The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 2

[Zakos]

this is still 12z

yeah just realised that.... damn.

still, the 18z doesnt downgrade the ppn, only the snow risk, which can and has change within 6 hours so no biggie

[fizz511]

Everyone ignore the GFS!!

Blimey - my stomach feels like I've just stepped off a roller coaster ride!

Not going to look at any more charts (unless it's from behind a cushion!).

NAE once again upgrades snow potential!!

[A.J]

I did say yesterday aj these low's have a reputation for tracking south in the end, how many times has it happened before, TONS!, I never trust the NAE anyway, especially after forecasting heavy snow for 27th December last year when the GFS was saying know from days out.

The snow risk remains Friday Night - Sunday Morning with a potential for a Cheshire Gap streamer, uppers have downgraded a bit but snow is still likely before high pressure ridges in Sunday.

Yes you did Conor, but you're writing off the entire system based on one run?......a very brave call IMHO, and at the risk of sounding a tad sarcastic, you should send your CV to the met office, you know something they don't!

Just read some of the replies I've missed, jeez keep your chins up! some real knee-jerk negativity in here!

[fizz511]

Sorry Zakos - trying to reply via phone, ended up putting my comment in middle of your post, not under!

It's the stress I tell you....

[kmanmx]

Yes you did Conor, but you're writing off the entire system based on one run?......a very brave call IMHO, and at the risk of sounding a tad sarcastic, you should send your CV to the met office, you know something they don't!

Just read some of the replies I've missed, jeez keep your chins up! some real knee-jerk negativity in here!

Well yeah, the GFS has removed most chances of snow and the NAE seems to totally got rid of any accumalating snow in the midlands compared to the 12z run. I still hope it's wrong.. need the NMM to cooperate nicely.

How accurate is the GFS in the short term on these type of events ?

I hope it bumps north again in the next run but from what others are saying that seems unlikely

Edited December 14, 2011 by kmanmx

[Zakos]

snow lovers do not loose hope! meteogroup have updated their forecast literally minutes ago and now shows a snowfest in my area!!

http://www.weatherca...D0tMQ%253D%253D

Sorry Zakos - trying to reply via phone, ended up putting my comment in middle of your post, not under!

It's the stress I tell you....

No probs mate, I know how hard posting is on phones! the stress is getting to me too!

Edited December 14, 2011 by Zakos

[PolarWarsaw]

If im honest, it doesn't feel remotely cold enough for snow anyway, so perhaps the NAE is picking up on something.

[dvdfjojo]

At this sort of range, the NMM is usually closest to what actually happens in my opinion. Another half an hour and we'll see what that says.

[A.J]

If there is no snow in our area, the NW Member Suicide Watch from last winter will have to be re-initiated by the sounds of it....lol......It never fails to amaze me how peeps get so wound up by the weather..It's not the end of the world!...(that's next year.. :winky: )

[conor123]

Yes you did Conor, but you're writing off the entire system based on one run?......a very brave call IMHO, and at the risk of sounding a tad sarcastic, you should send your CV to the met office, you know something they don't!

Just read some of the replies I've missed, jeez keep your chins up! some real knee-jerk negativity in here!

I'm not basing it on one run though im basing it on similar situations over the past few winters where lows have suddenly tracked southwards and just stating that this has now probably begun.

It's not even being negative its knowing after years of these events tracking south last minute to be cautious to save dissapointment...but I can't win unless I say the low's going to track north and bring blizzards so im not going to post again in this thread until the fronts here.

Edited December 14, 2011 by conor123

[PolarWarsaw]

Haha midlands today were very clever then. Said 'potential of snow moving from north to south' but didnt show the graphic, so we couldnt see the northerly limit etc. Very clever indeed. All up in the air again then.

