Wales - Regional Weather Discussion

[benb]

Going to be an interesting few days watching the forecast for the end of the weekend/start of next week develop- watching the BBC forecasts, that snow zone seems to shift 75miles back and forth every half-hour! The Wales/England border perhaps favourite, for this half hour, at least.

The chaos in the models reflects the unusual synoptic situation- and it could either way yet. I just hope the human forecasters are correct and the block is robust enough to give us a chance of some proper frontal snowfall as that moist, warm air runs into the cold stuff over the next week...

Frequent rain, sleet and hail showers in S.Pembs today- still waiting for my first snowflake of 2012!

Edited January 26, 2012 by benb

[welshwizard]

well it did come down quite a bit earlier,strange thing was it was all about height,snow was coming down good guns by me and even worse behind me on the mountain,but i only drove down for about 40 seconds and it was sleet,you could have drawn a line at where the snow line was. i then went up the bwlch and it was mad up there fair play,plenty of snow and roads were very bad. that was about 4.30. i been down to Cardiff tonight and nothing just wet, on way home rain in ogmore and wet snow up nantymoel,but further up the hill towards bwlch it was turning to snow. funny how even just 100ft makes such a huge diff.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

The dew points this afternoon were hardly conducive to snow either

http://expert-images...012615_2612.gif

http://expert-images...012618_2612.gif

I do find it quite strange that this winter we have had a lot of marginal events which have given a bit of snow, but this one seems to given a fair amount of snow, with very similar synoptic patterns to previous less snowy events. This is on SW winds, widely regarded as the worst for snow.

I am not saying your analysis is wrong, it is first class as always,

I agree was quite surprised to hear it had snowed in Swansea earlier as the conditions were certainly not all that great for snow.

NAE 18z still going with that theme of dew points generally above freezing until later in the evening.

I think there is a good chance tomorrow of a streamer setting up as the steering winds (@850hpa) turn to the NW and perhaps to the NNW for a short period of time later in the evening:

http://expert-images...012718_2618.gif

http://expert-images...012721_2618.gif

Like i said earlier though marginal conditions still but a wintry mix seems likely with snow over the hillier areas

[J10]

A hail shower here now with rain, but the temp in Mumbles has risen by 4c since mid afternoon, not looking that promising atm. although as the winds revert to NW it should turn much colder overnight.

[A Winter's Tale]

Quite surprised to hear that it also Snowed in Wales today as it wasn't really forecasted at all! Hope you all enjoy more snow for the coming weeks too!

GFS 18z wasn't a great run but by no means is winter over and even to say that there is still some hope is an understatement. I believe that there's still a lot to be played for and a real battle is about to commence between the scandi block and the jet stream. Even if the jet takes advantage, I do believe that high pressure will find it's way back into Scandinavia or even Greenland. Pretty confident of a good cold spell in February, the models are just trying to get their bearings and I believe that this conflict will continue well into February. I think it's not a case of will we get a cold spell, it's a case of when will it arrive as the sooner is the better as I do believe that the end of winter and start of Spring could be very interesting.

[Marcus_surfer]

Not seen the mountains but i bet Pen-Y-Fan has a nice covering, it was turning a wintry scene this afternoon with settling hail and slushy snow, my car was frozen solid this evening but temps have gone from 1.9C during the heavy snow to 4.3C now.

[keithlucky]

Latest Ecm Gem have got the front stalled smack bang on top of Wales ,uppers cold enough looking to be a good chance of decent snowfall and a Wales whiteout Sunday Monday.

