

Yes it`s fair to say the approach of the Azores high next week has been well modelled.

The devil is in the detail,as they say.

How far North will it build?

Positioning is key to the mildness at the surface.

[pipsta]

To the users who keep insisting we will see mild, zonal or cold zonal into the new year. Have you not learned anything. How can you make these assumptions seeing as the amount of changes we have seen lately. To say that our weather will be like this or that is tripe. The amount of times of read peoples posts saying no snow until jan. look out of the window! Sorry just frustrating for a novice to read

[TyphoonNow]

Sorry I know it is probably not the place to post this, but anybody know where where I can find archive charts from last year? Specifically November 30. (Free if possible.)

[SP1986]

To the users who keep insisting we will see mild, zonal or cold zonal into the new year. Have you not learned anything. How can you make these assumptions seeing as the amount of changes we have seen lately. To say that our weather will be like this or that is tripe. The amount of times of read peoples posts saying no snow until jan. look out of the window! Sorry just frustrating for a novice to read

I don't see anyone insisting we will see mild, zonal or otherwise into the new year?

That said there is no other suggestion at this moment in time other than conjecture based on lose standing pattern indicators.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Can't say I've seen models spout so much guff for a long time. Horrendous looking charts at the minute but that's not to say something won't pop out of the woodwork suddenly.

[Frosty.]

The models show the weather turning mild next week with double figure celsius for all areas but with some rain and breezy at times and the meto are calling for above average temps through to the end of the year, I trust they are more accurate with that than they were about the monster storm that somehow missed the uk completely. :smiliz19:

[weathe20]

Looks like normal standard UK winter fare from the models. Seems to be the theme.

for JH - bor fest.

[Robbie Garrett]

Worth the watch actually, even thought slightly off topic but I don't wanna create another thread. I came across these on youtube.

Really does go to show how bad last year was, and how rare it was.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AplmFDA7Hcs&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0k6fzvyiYE&feature=related

Edited December 16, 2011 by Robbie Garrett

[Liam J]

Robbie what on earth has this got to do with the weather and more importantly this thread?

Edited December 16, 2011 by Liam J

[ChartViewer]

ECM to T120

ecm 144

Sorry my links are not working

Edited December 16, 2011 by ChartViewer

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Sorry I know it is probably not the place to post this, but anybody know where where I can find archive charts from last year? Specifically November 30. (Free if possible.)

Hi TN, try this one.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

[Harsh Climate]

Simply awful output at the moment! I guess it's to be expected though as this is just typical British winter weather we are seeing.

All the way to 384h barely a glimmer of anything decent happening and that includes the ukmo and ecm two (as far as they go.)

Wouldn't it be nice if we could start seeing charts like these:

These charts here are the benchmark of what we need to develop if we are going to get the heavy snowfalls/deep cold we really desire. A greeny high or a scandi high, anything else will just fall short and deliver very little apart from the odd isolated place.

[A Winter's Tale]

Negativety and more negativety. Yes, there's going to be a mild spell next week. But I believe that the end of the week and Christmas will see the UK under another cold snap which may well bring a third consecutive white Christmas to some parts. After that, it's well out into FI but I feel that it's likely that much milder weather will prevail. However, remember that the best of any cold and snow this winter is expected for the second half but really the period from the end of December into January will be crucial in determing the fate of the winter with the state of polar vortex and stratoshphere. If there hadn't been any sign of any warming in the stratosphere by mid January etc, then If I were from Southern England I would begin to worry. But that's a long way off and here were I am, I have already equalled my snowfall tally of last December and have currently got 2-3cm of snow outside in a winter wonderland. Not bad for a month that was set to be the least interesting of the winter.