Model Output Discussion - 26th December - 1st January

[Mark Neal.]

Seems like a case of some people are getting over exciting at signs and others underplaying.. For people who are new to this thread, its no good. There are only a few people who write in this thread who are honest and not winding others up. Get a grip i'm afraid. I'm glad of the signs in the last few days, but we have a long way to go, until i see all models on-board i will then start to be more positive. In the meantime improvements for the Gfs Essembles and Ecm of late(excluding the 12z). We will get there, as i keep saying PATIENCE is needed.

Regards,

Mark

[john mac]

http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?28-0

as the GFS swings the ECM swings back- that is a pony & trap chart- Lets see where it sits in the ensemble Suite--- a far far distant chart from this morning & the 12z suite

S

I would say more like a grumble & grunt chart steve lol. But lets hope its an outlier.

[Gibby]

Still nothing to excite anyone as far as the UK is concerned on the output tonight in my opinion. It is true that the jet digs further south than of late in the upcoming week with the prospect of less mild and sometimes chilly conditions prevailing but with high pressure away to the SW as persistant as ever this is likely to be temporary. There may be subtle differences in Synoptics thousands of miles away but as I have said before until we're rid of that Azores High and it's constant ridging towards Europe the jet will continue to just roar over the top delivering spells of mild and wIndy weather interspersed with short cool zonal periods with more showery conditions. When I see evidence to the contrary I'l be be the first to highlight it . My comments to some may seem short sighted but with the vast majority of the ensembles only showing moderate cooling over the coming weeks I feel that we have to believe what they are telling us and buckle up for at least another two weeks of this zonal mild westerly based weather.

[john mac]

Sorry to burst your bubble, but looking at the charts and the reliable time frame shows mild and a continuation of what we have been seeing.

If we went by your post just now, then just about every post in here should be deleted, but because they are ramping cold it will never happen. All of the people forecasting cold in here are showing charts or patterns that are well into FI, which is called FI for a reason.

All of these said posts are actually not helping people, not my post which was backed up using charts showing mild weather for the next 10 days at least.

Sorry i didnt realise day 10 was in the reliable timeframe?. In fact the real reliable timeframe is up to day5. And yes up to day5 it will be mild at times with a much cooler day tomorrow.

Edited December 28, 2011 by john mac

[phil nw.]

Still nothing to excite anyone as far as the UK is concerned on the output tonight in my opinion. It is true that the jet digs further south than of late in the upcoming week with the prospect of less mild and sometimes chilly conditions prevailing but with high pressure away to the SW as persistant as ever this is likely to be temporary. There may be subtle differences in Synoptics thousands of miles away but as I have said before until we're rid of that Azores High and it's constant ridging towards Europe the jet will continue to just roar over the top delivering spells of mild and wIndy weather interspersed with short cool zonal periods with more showery conditions. When I see evidence to the contrary I'l be be the first to highlight it . My comments to some may seem short sighted but with the vast majority of the ensembles only showing moderate cooling over the coming weeks I feel that we have to believe what they are telling us and buckle up for at least another two weeks of this zonal mild westerly based weather.

Yes a realistic summary there Gibby.

The 2 constants in all the models are the core of the Vortex mainly over Greenland and that ever present Azores High.That setup gives no room for anything cold.

Edited December 28, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[phil nw.]

It seems that there`s a lot of ,shall i say,over aggressive postings in here.

It must stop now ,we don`t enjoy editing or deleting peoples posts but we will have no choice if this continues.

I say again if you don`t wish to bother saying what the models actually show-FI or not-then either post in the Winter thread or the moaning thread if you wish to let off steam.

Thankyou people.

[Cal]

Some intensely low heights to the NW on the ECM, with an Azores/Bartlett combo that would not be going anywhere for some time.

Agree on that one Ian, certainly in the short to medium term.

GFS Ensembles for Lincs (12hrs) again in the mild kilter (op run) apart from between the 7-9th Jan. Nothing too mild and nothing too cold, the mean not a lot to write home about, one or two members jumping on the cold theme right at the end.

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20111228/12/t850Lincolnshire.png

ECM Ensembles, anyone now what time they are out?

[Frosty.]

Have you read the last couple of pages of this thread??? There are changes afoot.. what it will mean for us is too early to say but the models, while indicating a continuing zonal picture for the next few days at least, are also showing changes in the polar regions which IF they verify, will have a knock-on effect for us down the line. To say time is running out, on the 28th December, is IMHO a ridiculous statement to make. No wonder newer members of this board get confused at times...

I hope you are joking, the models show a few more weeks of continuing zonal and it's due to get milder again in the run up to new years day, then next week looks mildish or average but a bit cooler at times in the north but nothing to shout about for the foreseeable future which is also how the met office see things, all the virtual eye candy is beyond reliable forecasting limits.

[phil nw.]

