The Seasonal Forecast Thread

[Methuselah]

A great deal of pettiness appears to be creeping into this thread...

Edited January 3, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[UV-RAY]

Quick turnaround, sort of out of nowhere....or would have been in past decades, now we have more to our armoury to see potential changes down the line

BFTP

BA posted on the model thread that lower heights are now showing up in FI, fantastic news as I really couldn't see any cold spell devolving otherwise. Lets hope those record breaking cold temps come true Fred, I'm still more inlined to go for Rogers call for cold to arrive in Feb and for us to be just on the wrong side of the block prior to this. Edited January 2, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

BA posted on the model thread that lower heights are now showing up in FI, fantastic news as I really couldn't see any cold spell devolving otherwise. Lets hope those record breaking cold temps come true Fred, I'm still more inlined to go for Rogers call for cold to arrive in Feb and for us to be just on the wrong side of the block prior to this.

Indeed, he's been on the mark so far.....RJS cold spell is a humdinger too. challenging temps...we need snowfields and slack or no wind with arctic air.

BFTP

Edited January 2, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[johnholmes]

, I just find it rather odd that more people aren't interested in a method that gave such a promising result both this winter and last. I assume it is the vague association with "astrology" which I can't really help because if external signals are important then they are 100% bound to originate outside the earth's atmosphere, there is nothing out there except outer space unless there's a control room behind a glass screen with stars painted on it. And some days I think maybe that's the actual answer, and that they can change any pattern at a whim just for their own amusement. Don't you?

I suspect there may be some truth in your comment Roger. What folk cannot see they cannot or will not try to understand.

After much effort from your original posts several years ago I have to admit I had to give up as I could not get my head around what you were doing.

What I must say though is that your forecasts are as correct as some of the major centres and now and then more accurate. I believe you have something going and please do keep going. Who knows, now that UK Met have actually got round to admitting that the Stratosphere does have a part to play your ideas may eventually be taken on board!

Stop knocking LRF work folk and especially wait until the last day of winter before making comments about how wrong they are for this winter.

[Weather-history]

What folk cannot see they cannot or will not try to understand.

After much effort from your original posts several years ago I have to admit I had to give up as I could not get my head around what you were doing.

It could be more to the fact is that they just don't buy the theory and I will be honest I don't really buy it, simply because there is a very large body which provides virtually all our energy and swamps out virtually the rest of the solar system and its called the Sun. Talk about Mercury, Spica and other worldly bodies I just can't see it myself not when there is a massive body like the Sun nearby. It's 99.8% of the total mass of the solar system!

Edited January 2, 2013 by Weather-history

[Roger J Smith]

Well the point is that other objects in the solar system are modulating the solar wind, of course that is the only source of warmth for the earth, but we don't get a constant invariable feed otherwise there would be perhaps much less variation in our climate, just whatever the Moon's tidal effects alone might be, and as you'll see when I start up this thread on data, that alone is not as large as some of the other factors I have identified. But I have never said, thought, implied or even imagined that any object other than the Sun is a source of warmth in our solar system -- the key to the whole business is to model variations in the Sun's energy output as received in our atmosphere and this may not be the same as just the variations as emitted from the Sun.

Thanks for the various comments, I am still confident that if this method begins to converge on a fully reliable forecasting system (which is not yet the case) people will respond to that, perhaps not everyone in the same way but quite honestly I think this approach is going to lead to a solution, although whether that's in my lifetime or in another person's lifetime building on these results, remains to be seen. This is a very complicated subject and anyone who imagines they will solve it with one insight is probably on the wrong path. I suspect the solution is at the end of a very long and winding road that requires all sorts of detailed work that is based on multiple data sets at many different locations. But at the same time, the general notion that it would take "the sort of supercomputers they have at big agencies" while quite understandable is probably not entirely true, the complexity is more in the paradigm than the computations. I am continually amazed by how quickly my rather shabby little computer can crunch 240 years of daily data, once I have the right formulas worked out, I can see a graph of what I am studying in less than one second, and the whole operation takes less than an hour to set up.