Edited January 27, 2012 by keithlucky

[DeepSnow]

What are the chances of snow on sunday to lower levels? As i fear if it were to snow, i would be too low down and close to the coast :S

[welshwizard]

What are the chances of snow on sunday to lower levels? As i fear if it were to snow, i would be too low down and close to the coast :S

from what i have just heard on tv it is hit or miss for wales,i think it depends how cold it gets before the cloud and rain hit, by the looks somewhere will get snow but they dont know as yet,(well they didnt know on the tv). maybe some ov the guys on here got some charts that show how far accross wales the cold will get before the cloud hits. reading mad model thread this morn they very excited in there,if the charts stay as they are then look out.its going to get very very cold over the next week or so. but i havnt seen any of the more experienced guys posts this morn. i think it may be about height again sunday to monday as the real cold hasnt arrived as yet but you never know it could arrive just in time. also dont know how cold it will be up where the rain and snow are.Deepsnow i hope you get your snow as u miss out a lot due to your height but i think you could be lucky very soon if these charts do happen:-)

[DeepSnow]

from what i have just heard on tv it is hit or miss for wales,i think it depends how cold it gets before the cloud and rain hit, by the looks somewhere will get snow but they dont know as yet,(well they didnt know on the tv). maybe some ov the guys on here got some charts that show how far accross wales the cold will get before the cloud hits. reading mad model thread this morn they very excited in there,if the charts stay as they are then look out.its going to get very very cold over the next week or so. but i havnt seen any of the more experienced guys posts this morn. i think it may be about height again sunday to monday as the real cold hasnt arrived as yet but you never know it could arrive just in time. also dont know how cold it will be up where the rain and snow are.Deepsnow i hope you get your snow as u miss out a lot due to your height but i think you could be lucky very soon if these charts do happen:-)

Thank you welshwizard, I think this occation will be a miss, because with my hight quite low and only 4-5miles from the coast, it will more than likely be too warm. There seems a lot of potential for next week, even for me lol. Just hope that it will all fall into place now and we get the much needed cold and snow

[Phantom2]

huge potential for snow for Wales now Sunday/Monday in my opinion if the latest ECM is to be believed ..all depends on where the front stalls against the cold air from the East ..could be looking at prolonged falls especially for the hills !

[TonyH]

To me although probably cold Sunday into Monday, the fact that pressure remains high may well kill off the precipitation. So most likely patchy light rain below 100 m, but chance of a cm or 2 above 200 m, that's my stab at it.

[mikeocarroll]

Looking at the models this morning, I'm now more optimistic about the chances of snow on Sunday/Monday.

If we look at the FAX chart to see the location of the fronts, then we have:

Sunday morning: http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVI89.png a decaying front with the warm front behind

Sunday night/Monday morning: http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVK89.png the warm front arrives, which will have precipitation ahead of this, it is slow moving due to the block to the east so a chance of a fair amount of precipitation

Monday lunchtime http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVL89.png the front is still over us

Tuesday http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVO89.png the front has been turned around by the block and comes back over us as a cold front

Now it has to be said that these "battleground" situations are hard to predict and the front could stall further east, bringing most precipitation to the English midlands or even east anglia, but at the moment there is a fairly high confidence that most precip will be over wales especially east wales and the westernmost counties of england.

The bigger question though is whether it will fall as snow and there are some good upgrades to cold this morning which makes this more likely but is still marginal, perhaps a rain to sleet to snow event as Sunday-Monday progress.

From the GFS first of all which this morning shows and upgrade to the weekend cold even though the longer term cold prospects are poor with this model:

Sunday morning http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120127/00/57/prectypeuktopo.png starts as rain

Sunday lunchtime http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120127/00/60/prectypeuktopo.png turns to sleet

and then well http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120127/00/72/prectypeuktopo.png stays as sleet and http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120127/00/78/prectypeuktopo.png turns back to rain as the cold uppers stay in England http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120127/00/78/h850t850eu.png

If you look at the ECM for Sunday night though it shows the cold uppers much further west http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20120127/00/ecmt850.072.png - so this would mean the precip from the front falling as snow over us. UKMO also has the "battleground" further west: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/metoimages/20120127/00/met.96.png

It will be interesting to see this on NAE/NMM as it's another case of "nowcasting" as to where exactly the front ends up. Fingers and toes firmly crossed.