Agree on that one Ian, certainly in the short to medium term.

GFS Ensembles for Lincs (12hrs) again in the mild kilter (op run) apart from between the 7-9th Jan. Nothing too mild and nothing too cold, the mean not a lot to write home about, one or two members jumping on the cold theme right at the end.

http://hw.nwstatic.c...incolnshire.png

ECM Ensembles, anyone now what time they are out?

Here are the short ECM ens.Cal

Close to the mean and nothing cold showing at the moment.

[Cal]

Here are the short ECM ens.Cal

Close to the mean and nothing cold showing at the moment.

Ta Phil, generally good agreement apart from the last 3rd.

[phil nw.]

Ta Phil, generally good agreement apart from the last 3rd.

Cal i may have shown the00z -it was the date along the top-28/12/11 that threw me-if you look at start time on graph the lne begins at 00hrs on 27th-sorry about that.they should update soon.

[whitestuff]

I hope you are joking, the models show a few more weeks of continuing zonal and it's due to get milder again in the run up to new years day, then next week looks mildish or average but a bit cooler at times in the north but nothing to shout about for the foreseeable future which is also how the met office see things, all the virtual eye candy is beyond reliable forecasting limits.

So the " few more weeks of zonal " are in the reliable time frame and the eye candy is "beyond reliable forecating limits" ha ha talk about biased opinion!!!

I came on this board an hour ago to see there may be signs of change and now winter is over?

I shall just look for the people that I trust and and skip across the rest.

[Biggin]

So the " few more weeks of zonal " are in the reliable time frame and the eye candy is "beyond reliable forecating limits" ha ha talk about biased opinion!!!

I came on this board an hour ago to see there may be signs of change and now winter is over?

I shall just look for the people that I trust and and skip across the rest.

Agree, avoid the obvious usual windup merchants

[nick sussex]

In typical model fashion as one model raises hopes the other knocks them down!

Putting the operational runs aside not much change in the CPC charts from NOAA this evening, still showing the Azores high centred in the Atlantic and lower heights in central Europe.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

I think the ECM operational run is disappointing especially as it wants to lower heights again to the north although this is in FI.

The GFS has improved but still hardly likely to have one stampeding the local sledge shop!

So one step forward and one step back this evening.

The shorter ECM ensembles are basically average, still waiting for the extended ones to come out, again although the ECM is a very good model we've seen once again it can be too progressive in splitting the PV, for this reason until a proper split is shown within 168hrs then I'd be wary of taking that at face value.

In terms of the overall pattern that looks solidly agreed on upto 10 days, although the finer detail in terms of how much displacement of the Azores high takes place and how far west those lower heights to the east come is still open to some changes.

After that hard to say, as frustrating as it is for members that want to see real winter weather we're still waiting for real signs of this to show up in the output.

We haven't yet got to January so certainly there is time but of course nothing can happen until we see the PV dislodged from its current Greenland home.

[cold snap]

been following the models .been busy.,have not posted in a while

just one main point that needs constant attention no matter what model we are looking at we need rid of that displaced high,it needs to go ,i when i mean go i mean go.the pattern we want if its stubborn cold you after will not happen to we remove it ,the colder solutions cant mature with its existence.theres no work around.

Edited December 28, 2011 by cold snap

[recklessabandon]

Loving the fact that despite not being able to stand up outside and having the chimney stack nearly ripped off the roof, such an event has barely appeared on the model discussion. You could be mistaken for thinking this is an Atlantic storm that just hasn't appeared on the models.... .... lots of interesting stuff going on right now let alone FI, not least that for the 2nd time this winter surface winds have exceeded 150mph in the UK (Cairngorm AWS and broken it!)....seems NA zonality and storms just aren't enough for discussion....

[cold snap]

In typical model fashion as one model raises hopes the other knocks them down!

Putting the operational runs aside not much change in the CPC charts from NOAA this evening, still showing the Azores high centred in the Atlantic and lower heights in central Europe.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

I think the ECM operational run is disappointing especially as it wants to lower heights again to the north although this is in FI.

The GFS has improved but still hardly likely to have one stampeding the local sledge shop!

So one step forward and one step back this evening.

The shorter ECM ensembles are basically average, still waiting for the extended ones to come out, again although the ECM is a very good model we've seen once again it can be too progressive in splitting the PV, for this reason until a proper split is shown within 168hrs then I'd be wary of taking that at face value.

In terms of the overall pattern that looks solidly agreed on upto 10 days, although the finer detail in terms of how much displacement of the Azores high takes place and how far west those lower heights to the east come is still open to some changes.

After that hard to say, as frustrating as it is for members that want to see real winter weather we're still waiting for real signs of this to show up in the output.

We haven't yet got to January so certainly there is time but of course nothing can happen until we see the PV dislodged from its current Greenland home.

great post nick what we do without you here,

maybe im on my own on this.but as things stand ,and i know things are poor.pre18z ,is the ukmo the best chart at present?