As a preview of what this thread on results might show, I can say that some of the lunar signals are small in scale but they have been operating over the period with interesting slow variations in time -- that will be worth a detailed look -- but some of the solar system variables are much larger in scale and seem quite robust. I think of a signal as robust if it looks similar in both halves of data, or three thirds of data, etc, and also if it shows either similarity or a rational variability in segments of data. By rational variability, I am talking about changes in a signal that can be related to changes in the orbital variables of the postulated cause of the signal. But there again, the energy is all coming from the Sun, the variations are being produced by interference in that energy created by other objects. I think these points will be better understood from the actual data and so I will get started on that thread very soon, there's no rush as I think all of the information at once would be too overwhelming anyway even for those who wanted to follow the theory. To be realistic I would expect this might take the better part of the year 2013. I should be able to start the thread in a day or two, as I have a few graphs already produced. It will be necessary to produce graphs on the order of one or two per week so that's not too daunting at my end. No guarantee that readers will totally understand the theory or accept the implications, but without a discussion I don't know if any of that is even remotely possible, perhaps it will be. We shall find out in due course. (note, this thread will be posted in the science thread, not anywhere in this forum on general weather chat).

Edited January 3, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[syed2878]

@rjs. Hey roger i must say your method sounds interesting and looking forward to your thread. I hope your wrk will bare fruit like jh said mor an mor starting to come on bord with the strat including u.k met, so u never know. Keep up the gd wrk man.

[Roger J Smith]

As promised, I have started that thread in the Science forum (down the page if you're looking in the index) and so we can move all of this discussion out of the more general LRF thread and into its own dedicated area, those who are interested can engage to their heart's content, those who want to avoid the subject can do that too). It will be about this weekend before I get into posting graphs of actual research data, and once started into that, there may be quite an avalanche to follow, but the first post already up is on the general concept of what the thread will be about, how the graphs will be comparable (the basic point is, I want the graphs to be comparable so you can get a visual sense of the signals derived and how these signals compare with each other).

Hope you enjoy this, it might get very ugly if February brings us a heat wave and not a cold spell, but as a raw discussion this could be very interesting. Give it some time to develop, the subject is fairly complicated (I would not say difficult, actually the concepts are probably easier to follow than teleconnections). It is quite a detail-oriented theory, sort of like electron shells and atomic number, all the meat is in the detail rather than just one big theoretical concept. Because there is a lot of detail, it can get confusing, boring perhaps. Maybe some readers will find things to suggest and help to improve the theory's actual performance. I can always hope so, anyway.

[Stationary Front]

I find myself in general agreement with Boar W above but my current CET estimates are

DEC 4.8

JAN 5.0

FEB 2.0

MAR 6.5

and Feb has the greatest chance of going sub-1 C or even sub-zero from my analogue set. As I mentioned, the confidence on a transition from mild Jan to cold Feb is not high due to sparse analogues but this is what the research indicates.

In more detail, Dec likely to be variable with mildest days near first week and Christmas holiday, coldest around new moon 12th and following week. There could be a windstorm in that period as mild pattern yields to cold in stages. Sticking to earlier mild with rain or drizzle and fog Christmas forecast, stormy 27th-28th.

Jan forecast to be highly variable, some very mild days possible, much colder trend late in month, could resemble 1947 in general outline (adjusted somewhat later to conform to second-order timing factors). Windstorm risks around 10th-12th and complex winter storm patterns likely late in month.

Feb predicted to be very cold with good chance of widespread snow and some chance of epic winter "singularity" -- obviously nothing will likely match 1947 but this is in the analogue set. This is when I think UK and possibly Ireland could see snowfall disruptions (best chance, around 6th to 12th).

March likely to start cold and see rapid thaw, melting of any remaining snow, pattern change to very mild late in month.I find myself in general agreement with Boar W above but my current CET estimates are

DEC 4.8

JAN 5.0

FEB 2.0

MAR 6.5

and Feb has the greatest chance of going sub-1 C or even sub-zero from my analogue set. As I mentioned, the confidence on a transition from mild Jan to cold Feb is not high due to sparse analogues but this is what the research indicates.

