April Cet

[BornFromTheVoid]

6.8C to the 8th

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 9.8C. Today's minimum is 7.3 while maxima look like being around close to 11C, so an increase to 7.0C tomorrow is likely.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

7.0C to the 10th (7.1)

7.0C to the 11th (6.9)

7.0C to the 12th (6.9)

6.9C to the 13th (5.7)

6.7C to the 14th (3.7)

6.4C to the 15th (2.5)

6.2C to the 16th (3.0)

[Lettucing Gutted]

6.8C to the 8th http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html Yesterday was 9.8C. Today's minimum is 7.3 while maxima look like being around close to 11C, so an increase to 7.0C tomorrow is likely. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at 7.0C to the 10th (7.1) 7.0C to the 11th (6.9) 7.0C to the 12th (6.9) 6.9C to the 13th (5.7) 6.7C to the 14th (3.7) 6.4C to the 15th (2.5) 6.2C to the 16th (3.0)

That's a beautiful cold run. If that 2.5C mean daily CET for the 15th April comes off that will be the latest point in Spring to see a sub 3C mean daily CET since 1966 which achieved a mean daily CET of only 2.7C on the 16th April 1966.

http://www.metoffice...cetdl1772on.dat

Edited April 10, 2012 by Craig Evans

[J10]

6.8C to the 8th

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 9.8C. Today's minimum is 7.3 while maxima look like being around close to 11C, so an increase to 7.0C tomorrow is likely.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

7.0C to the 10th (7.1)

7.0C to the 11th (6.9)

7.0C to the 12th (6.9)

6.9C to the 13th (5.7)

6.7C to the 14th (3.7)

6.4C to the 15th (2.5)

6.2C to the 16th (3.0)

My 9.0c is looking a tad high.

[damianslaw]

That's a beautiful cold run. If that 2.5C mean daily CET for the 15th April comes off that will be the latest point in Spring to see a sub 3C mean daily CET since 1966 which achieved a mean daily CET of only 2.7C on the 16th April 1966.

http://www.metoffice...cetdl1772on.dat

Yes Saturday is looking a cold day CET wise, maxima will struggle to hit 8 degrees and minima overnight could easily on a widespread level get down to -3 degrees which would deliver a CET value of less than 3 degrees, the 16th could equally rival saturday as heights move down across the country, the low uppers will cancel out any warmth from the sun, and overnight sunday is looking a very cold one for the time of year.

Edited April 10, 2012 by damianslaw

[Roger J Smith]

The month looks cold enough that I can cancel my request for a massive downgrade. In other news, checking the monthly CET values table, here's a complete list of the cases where April was colder than the preceding Dec, Jan, Feb or March. Cases where it was colder than November are too frequent to bother noting, about 30% of all years. The list is chronological so you can pick out any cases where April was colder than two or more of these winter months (and let's face it, March was more winter than spring through much of the period of record). I also list all sub-6.2 Aprils that failed to make the list otherwise. The list would be a lot longer had I gone with 6.5 as Maunder monthly means are generally multiples of 0.5 and there were quite a few 6.5 Aprils there which failed to beat out any winter months. There were four of these between 1678 and 1684. The numbers that I quote are the April CET followed by the amount by which that value was colder than stated months. Ties are noted also, the first example is Jan 1696. In any stated outcome, the December is in the previous year (for example, the first noted case, April 1688 was colder than Dec 1687 by 0.5).

1688 ... 5.5 ... 0.5 DEC

1695 ... 5.5 ... (none)

1696 ... 5.5 ... 0.0 JAN

1701 ... 4.7 ... (none)

1702 ... 5.8 ... 0.9 FEB, 0.0 MAR

1713 ... 5.5 ... 0.0 FEB

1739 ... 6.8 ... 0.1 FEB

1743 ... 5.4 ... 0.0 FEB

1750 ... 7.7 ... 0.5 MAR

1770 ... 5.4 ... (none)

1771 ... 5.5 ... (none)

1780 ... 6.3 ... 1.6 MAR

1782 ... 5.2 ... 0.2 DEC, 0.0 JAN

1784 ... 5.7 ... (none)

1790 ... 6.1 ... 0.0 DEC, 0.5 FEB, 0.3 MAR

1799 ... 5.4 ... (none)

1808 ... 5.8 ... (none)

1809 ... 5.2 ... 0.5 FEB, 0.8 MAR

1812 ... 5.5 ... (none)

1829 ... 6.7 ... 0.7 DEC

1837 ... 4.7 ... 0.0 FEB

1838 ... 6.1 ... (none)

