London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread - Part 3

[Bolton67]

Also Beeb backed up by GFS 06z which is showing this as an All Snow event for the SE & East Anglia. Could get 12 hours of snow out of this!

East Mids ?

[95 Degrees]

Probably been asked before but as things stand is being near the coast likely to be an issue in terms of snow or rain?

If Winds stay Easterly or thereabouts during the event then it will be snow for the coasts as well but my worry is if it goes sw w winds off the channel and we get rain instead.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Also Beeb backed up by GFS 06z which is showing this as an All Snow event for the SE & East Anglia. Could get 12 hours of snow out of this!

Yep, good agreement as this event is getting nearer.

Lovely seeing the colder air sweep back in on Sunday night after being nudged to the coast during the day. Precipitation looks heavy, could be some good snow from this, 3-4 inches at least hopefully!

[username home]

Still not convinced that Kingston upon Thames will see any snow....

Will only believe it when I see it...

[Radiating Dendrite]

Still not convinced that Kingston upon Thames will see any snow....

Will only believe it when I see it...

Check out Sunday mate.

[kold weather]

Also Beeb backed up by GFS 06z which is showing this as an All Snow event for the SE & East Anglia. Could get 12 hours of snow out of this!

06z GFS is superb, the ECM also is EXACTLY the same as the 06z GFS. Models have actually ever so slightly shifted eastwards in this set-up.

Still very long way to go yet, I'm waiting for this tio get into the high resolution part of the run before getting too excited. Still this is a rare set-up where we probably don't have to worry about whether it'll be snow or rain...at least at first.

[Nick F]

Yes 06z does not get the Saturated air into the SE Until late this evening at the earliest, Winds look like they are trending more to a Kent Streamer as well and not the Fabled Thames Snow Streamer.

So in summary any convection that pops up today now looks likely to hit Kent and Sussex as the Steering flow is too far North of East this evening, this becomes a little bit more favourable from 03z (3rd Friday) so would expect more in the way of the populous to see Heavyish Snow Showers through Friday.

My guess today would be Ashford and Canterbury doing quite well with upto 5cm by tomorrow morning if convection and a Kent Streamer can get going later this evening and overnight. Coastal Showers also possible along Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex but no great accumulations

Yes, today most snow likely to the north of our area from Norfolk north into NE England, a finger of moisture (as seen on the 850mb relative humidity chart below) has fed in from Denmark overnight towards the Wash/Lincs this morning - hence the snow streamer setting up through here. The air is still too dry across the SE to support snow showers:

However, moisture looks to sink further south into our area by the morning, so we should see some snow showers on Friday morning, tending to fade in the afternoon IMO:

06z GFS looks a little more progressive with the front coming in from the west Sat/Sun, similar to 00z ECM, clearing it through by Sun eve, though some GFS ppn type charts suggest snow throughout its passage for us:

However, we won't now how quickly this front moves or whether it even reaches us until even 24hrs out, so it could even be that the front doesn't even reach us and it stalls to our west!

[lewis028]

http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120202;time=06;ext=66;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=473faabafe1b3ae1d75397f61df12366; http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120202;time=06;ext=69;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=473faabafe1b3ae1d75397f61df12366; http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120202;time=06;ext=72;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=473faabafe1b3ae1d75397f61df12366; http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120202;time=06;ext=72;file=prectypeuktopo;sess=2350b1c985a2abafbdb9698cda2b129c; Nice charts for early sunday morning, Moderate to heavy snow for a good 12 hours!

edit: trying to sort these charts out, cant seem to

Edited February 2, 2012 by lewis028

[polarlow2]

I really really would urge caution to those predicting snow totals etc. This is still 72 hours away, so much can change and that front could still stall way out to our west. My bet is that the models will adjust its position a few more times yet. It looks great at the moment, but how many times have we been burnt...

[Coast]

Just look at what GFS has flooding in to us on Friday to Sunday:

That lots starts off somewhere in Greenland!

[lewis028]

http://cdn.nwstatic....ctypeuktopo.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....ctypeuktopo.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....ctypeuktopo.png

good spell of Moderate to heavy snow for 6 hours!

