The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 2

[A.J]

Ok chaps & ladies, just in time for tonights model outputs, a fresh thread to discuss the incoming threat of wind & rain, or will it be snowmaggedon ???

Previous thread here --------> http://forum.netweat...d/page__st__660

Edited December 14, 2011 by ajpoolshark

[beccaboo]

Whoop! New thread!!! And eagerly awaiting the arrival of new charts - I looked at the current ones and didn't like them

[Bolton67]

I looked at the current ones and didn't like them

Why? no signs of hairdryer winds from the SW.

[MKN]

So this was the last two NAE outputs, lets see what the 18z has to offer, wont be long now

[beccaboo]

Why? no signs of hairdryer winds from the SW.

Well, (and bear in mind that I am very very amateur!) I looked at the UK Precip and the Snow Risk and they looked like rain!!

[PolarWarsaw]

Ive got to admit, im still worried about how marginal its going to be here tommorow night. We need to tap into as much cold air and need as much evaporating cooling as possible. If the heavier PPN doesn't make it here, I can forsee an extremely sleety and highly frustrating night tommorow.

[Chunky Flake]

I hope we get some snow tomorrow night. I think it is going to be waiting and seeing tomorrow evening . The weather forecasters are not really nailing anything down at the moment . It would be great to have 5 or 6 inches of snow on Friday morning.

[Serendipity]

well yes 5 or 6 inches would be nice but I don't think there's much chance of that! I'll be amazed if I get 1 cm!

*snort* don't tell my husband I said that

Edited December 14, 2011 by Serendipity

[TonyH]

My updated weather guide for the rest of the week:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71920-wales-regional-weather-discussion-snow/page__pid__2185997__st__40#entry2185997

[Chunky Flake]

From reading a few posts it could well be blowing my head off time.

[Gord]

I'm expecting to see snowflakes fall...but not settle. Not here where I live anyway.

I could see it settling in other parts of this area though. The Rowley Regis to Tividale area may see some on the ground. Maybe Brierley Hill as well. I would certainly hope that Clent and Lickey get a good covering. If they can't, then there's no hope for any of the rest of us!

[Mark Neal.]

Why? no signs of hairdryer winds from the SW.

Something Ian Brown, will be looking at... but never happening! One day he will get it right!

[MKN]

My updated weather guide for the rest of the week:

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2185997

Not really fancying anywhere in this region to see much settling then?

[PolarWarsaw]

Still seems a lot of un-certainty to me. Definetely going to be one of thoose nights to lampost watch. I dont expect anything here, so if nothing comes il try not to be to frustrated.

[syed2878]

local bbc radio forecast for tomorrow night heavy rain turning to snow

[Costa Del Fal]

NAE 18z (Using Precip Accumulation charts only for now) looks fantastic for the Central Midlands especially again. Perhaps a little less for the N Midlands on this run. Black Country, Birmingham, Malvern, Shropshire hills & Chilterns etc could do particularly well out of this especially if any marginality comes to issue.

[dvdfjojo]

I know it's only 24 hours away but I can't help but remember last year when we had dumping forecasts constantly up until the day before, only for it to snow all around me (other than Leicester who had the same thing). Brum had nearly a foot and we had less than a centimetre. It was gutting and everything seemed so perfect in the run up to it.

This time, I really think it'll be rain, it just doesn't feel quite cold enough. I'm hoping for a lovely surprise but I'm not going to be too disappointed like I was last year if it doesn't materialise.

[MKN]

NAE 18z (Using Precip Accumulation charts only for now) looks fantastic for the Central Midlands especially again. Perhaps a little less for the N Midlands on this run. Black Country, Birmingham, Malvern, Shropshire hills & Chilterns etc could do particularly well out of this especially if any marginality comes to issue.

Looks a good 50miles further south compared to earlier

[Costa Del Fal]

I'm expecting to see snowflakes fall...but not settle. Not here where I live anyway.

I could see it settling in other parts of this area though. The Rowley Regis to Tividale area may see some on the ground. Maybe Brierley Hill as well. I would certainly hope that Clent and Lickey get a good covering. If they can't, then there's no hope for any of the rest of us!

Tbh given the forecasts I do expect a covering here with elevation upto around 150m on our road. Marginality hasnt been highlighted too much extent so the MetO dont see it affecting many above 100m. Stourbridge would be more marginal than here as I saw especially in February last year. But who knows, it could be a win win all round.

Edited December 14, 2011 by Blizzards

[MKN]

Gfs is a disaster do not look at it and pray the 00z is different

Edited December 14, 2011 by SnowTornado

[Isolated Frost]

The 18z pushes that low VERY southwards, into the channel... The NMM and METO disagree so I will probably veer towards their analysis for now.

[Arctic Hare]

Seriously marginal for me, I'd have thought. Even my 90m might make the difference over down by the Severn (which is about 20m) but I think the odds are, just, in favour of its not quite being cold enough here. By gum it's going to be interesting, though! (Unless the low scoots way to the south and misses us altogether, of course...)

Edited December 14, 2011 by Arctic Hare

[snow freak]

[Costa Del Fal]

Wow, 18z GFS not good at all! Dont look!

Thankfully its aginst other models for now anyway!

[FreezeManiac]

Oh dear... GFS is poor