1853 ... 7.6 ... 0.1 DEC

1860 ... 5.9 ... (none)

1879 ... 5.7 ... (none)

1903 ... 6.4 ... 0.7 FEB, 0.7 MAR

1908 ... 6.0 ... (none)

1917 ... 5.4 ... (none)

1922 ... 5.5 ... 1.0 DEC

1936 ... 6.3 ... 0.8 MAR

1938 ... 7.6 ... 1.5 MAR

1957 ... 8.9 ... 0.3 MAR

1978 ... 6.7 ... 0.2 MAR

1981 ... 7.8 ... 0.1 MAR

1986 ... 5.8 ... 0.5 DEC

1989 ... 6.6 ... 0.9 DEC, 0.9 MAR

1990 ... 8.0 ... 0.3 MAR

1991 ... 7.9 ... 0.0 MAR

1998 ... 7.7 ... 0.2 MAR

Crunching the numbers ... 26 out of 353 years so far (to 2011) have recorded one or more cases of an April that was colder or at least as cold as a previous winter month. Of those, 21 managed a colder outcome (not just a tie). Of those, six had two or more and of those four had two or more colder and not tied. One (1790) managed three out of four, one being a tie

Thirteen more cases were colder than 6.2 but failed to beat out any previous month in the set.

The extreme cases are:

DEC 1921 was 1.0 warmer than APR 1922

JAN 1696, 1782 were tied by APR ... APR has never been colder than JAN

FEB 1903 was 0.7 warmer than APR 1903

MAR 1780 was 1.6 warmer than APR 1780

The number of cases identified were:

DEC warmer 7 times, tied 2 times

JAN warmer 0 times, tied 2 times

FEB warmer 5 times, tied 3 times

MAR warmer 13 times, tied 2 times

Total 25 warmer months, 9 more tied.

The tendency has been for more frequent cases of March warmer since about 1900, and less frequent cases of other months. In fact it has been 109 years since February was warmer than April.

In 1983, JAN was only 0.1 colder than APR -- that's the closest approach since 1782.

(did this visually and there could be one or two omissions)

Edited April 11, 2012 by Roger J Smith

[Roger J Smith]

At the other end of the spectrum, April is usually colder than the previous October, but in 1893 it was 3.2 warmer.

[Weather-history]

Good Friday came in as provisionally 4.7C, lower than any daily CET mean recorded between 20th December 2011 and 12th January 2012 inclusive.

Easter 2012 was provisionally 0.5C colder than Christmas 2011

[summer blizzard]

7.1C to the 11th.

[AderynCoch]

The final value is still very much up in the air. Even with the cold outlook, it's far from certain that we'll be able to maintain a value around 7C or below until the end of the month. Average temperatures increase significantly throughout April, so that even below-average temperatures for the time of year wouldn't necessarily be as low as they have been recently (more likely leading to a gradual rise rather than a further drop).

At the same time a CET in 6-7C range isn't what I'd call exceptional, it's just that we've gone so long without a cold April that such a value would be notable.

Here's a list of all the Aprils since 1900 which have finished below 7C, with the first half/second half values followed in brackets by the overall monthly figure:

1903 – 6.7/6.1 (6.4)

1908 – 6.4/5.6 (6.0)

1917 – 2.6/8.2 (5.4)

1922 – 4.8/6.2 (5.5)

1924 – 4.5/9.3 (6.9)

1929 – 6.3/7.3 (6.8 )

1932 – 6.2/7.6 (6.9)

1936 – 5.6/7.0 (6.3)

1941 – 5.7/7.1 (6.4)

1951 – 6.1/7.5 (6.8 )

1956 – 7.2/6.6 (6.9)

1970 – 4.7/8.7 (6.7)

1978 – 5.4/7.6 (6.5)

1983 – 5.6/8.0 (6.8 )

1986 – 4.4/7.2 (5.8 )

1989 – 6.5/6.7 (6.6)

2012 should end up with a first half of about 6.5 or thereabouts.

[Scorcher]

Also a warm last week/10 days could lead to the CET skyrocketing. At the moment I'd say the final value looks like it will be slightly below average but at this time of year there is always the potential for a warm spell with the strong sunshine.

[Roger J Smith]

As Aderyn just discovered, when you type 8.) without the . you get .

[AderynCoch]

At least it does sort of resemble an eight when the bubble comes out.