[Biggin]

Interesting at T48. Attacked from both sides

http://www.metoffice...e_pressure.html

Edited February 2, 2012 by Biggin

[k66yla]

Just looking at the BBC weather page, are those temps right for Sunday 7c? seems a bit warm

[Coast]

Even London is braced for snow as Britain shivers in temperatures 'colder than the South Pole' and the Army is put on standby

Department of Health issues weather alert as freeze poses significant health risks. Forecasters warn 'it's going to be pretty cold' with temperatures in some rural areas as low as -11C

Forecasters warned today that extreme cold will grip the country over the next few day with the possibility of snow even in London and the south. The Met Office upgraded its cold weather alert to level three at the beginning of the week, which means 'severe' conditions. Some areas have been told to expect temperatures of minus -11C and the Army has been put on standby should conditions get even worse.

Around four inches of snow and ice are forecast for parts of the country due to a high-pressure system over Scandinavia which is pushing raw eastern winds towards the UK. Record low temperatures in Eastern Europe have caused dozens of fatalities with 43 dead in Ukraine alone, where the mercury dropped to -33C. Paul Mott, forecaster with MeteoGroup, said: 'The nights will be really cold throughout the week and there will be the occasional snow showers over the eastern counties of England, eastern Scotland and even London.'

Mr Mott said the mercury could plummet to as low as -10C in rural parts of central England on Thursday night, with average day time readings only reaching 3C-4C. BBC Radio 5 Live said temperatures could fall as low as -11C. MeteoGroup forecaster Clare Allen said: 'We've got an easterly wind bringing snow showers off the North Sea. Most areas of the UK will see daytime maximum temperatures of 2C and 3C. London will be a maximum of 4C, so it's going to be pretty cold.'

Devon and Cornwall have already felt the brunt of the bad weather. Police in the two counties have warned motorists not to travel unless it is essential after snowfalls on Exmoor and Dartmoor. The icy blast meant staff at Luton Airport had to defrost a fleet of easyJet planes yesterday before passengers could get on, as temperatures dipped below freezing at the airport in Bedfordshire. It warned that low temperatures can be especially dangerous for the young and the elderly or those with chronic disease.Health chiefs have also started warning that as a result of the freezing conditions, more than 1,500 people a week could be killed by the weather.

The Department of Health's Chief Medical Officer said that around 1,560 people, many elderly, would die due to cold weather each week between now and March in normal winter weather. That figure will rise 'substantially', however, due to extreme cold like that we are currently experiencing.

During last year's big freeze, the death rate in England and Wales shot up by 21 per cent from 9,220 a week to 11,193. Dame Sally Davies said: 'Mortality rises by 19 per cent in winter months in England, amounting to 27,000 excess deaths or 1,560 more people per week compared with the rest of the year. And very severe weather can substantially add to this death toll.'The majority of UK deaths are among older people, especially women, and those with underlying health problems - but they are not people who would have died anyhow at that time.' The military have been put on alert should conditions deteriorate to a Met Office level 4, which means a 'major cold weather incident'.

When freezing conditions struck in 2010, members of the armed forces were called in to help clear snow from the roads and assist residents in particularly hard-hit areas. Mobilised soldiers will also help clear special locations such as doctors’ surgeries, care homes and hospitals. The cold spell breaks what has so far been one of the warmest winters on record. Forecasters said it was becoming increasingly likely that the freezing temperatures would stick around and even last through the whole of February. There are fears that the sudden onset could bring travel chaos and catch many drivers off guard. AA spokesman Luke Bodett said: ‘We have had a very mild winter so far and motorists need to get into their winter mindset from today. It is going to be important not to charge around in the way they may have been used to and be prepared for the unexpected.’

The Met Office has briefed government departments and local councils about the cold period so that extreme weather plans can be put on standby. Meanwhile, well-prepared residents in a Cornish village have bought their own snowplough and gritter after they were cut off for a week in a blizzard during previous winters. The Badgall and Laneast Action Group (Blag), have raised £2,650 to buy the plough and mechanical salt spreader. Two farmers in the area have been designated to operate them during heavy snowfall. Blag said residents 'voted with their pockets' after being cut off during the last two winters.

http://www.dailymail...South-Pole.html

[kold weather]

Right going to close this thread now!

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72427-london-and-the-south-east-regional-discussion-thread-part-4/