In more detail, Dec likely to be variable with mildest days near first week and Christmas holiday, coldest around new moon 12th and following week. There could be a windstorm in that period as mild pattern yields to cold in stages. Sticking to earlier mild with rain or drizzle and fog Christmas forecast, stormy 27th-28th.

Jan forecast to be highly variable, some very mild days possible, much colder trend late in month, could resemble 1947 in general outline (adjusted somewhat later to conform to second-order timing factors). Windstorm risks around 10th-12th and complex winter storm patterns likely late in month.

Feb predicted to be very cold with good chance of widespread snow and some chance of epic winter "singularity" -- obviously nothing will likely match 1947 but this is in the analogue set. This is when I think UK and possibly Ireland could see snowfall disruptions (best chance, around 6th to 12th).

March likely to start cold and see rapid thaw, melting of any remaining snow, pattern change to very mild late in month.

Not bad so far Roger. I think Feb could be on track, 1986? maybe?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

BA posted on the model thread that lower heights are now showing up in FI, fantastic news as I really couldn't see any cold spell devolving otherwise. Lets hope those record breaking cold temps come true Fred, I'm still more inlined to go for Rogers call for cold to arrive in Feb and for us to be just on the wrong side of the block prior to this.

S I.....models are now doing as anticipated, very quick turnaround showing. Red Herring, maybe as we are still looking at 10-15 for real cold to hit our shores and an awful lot can go wrong/change in that time. But at least there is some interest visually. I see an atlantic assault between 16-22 hitting the cold block.....I'm hoping the cold block will hold as I antiicpate that it will strengthen last week of Jan bringing some very low temps. However, It may turn out that the thrust shunts the block out of our quadrant as it could be some shove and the block is in its infancy and we end up stormy and wet, and that's a little concern.

My concern? RJS doesn't see the earlier cold arriving...but he does see the serious cold coming after so chances IMO are stacking favourably with the strat warmings etc .

BFTP

Edited January 3, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[UV-RAY]

I'm inclined to agree Fred, I think we could see something similar to last month at first with the block to our East under attack quite early, with the Atlantic winning the first round. Thereafter hopefully the block reasserts itself and winter in all it's glory finally arrives

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Some models really buying into this now, but some are not. We ust tread carefully here as we have seen what happens in our Island. Anyway the synoptics are looking good and in the ballpark to my 21/12 update, timings [ according to some models] seems pretty satisfactory. This winter is starting to show signs of a real wind up and if this pattern develops, it won't go away for some considerable time

BFTP

[UV-RAY]

Still feel we will only see glancing blows until later in the month, these sort of patterns tend to take a while to fully take hold but once they do cold gets locked in for a number of weeks.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Remember, mid month for action onwards...pattern showing its hand 8-10...not sooner.

BFTP

[Peter H]

This prediction is totally up the left. though it hasn't updated for a while. Just how wrong can yopu be ?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Seasonal-outlook

What about 2013?

Is winter a whopper?

Issued: Wednesday 5th December 2012

Duty forecasters: Captain Bob

January

The New Year looks as if it'll be getting off to a chilly start, the indications still hold that there'll be polar air streaming southwards, the UK 'sandwiched' between high pressure to the west and lowers pressures to the north and east. A mix of wintry showers and sunny spells for all areas, the greatest concentration of showers likely to be through eastern areas, drier and sunnier closest to high pressure influenced western Britain.

The mainly dry and cold theme continues through the first week as high pressure drifts into the UK, showers dying away through most parts, it becomes less cold across northern Britain as a westerly establishes over the top of high pressure maintaining the settled conditions across southern England and Wales.

I think if I were Captain Bob I'd get that one down ASAP, considering the weather we have right now, as it's highly embarrassing.

Still, maybe he just got the position of the high pressure wrong !