[nick sussex]

Loving the fact that despite not being able to stand up outside and having the chimney stack nearly ripped off the roof, such an event has barely appeared on the model discussion. You could be mistaken for thinking this is an Atlantic storm that just hasn't appeared on the models.... .... lots of interesting stuff going on right now let alone FI, not least that for the 2nd time this winter surface winds have exceeded 150mph in the UK (Cairngorm AWS and broken it!)....seems NA zonality and storms just aren't enough for discussion....

You make a good point, in my defence I did mention this yesterday but it didn't garner much interest in here.

Unfortunately the search for cold means that unless a Martian landed on the Buckingham Palace lawn it still wouldn't raise much interest in here!

I think we all need to hold our hands up and admit it should have got more attention.

[J10]

GFS has gone with this at T+240, not a massively flat pattern which was a big improvement on recent charts.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2401.png

ECM has had a series of charts over recent days showing a NW SE flow.

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.192.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.216.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.240.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.216.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.240.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.216.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.240.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.192.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.216.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.240.png

Before tonight's setback

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../ecm500.240.png

Many of the above charts suggest a cool zonal period of weather if not a decent wintry shot.

Zonal weather does seem likely for the reasonable future, but whether or not it is mild zonal, or a colder zonal more akin to what we had before Christmas is another matter.

[phil nw.]

Loving the fact that despite not being able to stand up outside and having the chimney stack nearly ripped off the roof, such an event has barely appeared on the model discussion. You could be mistaken for thinking this is an Atlantic storm that just hasn't appeared on the models.... .... lots of interesting stuff going on right now let alone FI, not least that for the 2nd time this winter surface winds have exceeded 150mph in the UK (Cairngorm AWS and broken it!)....seems NA zonality and storms just aren't enough for discussion....

You make a fair point.

We all have different reasons for viewing the models and those seeking cold weather will instinctively search through the output and sometimes gloss over the events already upon us--it`s just how it is.

[recklessabandon]

You make a good point, in my defence I did mention this yesterday but it didn't garner much interest in here.

Unfortunately the search for cold means that unless a Martian landed on the Buckingham Palace lawn it still wouldn't raise much interest in here!

I think we all need to hold our hands up and admit it should have got more attention.

Sorry Nick I clearly missed your post on this, my bad.

It is a shame, I love cold and snow, but we live in the UK, and we far are more likely to experience some 'great' storms and very varied synoptic solutions than Atlantic blocking and deep cold. Sometimes we should embrace what we have and also remember, it is because of our highly dynamic and varied climate that we have such an entrenched love of weather and climate, and such an advanced METO. Some pretty exciting stuff going on out there tonight, and looking at the models, plenty more to come in the short to medium term. I would be interested to know if anyone has a record for the number of times in a season Cairngorm recorded more than 150mph....?

[JP1972]

Loving the fact that despite not being able to stand up outside and having the chimney stack nearly ripped off the roof, such an event has barely appeared on the model discussion. You could be mistaken for thinking this is an Atlantic storm that just hasn't appeared on the models.... .... lots of interesting stuff going on right now let alone FI, not least that for the 2nd time this winter surface winds have exceeded 150mph in the UK (Cairngorm AWS and broken it!)....seems NA zonality and storms just aren't enough for discussion....

Quite agree with you, here in Newcastle it's blowing a major gale at the moment.

But as you say, people are only prepared to post about one weather type that isn't on the charts at the expense of what is happening right now in parts of the country.

Never mind, I'm sure when strong winds or cold and snow are nailed on for the south east the thread will come to life

[nick sussex]

great post nick what we do without you here,

maybe im on my own on this.but as things stand ,and i know things are poor.pre18z ,is the ukmo the best chart at present?

Thanks, to be honest the UKMO is just as uninspiring as the rest of the output.

There are crumbs of comfort across all the output but no matter how many positives I can list the one big obstacle is that PV which basically nullifies all those, take for example the medium term amplification in the USA, you'd normally expect a good retrogression of the Azores high given that eastern US troughing, unfortunately the PV stops that so as you can see, its a total pain!

Once we see signs of that PV moving out of Greenland then things will improve.

[SMU]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

long ensembles

an ever decreasing trend-

S

[recklessabandon]

You make a fair point.

We all have different reasons for viewing the models and those seeking cold weather will instinctively search through the output and sometimes gloss over the events already upon us--it`s just how it is.

We are in danger of losing objectivity in argument as a consequence though aren't we?

That all said, something has changed in the past few days, I am not sufficiently experience to really understand what, however, I am minded to think that those who identified mid-jan as a pattern changed period may be on to something. The only nagging doubt is that for the past 2 years prior to our 'extreme' spells.....the signs were there well in advance.....