Wales - Regional Weather Discussion

[andymusic]

Yeah great , but how many times has a trashy GFS run or two led us up the frozen garden path Andy?

Fair point Tony - Gut feeling though that considering the time of year it is - late winter - other more experienced forecasters hunches - plus the current output - meto considering the possibility - strongly suggests something is about to come our way - in the way of cold!

[keithlucky]

I was not meaning to sound sarcastic apologies.it was more an observation on the peculiarities of being suckered into model runs.

Just joking Wednesday the key day for me to see where these addictive models are going.

[ourson]

Fair point Tony - Gut feeling though that considering the time of year it is - late winter - other more experienced forecasters hunches - plus the current output - meto considering the possibility - strongly suggests something is about to come our way - in the way of cold!

The METO have seriously hedged their bets with the medium term forecast. On the one hand, mild, wet blah blah blah, on the other, we could be in for some proper winter weather. Either scenario as likely as the other. Stastically, we're likely to get something in the middle - SSDD.

I would prefer some cold and snowy weather, but fear that we may be in for more of the same. We would need some pretty stunning cold and snowy weather for a while to make this winter more than totally boring weather-wise this year.

[J10]

ECM a sort of halfway house, a sort of Easterly but never getting cold uppers. Cold and Frosty would sum it up.

So often when there is model disagreement, a sort of halfway house is the most likely scenario, so will ECM be right tonight.

Find out in tomorrow's episode of SOAP, sorry the model thread.

[TonyH]

What is interesting me about this Winter, is the continuation of the mildness, and almost total lack of severe frosts which is causing nature to react as though it's Spring already. I have heard various birds in song, such as Song Thrush. Blackbird, Great Tits, which is very early, and they are now in song a little most days. Also there are already Daffodils out (6 weeks ahead of St David's Day) and the Bluebell spikes are 6 inches above the ground (to bloom before March perhaps?) the latter is quite unprecedented!

Edited January 22, 2012 by TonyH

[Bobby]

For all the talk of background signals, trends, potential etc we're nowhere near a cold snowy spell at the moment, just FI teases as it has been all winter. Hopefully it will change but maybe its wise to brace ourselves because it may not.

[keithlucky]

What is interesting me about this Winter, is the continuation of the mildness, and almost total lack of severe frosts which is causing nature to react as though it's Spring already. I have heard various birds in song, such as Song Thrush. Blackbird, Great Tits, which is very early, and they are now in song a little most days. Also there are already Daffodils out (6 weeks ahead of St David's Day) and the Bluebell spikes are 6 inches above the ground (to bloom before March perhaps?) the latter is quite unprecedented!

There are different types of daffodils February gold flower just after crocus tete a tete small multi headed daffs they usually flower middle of February ,and finally King Alfred pale green leaves big trumpet daffs they sometimes flower before March ,depending on how many frosts we get.(there are the most common seen in grass verges). Edited January 22, 2012 by keithlucky

[J10]

A couple of final points from me tonight.

While not a wildlife expert at all, we have had a lot of mild winters where all sorts of flowers have blossomed early, late January for a lot of flowers while early, much of this has happened before.

Re Barb it is not a matter of things changing they are already have/are, look at the Polar Vortex strength as one example. the question is will it benefit us in the way we want. Just because we haven't seen the benefits doesn't mean the pattern hasn't changed.

[TonyH]

Yes Julian similar things like this have happened in previous mild winters however I have observed such things for some 40 years. This year is a step or two ahead of those others. I have never seen daffodils in flower in mid January irrespective of variety, and the bluebells as I stated are unprecedented in my experience. The birds are most definitely in spring mode, don't think I have observed them behaving this way for so long so early on ever before.

[J10]

Yes Julian similar things like this have happened in previous mild winters however I have observed such things for some 40 years. This year is a step or two ahead of those others. I have never seen daffodils in flower in mid January irrespective of variety, and the bluebells as I stated are unprecedented in my experience. The birds are most definitely in spring mode, don't think I have observed them behaving this way for so long so early on ever before.

I have seen daffodils flower in (late) January before, but I will bow to your knowledge on the other information.

That is my final post of the night. It has been my intention not to look at charts so much, particularly the 18Hz ones, and until now I have singularly failed.