Edited April 12, 2012 by AderynCoch

[Styx]

The month looks cold enough that I can cancel my request for a massive downgrade. In other news, checking the monthly CET values table, here's a complete list of the cases where April was colder than the preceding Dec, Jan, Feb or March. Cases where it was colder than November are too frequent to bother noting, about 30% of all years. The list is chronological so you can pick out any cases where April was colder than two or more of these winter months (and let's face it, March was more winter than spring through much of the period of record). I also list all sub-6.2 Aprils that failed to make the list otherwise. The list would be a lot longer had I gone with 6.5 as Maunder monthly means are generally multiples of 0.5 and there were quite a few 6.5 Aprils there which failed to beat out any winter months. There were four of these between 1678 and 1684. The numbers that I quote are the April CET followed by the amount by which that value was colder than stated months. Ties are noted also, the first example is Jan 1696. In any stated outcome, the December is in the previous year (for example, the first noted case, April 1688 was colder than Dec 1687 by 0.5).

1688 ... 5.5 ... 0.5 DEC

1695 ... 5.5 ... (none)

1696 ... 5.5 ... 0.0 JAN

1701 ... 4.7 ... (none)

1702 ... 5.8 ... 0.9 FEB, 0.0 MAR

1713 ... 5.5 ... 0.0 FEB

1739 ... 6.8 ... 0.1 FEB

1743 ... 5.4 ... 0.0 FEB

1750 ... 7.7 ... 0.5 MAR

1770 ... 5.4 ... (none)

1771 ... 5.5 ... (none)

1780 ... 6.3 ... 1.6 MAR

1782 ... 5.2 ... 0.2 DEC, 0.0 JAN

1784 ... 5.7 ... (none)

1790 ... 6.1 ... 0.0 DEC, 0.5 FEB, 0.3 MAR

1799 ... 5.4 ... (none)

1808 ... 5.8 ... (none)

1809 ... 5.2 ... 0.5 FEB, 0.8 MAR

1812 ... 5.5 ... (none)

1829 ... 6.7 ... 0.7 DEC

1837 ... 4.7 ... 0.0 FEB

1838 ... 6.1 ... (none)

1853 ... 7.6 ... 0.1 DEC

1860 ... 5.9 ... (none)

1879 ... 5.7 ... (none)

1903 ... 6.4 ... 0.7 FEB, 0.7 MAR

1908 ... 6.0 ... (none)

1917 ... 5.4 ... (none)

1922 ... 5.5 ... 1.0 DEC

1936 ... 6.3 ... 0.8 MAR

1938 ... 7.6 ... 1.5 MAR

1957 ... 8.9 ... 0.3 MAR

1978 ... 6.7 ... 0.2 MAR

1981 ... 7.8 ... 0.1 MAR

1986 ... 5.8 ... 0.5 DEC

1989 ... 6.6 ... 0.9 DEC, 0.9 MAR

1990 ... 8.0 ... 0.3 MAR

1991 ... 7.9 ... 0.0 MAR

1998 ... 7.7 ... 0.2 MAR

Crunching the numbers ... 26 out of 353 years so far (to 2011) have recorded one or more cases of an April that was colder or at least as cold as a previous winter month. Of those, 21 managed a colder outcome (not just a tie). Of those, six had two or more and of those four had two or more colder and not tied. One (1790) managed three out of four, one being a tie

Thirteen more cases were colder than 6.2 but failed to beat out any previous month in the set.

The extreme cases are:

DEC 1921 was 1.0 warmer than APR 1922

JAN 1696, 1782 were tied by APR ... APR has never been colder than JAN

FEB 1903 was 0.7 warmer than APR 1903

MAR 1780 was 1.6 warmer than APR 1780

The number of cases identified were:

DEC warmer 7 times, tied 2 times

JAN warmer 0 times, tied 2 times

FEB warmer 5 times, tied 3 times

MAR warmer 13 times, tied 2 times

Total 25 warmer months, 9 more tied.

The tendency has been for more frequent cases of March warmer since about 1900, and less frequent cases of other months. In fact it has been 109 years since February was warmer than April.

In 1983, JAN was only 0.1 colder than APR -- that's the closest approach since 1782.

(did this visually and there could be one or two omissions)

That is a big surprise! So many. I would have thought none.

Where I live, which gets compared to the English climate all the time due to its latitude and temperate climate, no second month of Spring has ever been colder than the preceeding winter months. I will also suggest that a very limited number of first Spring month have been colder than the previous 3 months.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

As Aderyn just discovered, when you type 8.) without the . you get .

At least it does sort of resemble an eight when the bubble comes out.

