Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Nothing wrong with the grid:

Excuse me.The grid you posted does not show the 30year mean for copenhagen,the one C posted does and i cannot believe that the 30year mean for mid Jan is -2 at 850 hpa.

[chionomaniac]

Excuse me.The grid you posted does not show the 30year mean for copenhagen,the one C posted does and i cannot believe that the 30year mean for mid Jan is -2 at 850 hpa.

I can, Berlin is the same. The upper air is not as important as one heads east.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I can, Berlin is the same. The upper air is not as important as one heads east.

wow thats really shocked me the 850hpa 30year Jan mean is not much different between london and copenhagen!!

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECH1-120.GIF?02-0

If someone was presenting archive charts with a build up to a big easterly you would swear the next chart from that would be the foundations of a big high ridging to scandi!

rain rain rain can i have the link to that NCEp chart please

S

Edited January 2, 2012 by Steve Murr

[SP1986]

850hPa temperatures are not subject to ground heating so a 30 year mean of -2C sounds pretty correct to me at this time of year.

It's actually a case of the further north you go, the colder the mean gets - but it can actually snow in those type of 850hPa temperatures over on the continent, largely due to drier air infiltrating below the level.

Surface temperature is completely different of course.

As for synoptics potential, If we land with an easterly or northeasterly, it might be relative frustrating, due to a lack of cold air locked up on the land mass, however I can't help thinking if there was deep seated northwesterly, we could well be very spoiled indeed as a nation in terms of snowfall.

The coldest air at the moment lies to the north-northwest - it will take a short time for that cold air to be transferred to the north-northeast if our synoptics set up in the "favourable"** position.

** = favourable for most people.

[Tim Bland]

^^^ As per GP's thoughts! TRUE cold zonality is the best set up most of the uk can get for snowfall

[Harsh Climate]

^^^ As per GP's thoughts! TRUE cold zonality is the best set up most of the uk can get for snowfall

No it isn't, unless your on high ground in the north it pretty much sucks.

Our best winter weather allways comes from the east or north east via a scandinavian block or a greeny high.

Edited January 2, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[lorenzo]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECH1-120.GIF?02-0

If someone was presenting archive charts with a build up to a big easterly you would swear the next chart from that would be the foundations of a big high ridging to scandi!

rain rain rain can i have the link to that NCEp chart please

S

.... it continues...

http://policlimate.c...scillation.html

[Stuie]

No it isn't, unless your on high ground in the north it pretty much sucks.

Our best winter weather allways comes from the east or north east via a scandinavian block or a greeny high.

Sorry I cannot post anything substantial but totally agree our cold wintry weather normally comes from the east. Slightly struggling to see it at present with any of the main models but you guys have the knowledge.

[Southender]

.... it continues...

http://policlimate.c...scillation.html

Sorry, what continues? Are we talking high pressure up towards Svalbard and further erosion of the PV?

[SMU]

The 216 chart looks naff over the UK but the domino effect of the Aleution high & PV getting broken up is beginning to perculate East...

Its like pulling hens teeth however.....

so T0

http://www.meteociel...ECH1-0.GIF?02-0

polar vortex Core all centred over the pole-

t240

http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?02-0

A lot less consistent & PV lobes seperated off all over the place---

S

Edited January 2, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I think the less said about ecm the better.

OK theres a 1040mb high sat to the south of the UK and flat atlantic jet,that aside its lovely.

[Summer Sun]

ECM is ending under high pressure and mild air once again.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Edited January 2, 2012 by Gavin D

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Gavin, you seem obsessed with how runs end. What about all the lovely weather stuff in the middle?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM is ending under high pressure and mild air once again.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1921.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2161.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2401.gif

looks good, mild for your area, but not for south, example of south being colder than north, need that to dry up after all the rain

[TEITS]

I think the less said about ecm the better.

OK theres a 1040mb high sat to the south of the UK and flat atlantic jet,that aside its lovely.

Certainly disappointing and settled, dry weather is the last thing my region needs due to last years lack of rainfall.

Still on a positive note I did say many days ago we aren't all of a sudden going to see the models predict a mega cold spell. After reading the Stratosphere thread it appears the PV will gradually weaken but its going to be a slow process towards seeing a pattern change. Im personally not too worried at the moment. Even if the rest of Jan was mild and we had a decent 2 week cold spell in Feb I would be content.

At the moment im just following what CH, GP and of course the legendary Steve M have to say rather than following each model run hence my lack of posts in this thread.

[J10]

No it isn't, unless your on high ground in the north it pretty much sucks.

Our best winter weather allways comes from the east or north east via a scandinavian block or a greeny high.

It depends where you are in the UK, locally NW winds are the best for snow, but not necessarily for cold. I am sure that other parts of the UK have completely different outcomes.

I do find quite astonishing that different people can have such differing opinions on the ECM 12hz run.

Given GPs earlier post, ECM does appear to be trending in the right direction, the intensity of the Polar Vertex does appear to be weakening, even if it is not a cold run per se for the UK.

[Tim Bland]

QUOTE- "No it isn't, unless your on high ground in the north it pretty much sucks."

