The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 2

[Herefordweather]

Heavy rain here, 2.2c

[Gord]

Still dry here despite radar suggesting otherwise. Think that the precipitation isn't reaching the ground yet and we need a bit more mixing first.

Have to say I'm slightly more optimistic than I was earlier...but still some hurdles to go...

[Adzyy]

According to MetO... Rain, to sleet, to snow, to sleet here. Not very optimistic still...

[Hooverman]

Playing back the radar it's more a case of the band developing further east over the mountains, the Cardigan Bay stuff is fairly static.

For the record, drizzly here 2.4c, DP 1.7c

Yep its my eyes, The cambrians seem to be stopping it at the moment.

[ISAAC]

A more eastwards track of the low in gfs, slight downgrade for west midlands

[kmanmx]

Sorry but someone said that the precip was 50 miles away, was 6 hours away and so was moving at 0.8 MPH? How on earth can 0.8 x6 =50!

LOL!

Well I hope you midlanders get some snow tonight.

That was me. I somehow calculated it as being 60hours, not 6 I guess i should times it by 10 then. So 8mph. Still wrong !

[Brum Watcher]

A more eastwards track of the low in gfs, slight downgrade for west midlands

its actually much slower if u look at the gfs for the time. just more prec as it has moved slightly further north

[kold weather]

Looks more marginal for the Midlands on the 18z GFS though the opay-off may well be that the heavier precip forecasted may also help to drag things down somewhat.

Still looks like snow will get going in the very early morning hours but maybe a slightly shorter period of time compared to the 12z suite.

[kmanmx]

Radar isn't very reliable for me tonight. Should of been fine/light rain for the past 20 minutes, so far nothing.

[Gord]

Light rain just started here...

[Hooverman]

Little Ribbon of Precip showing leaving the coast of Eire at the mo, heading our way?

[beccaboo]

Just took the puppy out for a tiddle and still dry here (apart from where he tiddled!!)

[Brum Watcher]

As you can see where the low is now and where it should be according to GFS at 12z. I cant see it being there in time of GFS

Edited December 15, 2011 by Brum Watcher

[Hooverman]

Heavy rain here now - hitting window.

[Jackfrost]

Just a shout to you Midlanders, it's almost certainly snowing (and settling) on the A465 Head of the Valleys "Highest Point" cam in South Wales.

Not too far away from your territory either! Although the words "Highest Point" suggest you need to have height on your side :winky: Sleet falling here.

http://www.bbc.co.uk.../trafficcameras

Edited December 15, 2011 by jackfrost

[mackerel sky]

I'll attach this again. This was an event which had 8 hours of steady rainfall, thawing some of the lying snow - then quickly transitioned to snow dumping 8 inches. A more marginal event than tonight at face value. There was of course the benefit of lying snow which can influence the boundary layer - the only experience i've had of snow falling with 850s of -2C. Well possibly not true, but I can only base that on model watching since 2003.

Edited December 15, 2011 by mackerel sky

[kold weather]

Little Ribbon of Precip showing leaving the coast of Eire at the mo, heading our way?

Area over N.Wales into the Irish Sea and also the area over Central Wales/W.Mifdlands currently are the areas to watch when it comes to snow.

The good news is that the NAE swings the opposite way and slightly upgrades the threat of snow, especially in eastern Midlands which goes along with the GFS idea of the precip being heavier than expected.

[kmanmx]

Wow, alot of people watching. More people should post.. the more input and weather reports the better

[Serendipity]

Well it has been raining here for a good while now. DP still high, temp still high.

[Higher Ground]

0.9C here, light/moderate RAIN

[Herefordweather]

Definately sleet in Hereford now.

[chapmanraven]

It's cloudy here, but so far, it's dry. Ancient thermometer reading 3c to 4c, it feels a lot colder though.

[sicko2ndbest]

What do people think will happen accumulation wise (at best)

My guess is

West mids 2cm

East mids 4cm

South mids 4cm

North mids 0cm

?

[weirpig]

very light sleet here

[Costa Del Fal]

Light rain here now but im sure there is already a few wet snowflakes in it. May be wrong though.