[welshwizard]

Yes Julian similar things like this have happened in previous mild winters however I have observed such things for some 40 years. This year is a step or two ahead of those others. I have never seen daffodils in flower in mid January irrespective of variety, and the bluebells as I stated are unprecedented in my experience. The birds are most definitely in spring mode, don't think I have observed them behaving this way for so long so early on ever before.

tony i agree with u,this winter has been mad and the birds are out in song and so are the flowers. i have never seen flowers blooming at this time ov year where i live.

[keithlucky]

Nice to see GP sticking with his forecast ,its only a matter of time that the UK will be in a freezing ,may be as early as next weekend .

[Cwmbran Eira]

Nice to see GP sticking with his forecast ,its only a matter of time that the UK will be in a freezing ,may be as early as next weekend .

I hope so although I'm starting to think this winter is getting away from us. I know I'll be told there's probably 2 months of potential left but I get the feeling we'll be tantalisingly close but will miss out this year. Fingers are always crossed though.

[andymusic]

I know you don't like this jumping from run to run - but the UKMO now seems a little more in line with the GFS and todays GFS 12z is an absolute beauty for cold and snow - late weekend into next week - this could be it folks - our share of the winter finally arriving in the third third of the winter! - watching the ECM now with great interest

[Bonjangle]

I know you don't like this jumping from run to run - but the UKMO now seems a little more in line with the GFS and todays GFS 12z is an absolute beauty for cold and snow - late weekend into next week - this could be it folks - our share of the winter finally arriving in the third third of the winter! - watching the ECM now with great interest

Fingers crossed then, hope it all pans out for us to have a good white out and some harsh frosts .

[Snowmadsam]

I know you don't like this jumping from run to run - but the UKMO now seems a little more in line with the GFS and todays GFS 12z is an absolute beauty for cold and snow - late weekend into next week - this could be it folks - our share of the winter finally arriving in the third third of the winter! - watching the ECM now with great interest

Looking good now come on Easterly!

[J10]

I just has a quick look and better agreement tonight on some sort of Easterly. (Caution alert - easterlies have imploded closer to the time than this.)

In summary and to simplify greatly, the 2 types are very cold with the chance of snow in the right circumstance, and a cold dry one.

A prolonged surface feed from the continent will bring some cold weather, even if the uppers are not cold themselves.

[keithlucky]

Lets hope we can see the same runs on Wednesday night .

[TonyH]

And this weekend!

[keithlucky]

I noticed that possibility of wintry showers Thursday as colder comes down from the N West according Mat Hugo met man for weather commerce.

Edited January 23, 2012 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

I noticed that possibility of wintry showers Thursday as colder comes down from the N West according Mat Hugo met man for weather commerce.

yes - colder air is in as soon as that - and it'll just improve from there!

[nwales]

Saw the forecast of some snow for high ground in N. England & Scotland tomorrow - wondering if they've overlooked the possibility of a bit in upland areas of north-east Wales? Temp has dropped like a stone this evening, max of 6.1c today and currently -0.1c

[Snowmadsam]

yes - colder air is in as soon as that - and it'll just improve from there!

Fingers crossed Andy!

[benb]

As others have commented and predicted, at long last it looks like the long awaited pattern change may well be coming to an end, with the probability of some cooler weather by as soon as Thursday with the possibility of some snow over the hills as that little feature moves across, I'd have thought-

Then, after a brief warmer spell at the start of next week, it appears there's something of a trend towards synoptics that could (just for a laugh!) lead to something along the lines of this -

Seasonal, to say the least, if anything like that comes off. Really hope it does because this last couple of months has felt like a long autumn leading into an early spring.

Cautiously optimistic, atm, but we've been burnt before by forecasts of this kind of set up.

There's been some great potential battleground charts over the last couple of runs: nearly two weeks away, I know, but it looks nice-

Anyway- fingers crossed we get the cold in, and then, with a bit of good luck, we might get a proper bit of snow!

Edited January 23, 2012 by benb

[TonyH]

I noticed that possibility of wintry showers Thursday as colder comes down from the N West according Mat Hugo met man for weather commerce.

Yes, and as mentioned in my guide for the week, some wintry showers Thursday into Thursday night, but again probably any snow restricted to the highest ground. Then pretty chilly and frosty this weekend although the uppers are not cold due to the air originating to our south west, perhaps more of inversion potential at that stage.