April Cet

[Roger J Smith]

Here are some of the CET data that will be in the table of entries later on ...

1981-2010 mean 8.5 C

1971-2000 mean 8.1 C

1961-1990 mean 7.9 C

1659-2011 mean 7.93 C

Maunder mean 1659-1700 (or 1710) 7.2 C

18th century mean 1701-1800 was 7.9 C

19th century mean 1801-1900 was 7.2 C

20th century mean 1901-2000 was 8.1 C

Coldest 4.7 in 1701 and 1837

Third coldest 5.2 in 1782 and 1809

Coldest recently was 5.8 in 1986

Warmest 11.8 in 2011 and second warmest 11.2 in 2007

Third warmest was 10.6 in 1865

Factoids -- The CET stood at 0.1 after three days in 1799.

The mean for April 11-14 of 1879 was 2.0

Something a little more recent, April 10-11 of 1978 averaged 1.6

At the other extreme, the last three days of April 1775 averaged 18.0

About the closest to that in recent years would be 15.5 from 21st to 23rd last year.

Two days (15-16) in 1949 averaged 16.0.

Although it has been notably warmer in recent times (9.55 for the most recent ten Aprils), the late 18th century had a run of 10.0+ Aprils every even numbered year from 1792 to 1798 and more than half the years from 1788 to 1803 were above 8.9 C. There were three very cold Aprils in that period but the mean for 16 years was still 8.5 C -- the same as the most recent 30-year standard period. And from 1759 to 1763 they got used to an average of 9.3 C for five years. The average for seven years (1732-38) was 9.2 C. So this recent run is probably not quite as unprecedented as it seems.

Edited March 29, 2012 by Roger J Smith

[Lettucing Gutted]

12C

[Norrance]

9.0C for me please.

[Polar Maritime]

My guess is 7.9c

[virtualsphere]

9.1C for me please

[Weather-history]

8.3C

Last time April was colder than March was 1998

[J10]

I'll go for a mild one as well.

10.0c

[Polar Gael]

8.2ºC for me please.

[Stationary Front]

8.5 for me please

[Jack Wales]

Tricky one. I expected March to come in below average and look what happended. Anyway, strong signs for ridging over the mid atlantic so although I don't think the northerlies will be as potent as some of the models are suggesting, it looks like a cooler pattern is about to displace the current one. Although I'm tempted to go lower I'll opt for a slightly below average 8.1°C

[DR Hosking]

I guess its gonna be cool, potentially cooler than March! its 8.0c for me.

[Terminal Moraine]

I hope it's the coldest and wettest April in living memory so, to back up my hopes, I'll say 5.4c.

[Aaron]

I hope it's the coldest and wettest April in living memory so, to back up my hopes, I'll say 5.4c.

Wow!

[March Blizzard]

7.7C, please!

[damianslaw]

I'm going to go slightly below average thanks to what is looking increasingly like a cold first half. Prediction 8.1 degrees..

A generally unsettled month with winds often from the north with potentially cold cyclonic conditions around easter and some sharp frosts alot of the time. A warm up towards the end could help to bring the CET up appreciably but not enough to bring it above average. I've been way off the mark in recent months it has to be said - and it could all go Feb 2012 again.. but the signals don't support any major significant warm up.

[DAVID SNOW]

8.3,

Ta.

Revised guess... could i now have 7.8 Thanks.

Edited March 31, 2012 by DAVID SNOW

[The underwriter]

First few days definitely look to be on the cool side, but perhaps we'll get another warm-up after that. I'm going for 8.5.

[mark4]

9.0C for me please

[Robbie Garrett]

5.6C

[joggs]

Looking cold on the models for the start of April! And taking in to account blocking looks likely to be situated to the west alot of the 1st half of April, I'll plump for 6.3

Edited March 31, 2012 by joggs

[Bluebreezer54]

I don't think I have even been close in the few months I've been doing this, and I don't expect my April guess to do any better !!

8.8c for me please.

[BornFromTheVoid]

8.0C please.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

6.5C

[geoffw]

8.3

[mulzy]

7.4C - a tad below average