Tropical Low 1, Australia.

[Konstantinos]

IDQ20008

SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE

AT 0655UTC 21 DECEMBER 2011

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION

At 0600 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 50 nautical miles of

latitude sixteen decimal one south (16.1S)

longitude one hundred and fifty seven decimal one east (157.1E)

Recent movement : southeast at 12 knots

Maximum winds : 30 knots

Central pressure: 1001 hPa

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 hours.

AREA AFFECTED

Within 50 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST

Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 35 knots by 1800 UTC 21

December, increasing further to 40 knots by 0600 UTC 22 December with very

rough seas and low to moderate swells developing.

Forecast positions

At 1800 UTC 21 December: Within 80 nautical miles of 17.4 south 157.3 east

Central pressure 997 hPa.

Winds to 35 knots near centre.

At 0600 UTC 22 December: Within 110 nautical miles of 18.6 south 157.1 east

Central pressure 994 hPa.

Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS

All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular

weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either

email to [email protected] or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241

through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 21 December 2011.

WEATHER BRISBANE

http://www.bom.gov.a...pl?IDQ20008.txt

Edited December 21, 2011 by Konstantinos

[Coast]

The Top End is preparing for a cyclone to develop off the Northern Territory coast on Saturday.

The weather bureau says a tropical low in the Arafura Sea, north-east of Darwin, is likely to become a Category One cyclone early on Saturday morning. The bureau says seas around the Top End of Australia are the warmest in the world at the moment, creating the perfect conditions for a cyclone to form. A cyclone watch has been declared across most of the Territory coastline, stretching from Dundee Beach to Nhulunbuy, including Darwin.

Authorities are working to warn people in remote communities to prepare, with residents being told to stock up on food, water and medicine. Health Minister Kon Vatskalis says the Royal Darwin Hospital is prepared for the possibility of a disaster, preparing a field hospital ready in case a cyclone affects remote areas in the Territory. Police at a remote Territory community that got a battering by a cyclone in 2005 say people are well-prepared this time.

Croker Island is is not far from where a cyclone is expected to form and local police Sergeant Jeff Pickering says the people are ready for it. "We have completed all of our essential clean-up," he said. "Everyone is aware of the state of where things are."

Tiwi Islands chief executive Alan Hudson says the communities north of Darwin are preparing. "Most of the houses on the islands, and particularly the new houses, are cyclone-rated," he said. "We do accommodate some people in our office complex but ... most people know which houses are cyclone-rated and that is where they gravitate to." Northern Territory insurance company TIO says it has stopped accepting new requests for insurance cover after the declaration of a cyclone watch. The Somerville Community Services in Darwin is making sure it is prepared if disabled people have to be moved to evacuation centres.

http://www.abc.net.a...roundup/3743840

And another tropical storm is likely to form into a cyclone off Queensland during the weekend.

The weather bureau said the Queensland storm is 1200km east of Cairns and tracking south. But unlike Cyclone Yasi, which affected most of Queensland earlier this year, it is not expected to move onshore. The weather bureau is more concerned about the storm brewing in the Arafura Sea, north of Darwin.

The NT News reports parts of the Northern Territory's coast - including Darwin - have been put on a cyclone watch because of the storm. The latest weather bureau modelling predicts the cyclone will form at 4am tomorrow. Saturday will also be the 37th anniversary of the devastation caused by Cyclone Tracy. Weather bureau senior forecaster Angelina Prasad said there was a 50 to 100 per cent chance this storm would form a cyclone.

"It has got everything right going for it," she said. "It is over warm water, it has got favourable winds developing around it, and it is going to stay over water for the next few days." Weather Channel senior meteorologist Tom Saunders said this storm was unpredictable and did not fit any weather models.

Cyclone Tracy started as a tropical low that formed on December 20, 1974 and gradually intensified before heading away from the coast. But on December 24 it changed course and headed directly towards Darwin. Despite the warnings, the city's residents were largely unprepared. Forty-nine people were killed, along with a further 22 at sea. Most of the city's buildings were totally destroyed or badly damaged.

http://www.news.com....1#ixzz1hFmPdOKR

[Konstantinos]

IDW24000

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN

Issued at 8:51 pm WST on Tuesday 24 January 2012

BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Tropical Low was located at 8 pm WST near 16.0S 111.3E,

that is 720 km north northwest of Exmouth, moving west at 23 kilometres per

hour.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Wednesday as it moves

towards the west or west southwest. Late on Wednesday or on Thursday the system

may take a more southerly track, bringing it closer to the coast.

Gales are not expected in coastal communities on Wednesday or Thursday, however

there is a possibility that coastal communities near the North West Cape,

including Coral Bay, Exmouth and Onslow, will experience gales on Friday.

Rainfall is likely to increase later in the week in coastal parts of the

Pilbara and on the west coast north of Cape Cuvier.

Abnormally large swells may be experienced near the West Kimberley and Pilbara

coasts due to the influence of a strong monsoonal flow to the north east of the

system.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3 am WST.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW24000.txt

[Somerset Squall]

There really is some insane amounts of convection associated with this low to the northwest of Exmouth. JTWC and BOM expect the low to become a tropical cyclone within the next 24hrs.

The whole of northern Australia looks very wet at the moment:

Edited January 24, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[Konstantinos]

Yes, and I see there is 98S in northern Australia. And this is in land. I am surprised.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=austwest&sname=98S&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0