[dvdfjojo]

But it is, when it snows all around you and there's a snowshield above your house, it's just awful. We have a few good drinks and a late night of fun and frolics leading up to the disappointment though so it's not all bad :-)

[cyclonic happiness]

If there is no snow in our area, the NW Member Suicide Watch from last winter will have to be re-initiated by the sounds of it....lol......It never fails to amaze me how peeps get so wound up by the weather..It's not the end of the world!...(that's next year.. :winky: )

But I would like to see at least one snow event before it does end?!!!!!

What makes the bloody midlands so special that we get so little weather nowadays?

I seriously hope the pub run has been to left trouser leged to make a proper judgement about the positioning of the low, the dam thing has moved nearly a 1000 miles south over the past few days??

[A.J]

I'm not basing it on one run though im basing it on similar situations over the past few winters where lows have suddenly tracked southwards and just stating that this has now probably begun.

It's not even being negative its knowing after years of these events tracking south last minute to be cautious to save dissapointment...but I can't win unless I say the low's going to track north and bring blizzards so im not going to post again until the fronts here.

An utterly ridiculous thing to post, it's merely debate, nothing more, nothing less....One of my remits is to ensure threads are objective and to encourage debate & discussion....You've made your point, a vary valid point, however the other side of the debate has to be raised....Personally I couldn't care less if it snowed or not tomorrow night, so I remain objective and try and steer the debate/discussion forwards, not surpress

[azores92]

the latest bbc has gone back to more of a wintry mix, certainly more marginal than earlier, but personally im glad as i have to get home on friday! you have to fear the worst these days folks, when it is marginal 9 times out of ten you will be disappointed imo.

[NorthantsSnow]

That was a pleasant surprise seeing all that white on the BBC 10.30 forecast. Probably old news but overnight Thu into Fri looking very interesting. NAE looks pretty good too, GFS less so.

[MKN]

Nmm joins the gfs in afraid.

[Costa Del Fal]

NOGAPS 18z agreeing with the GFS 18z unfortunately and so does the NMM now.

Annoyingly any confidence that we seemed to have earlier has taken a set back but still all to play for and changes will occur to the very last minute.

Edited December 14, 2011 by Blizzards

[FreezeManiac]

Ah the weather is so frustating...

[PolarWarsaw]

I watched ITV (yes i no there rubbish) but they refused to show the graphic for tommorow night and stated that things are changing constantly so it could be windy and rainy or it could be dry (in there words). BEEB at 10.30 showed things looking slightly less snowy than they did at 18.25 this evening and I fully expect that by the time the 1.30pm forecast comes tommorow the northern extent of PPN with be the M4 corridor. Only one run, but looking on the amusing side of things, how often does this happen to us in the midlands, in comparison to northern scotland? etc.

[dvdfjojo]

Exactly Blizzards, it's always like this with snow - hopefully, we'll be lamp-post & radar watching this time tomorrow night :-)

[NorthantsSnow]

I've obviously been living under a rock and missed all the buildup to this. Probably for the best if it goes the way of a pear at the last minute !

[azores92]

you have to expect this with channel lows, the devil is in the detail, absolute nightmare to forecast and i have to say the forecasting agencies have to notify this in their forecasts!

[kmanmx]

Precipitation is heading fairly north.. not all is lost, the precip only needs to be 50miles east and 50miles north to give at least some of us a good covering according to NMM.

I watched ITV (yes i no there rubbish) but they refused to show the graphic for tommorow night and stated that things are changing constantly so it could be windy and rainy or it could be dry (in there words). BEEB at 10.30 showed things looking slightly less snowy than they did at 18.25 this evening and I fully expect that by the time the 1.30pm forecast comes tommorow the northern extent of PPN with be the M4 corridor. Only one run, but looking on the amusing side of things, how often does this happen to us in the midlands, in comparison to northern scotland? etc.

It's just where we are i'm afraid. I blame it all on Ireland. If that country wasn't in the way, i swear we'd do a lot better from weather coming from west.

Being in the center of a country is always going to be problematic when it comes to reiceving precip coming from the sea.

Edited December 14, 2011 by kmanmx

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS 18z ensembles available on meteociel still show a 50/50 split with some keeping things as they were today with the other half following the Op.