[Peter H]

Some models really buying into this now, but some are not. We ust tread carefully here as we have seen what happens in our Island. Anyway the synoptics are looking good and in the ballpark to my 21/12 update, timings [ according to some models] seems pretty satisfactory. This winter is starting to show signs of a real wind up and if this pattern develops, it won't go away for some considerable time

BFTP

Yep, they seem to be flip flopping all over the place, at least that's what I'm reading into them

I can't see anything particularly cold either, and certainly not until the 20th:

http://www.ukweather.freeserve.co.uk/nwp.htm

[summer blizzard]

With winter well underway i'm actually curious as to what will transpire during spring and summer, i'm actually pretty bullish in that it looks like we will see neutral ENSO conditions. If it trends towards a warm-netral or weak El Nino state then combined with the +QBO we could see a pattern that may produce the goods.

March is probably most interesting right now because last March was brilliant and i would love a repeat though equally a cold March would be prefereable.

[Peter H]

March is probably most interesting right now because last March was brilliant

March '74 was also vey good. We had a reasonable summer that year too !

[VillagePlank]

Here's my forecast for 2012/2013 with the trend added back in,

or,

Nov: 8.26C (+2.11C)

Dec: 4.40C (+0.21C)

Jan: 2.74C (-0.66C)

Feb: 3.68C (-0.37C)

Mar: 7.40C (+1.87C)

Not so chilly as before, but colder than normal. Don't forget that the +/- are against the entire CET set, not the meteorological norm (1970-2000?)

It'll be interesting to see how that pans out (Nov looks to be a little on the high side)

Nov: Fore 8.26C, Actl 6.8C, Err: +1.46C

Dec: Fore 4.40C, Actl 4.8C, Err: -0.40C

I've reverted to my forecast that includes the trend readded to the numbers, without readding the long term trend, the numbers almost always come out too low.

Edited January 5, 2013 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[johnholmes]

Neither of those two months are that far out especially December so it will be interesting to see how close January and February turn out.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Posted 21/12/12

Prolonged and deep cold to takie hold as we deepen into January as the trough in Scandi becomes extension of HP from Greenland and a pronounced NE [generally] feed takes hold. The active pattern early Jan mayl be there but with deep cold knocking on doorstep it could get messy and much colder and snowier earlier than anticipated in LRF. 8-10 Jan......dates GP mentions, dates to watch another to watch 16-22 could be a large winter storm and a memorable part of winter.

Just to ramp as touch, this suggests Atlantic attack from SW up against northen block......I mention memorable as I'll suggest 'deluge' of snow.....some runs showing this scenario in deep FI...Keep watching. Also i posts I suggest date cold records to be possibly challenged last week of Jan........just alittle ramp

BFTP

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

Noting that a lot of cold air is leaking south into various parts of Asia this past week, about a week from now much colder air builds up over northwest Canada and a retrograde period begins around 20 Jan -- all of this suggests to me the best signal we could hope to see in the 2-3 week time frame (unless we get the whole Siberian moving west then) would be an elongated north-south ridge over east-central Atlantic that might even raise temperatures briefly above normal but then in larger retrograde to follow, the pattern would be ideal for stronger high pressure to build up over northern Europe. So for me it's a continued patient watch for severe cold to develop near end of month into February. Deepest portion of cold from my research is indicated to be 10-15 Feb.

[Weather-history]

March '74 was also vey good. We had a reasonable summer that year too !

Summer 1974 was poor.

[VillagePlank]

Neither of those two months are that far out especially December so it will be interesting to see how close January and February turn out.

At this stage, I am simply trying to forecast the shape, or more technically, trying to get highest possible score on the Pearson Correlation Coefficient

[johnholmes]

Just to ramp as touch, this suggests Atlantic attack from SW up against northen block......I mention memorable as I'll suggest 'deluge' of snow.....some runs showing this scenario in deep FI...Keep watching. Also i posts I suggest date cold records to be possibly challenged last week of Jan........just alittle ramp

BFTP

BFTP

Fred PLEASE would you write in complete sentences? I find it hard to follow your points as you currently write in this fashion. Are you repeating something you said 21/12/12 or quoting someone else?

thanks

John