FYI you can uncheck the Enable emoticons box in the post options on the right hand side

[March Blizzard]

The final value is still very much up in the air. Even with the cold outlook, it's far from certain that we'll be able to maintain a value around 7C or below until the end of the month. Average temperatures increase significantly throughout April, so that even below-average temperatures for the time of year wouldn't necessarily be as low as they have been recently (more likely leading to a gradual rise rather than a further drop).

At the same time a CET in 6-7C range isn't what I'd call exceptional, it's just that we've gone so long without a cold April that such a value would be notable.

Here's a list of all the Aprils since 1900 which have finished below 7C, with the first half/second half values followed in brackets by the overall monthly figure:

1903 – 6.7/6.1 (6.4)

1908 – 6.4/5.6 (6.0)

1917 – 2.6/8.2 (5.4)

1922 – 4.8/6.2 (5.5)

1924 – 4.5/9.3 (6.9)

1929 – 6.3/7.3 (6.

1932 – 6.2/7.6 (6.9)

1936 – 5.6/7.0 (6.3)

1941 – 5.7/7.1 (6.4)

1951 – 6.1/7.5 (6.

1956 – 7.2/6.6 (6.9)

1970 – 4.7/8.7 (6.7)

1978 – 5.4/7.6 (6.5)

1983 – 5.6/8.0 (6.

1986 – 4.4/7.2 (5.

1989 – 6.5/6.7 (6.6)

2012 should end up with a first half of about 6.5 or thereabouts.

1917 sticks out on that list. A difference of 5.6C between the first and second half, surely one of the biggest rises in the CET series? Anyway, just goes to show how chilly April can be, especially in the first half.

[AderynCoch]

I think 1917 had the coldest first half on record. Even with that much warmer second half it remains the coldest April since 1837.

The coldest second half was probably in 1808 - a very chilly 4.5C.

Edited April 13, 2012 by AderynCoch

[AderynCoch]

FYI you can uncheck the Enable emoticons box in the post options on the right hand side

Thanks, never knew that! I think I prefer the novelty of the status quo though.

This April is definitely striving to be different from recent ones - three of the last five were 10C or higher, with 2010 being a respectable ..

Edited April 13, 2012 by AderynCoch

[DAVID SNOW]

Thanks, never knew that! I think I prefer the novelty of the status quo though.

This April is definitely striving to be different from recent ones - three of the last five were 10C or higher, with 2010 being a respectable ..

It was only a matter of time........................................................

[damianslaw]

Can't see the CET rising much in the coming days, indeed it looks like falling over the next 2-3 days and thereafter stalling as we see temps supressed by rain and low cloud and with uppers still cold, under any clearer breaks minima next week will still get down to quite low levels. I am also expecting a marked downward correction by month end - possibly 0.4 degrees something which needs to be taken into account.

However, there will still be 10 days to go this time next week and temps could recover quite quickly, but the signals are for the cool conditions to remain in situ, with the trough going nowhere fast - notherlies and easterlies can often dominate the mid April - mid May period....it is not a period of the year renowned for its mild southwesterlies/westerlies.

[summer blizzard]

I'm certainly struggling to see where a respectable rise is going to come from before the 20th.

[reef]

April 2008 saw a mean of 6.6C to the 20th but finished a rather average 7.9C due to a warmer final third. Thats not to say it will happen this year, but I wouldnt consider this April to be a definite cold month in the bag until a few days from the end!

As it stands its looking pretty cool/cold in the models for the time being though.

[summer blizzard]

7.1C to the 14th, although it does look if anything cooler.

[stewfox]

Another cold night in the CET zone with -4c being reached in places, don't know what actual lowest min was. Looks like the CET for April will now fall below 'average'.

Edited April 16, 2012 by stewfox

[Scorcher]

This month could potentially still end up average or slightly above- just signs that both ECM and GFS want to introduce warmer air from the continent in around 10 days time, although no real signs of things settling down. I think slightly below average is still most likely but I think many expected the CET to be lower than it is by this point.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Maxima and minima appear to have been considerably higher this weekend than was predicted, resulting in little change in the CET.

Currently 6.9C to the 15th

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 4.9C. Minimum for today is -0.7C (seems a bit high to me?) while maxima look like being around 10C, so a drop to 6.8C on tomorrows update is likely.

After that, the 06z GFS would have the CET at

6.8C to the 17th (7.4)

6.8C to the 18th (6.7)

6.9C to the 19th (7.9)

6.9C to the 20th (7.4)

6.8C to the 21st (4.9)

6.8C to the 22nd (6.8]

6.9C to the 23rd (7.8]

Below the 81-10 mean looks a given now, barring an end of month heatwave. 50/50 as to whether we manage 1C cooler or not I'd say.