In the medium term the split in the modelling continues, compare and contrast ECM and GFS for next weekend:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20120127/00/ecmt850.216.png - cold easterly on the ECM

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120127/00/216/h850t850eu.png - mild SWerly with the GFS

Could go either way.

[andymusic]

GFS - and all other models today have finally given into the cold - latest GFS brings the -5 uppers over much earlier now and the cold block is putting up much more of a fight as expected - the low is even struggling to make it into Wales a little - this will be some fight - could still be a great snowfest for Wales come sunday!

Metos latest Wales forecast for Sunday to Tuesday

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Some uncertainty but rain spreading eastwards on Sunday, perhaps falling as snow on hills. Further rain on Monday and Tuesday, this heavy at times, and a continuing risk of snow.

GFS 06z has us down for -6 overnight tuesday into Wednesday and then an ice day on wednesday!

edit:- -7 wednesday night!!!!

GFS 06z keeps the block holding all the way through it's run this time - amazing - the cold is here to stay (we hope) - and the atlantic gets held up - with any "incursions" turning readily to snow!

Sunday's snow for Wales - TWO DAYS AWAY

First shower of the day - cold wintry - hailstones and (update) 2 huge rainbows

Edited January 27, 2012 by andymusic

[worldairgroup]

GFS - and all other models today have finally given into the cold - latest GFS brings the -5 uppers over much earlier now and the cold block is putting up much more of a fight as expected - the low is even struggling to make it into Wales a little - this will be some fight - could still be a great snowfest for Wales come sunday!

Metos latest Wales forecast for Sunday to Tuesday

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Some uncertainty but rain spreading eastwards on Sunday, perhaps falling as snow on hills. Further rain on Monday and Tuesday, this heavy at times, and a continuing risk of snow.

GFS 06z has us down for -6 overnight tuesday into Wednesday and then an ice day on wednesday!

edit:- -7 wednesday night!!!!

GFS 06z keeps the block holding all the way through it's run this time - amazing - the cold is here to stay (we hope) - and the atlantic gets held up - with any "incursions" turning readily to snow!

Sunday's snow for Wales - TWO DAYS AWAY

First shower of the day - cold wintry - hailstones and (update) 2 huge rainbows

mad one that was andy!! two huge rainbows over tesco upper boat - guess theres no pots of gold at the end of them! probably in tescos pockets! LOL

[Blackjack]

Yellow warning from MetO for Monday.

Things are looking up.

Heeerrre weeeeee gooooo

[andymusic]

Yellow warning from MetO for Monday.

Things are looking up.

Heeerrre weeeeee gooooo

Yep

12 midnight sunday to 12 midday monday

Rain edging in from the west could turn to snow on the leading edge, with the potential for accumulations of several cm, especially on hills. The pubic (I think they mean public - OOPSSSS! - website guy or girl must be getting awful excited) are advised to be aware of the potential for disruption to traffic. At this stage there is considerable uncertainty so please check for further updates.

Edited January 27, 2012 by andymusic

[Marcus_surfer]

If temperatures continue at 6C or 7C each day till this sunday "battleground" we wont be getting any snow here! Whats the temperatures looking from sunday onwards?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yep

12 midnight to 12 midday

Rain edging in from the west could turn to snow on the leading edge, with the potential for accumulations of several cm, especially on hills. The pubic (I think they mean public - OOPSSSS! - website guy or girl must be getting awful excited) are advised to be aware of the potential for disruption to traffic. At this stage there is considerable uncertainty so please check for further updates.

LOL @ pubic

Sorry, couldn't resist

[A.J]

Afternoon chaps, I'll be closing this thread shortly as it's 54 pages long now...I'll open a new thread and post links in the next few minutes

[A.J]

Ok, a shiny new thread for you to enjoy here --------------> http://forum.netweat...cussion-part-2/