I said TRUE COLD zonality, the type that is very rare. Cool zonality is what we had mid Dec.

At least modelsare agreeing on the PV being displaced / weekend and remember the GFS op is recently almost always a mild outlier . I think it's going to be a slow burn and it may be Feb before low ground in the south sees a covering of snow lasting a few days.

[Jason M]

Looking through the charts and ensembles tonight the one constant is the Azores (soon to be UK) high. Its a big bad beast and it aint going anywhere based on current output.

I'm no expert on teleconnections and hopefully these will come to our rescue as per others comments. At present for me, its destination 'UK High', stopping en route at Tedium, Repetition, and for those amongst us who enjoy the pain, the option to progress back to zonailty once said UK high sinks.

This all just seems very much like last January to me. Even if the vortex splits a UK high followed by a gradual sinking is pretty common fayre in this part of the world in recent years. The models are all putting lots of energy into the northern jet and this is well backed up by the ensemble suites, which are gradually featuring less and less cold easterlies.

Still time for things to change and for me to be proved wrong (please!).

Jason

[Frosty.]

Although this is not a Northerly attack in the way that GP is suggesting after mid month, it's a shot across the bows but thereafter the gfs 12z run becomes the usual mild outlier but by the end of FI it is gearing up for a very wintry spell but the flabby mid section of the run is the type of mild we had at christmas. I still expect the op FI charts to become gradually colder in the coming weeks due to the lag effect of the strat warming.

Edited January 2, 2012 by Frosty039

[snowlover2009]

The teleconnections have been good for the past few months, I believe GP did post a composite for January with plenty of blocking in the favoured spots. The fact we are still seeing a few big cold outlier in all the ensembles is great, because it kind of supports those composites. We just need a bigger agreement on this. Although I am not expecting anything noteworthy in terms of Scandinavian highs and Greenland Highs till mid month. The atmosphere is currently changing and IMO,building up for proper cold for the remainder of winter. The signals for the deep cold in December 2010, started in in later October/early November with the atmosphere churning and pulling in all the blocks. Right now we having similairish developments and hopefully by the end of the month, it will be enough to give us a noteworthy spell of winter weather.

One thing I would like to know is what is with the massive outliers from the gfs OP. In the last day, it has calmed down a bit, but its getting going again. Very annoying, considering the amount of ensembles that have shown some lovely teases and the OP has shown the odd northerly blast, but even they haven't been as good as some of the others in the pack.

Edited January 2, 2012 by snowlover2009

[SMU]

I'm not having a dig but I'm amazed at your reading of the charts this winter Steve - it would be the last thing I would be expecting from said set-up. We have had a couple of winters where the cards have fallen right from far more promising scenarios than that.

we the fact the jet is diving south then roaring NE behind it has been a precursor to a Scandi high, & if you look at the 168 chart there is a ridge following what I posted- However the renewed jet @168 off the states is to flat & there is no undercut- just all over running-

either way the modelling of the aleution high will be shocking for the next 72-96 hours & until that settles things will be all over the place- but that high is a big global player-

its a pity we dont have NH archive charts instead of NW europe charts-

S

[snowlover2009]

we the fact the jet is diving south then roaring NE behind it has been a precursor to a Scandi high, & if you look at the 168 chart there is a ridge following what I posted- However the renewed jet @168 off the states is to flat & there is no undercut- just all over running-

either way the modelling of the aleution high will be shocking for the next 72-96 hours & until that settles things will be all over the place- but that high is a big global player-

its a pity we dont have NH archive charts instead of NW europe charts-

S

Actually you can get them on Meteociel somewhere I am sure you can go through archives from 1940s onwards or around that time and look at the NH patterns?

Just an example of NH chart from the past:

http://176.31.229.22...47-1-18-0-0.png

So if you want to post any example Steve of the current models and to some of the past archive charts, please do, as it might just show people that anything can happen and that people shouldn't take the collapsing high pressure in FI as gospel or the failing Scandi highs etc.

This needs a few tweeks

http://www.meteociel...H1-120.GIF?02-0

and its not far from this from 1947:

http://176.31.229.22...47-1-19-0-0.png

I am sure some of the ensembles or runs in the last couple of days have shown something even closer?

Edited January 2, 2012 by snowlover2009

[Glacier Point]

its a pity we dont have NH archive charts instead of NW europe charts-

S

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

[swilliam]

we the fact the jet is diving south then roaring NE behind it has been a precursor to a Scandi high, & if you look at the 168 chart there is a ridge following what I posted- However the renewed jet @168 off the states is to flat & there is no undercut- just all over running-

either way the modelling of the aleution high will be shocking for the next 72-96 hours & until that settles things will be all over the place- but that high is a big global player-

its a pity we dont have NH archive charts instead of NW europe charts-

S

You can get them here -http://www.meteociel...es/archives.php goes back to 1871 somewhat unbelievably - and you can scan 15 days at a time seeing how things evolved - fantastic resource - much better and easier to use than the wetterzentrale charts

Edited January 2, 2012 by swilliam