Arctic Ice Discussion (The Melt)

[BornFromTheVoid]

This is the most interesting

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As the ice has a bright surface, it reflects about 80% of the sunlight that hits it back into space.

When the sea ice melts, it exposes more of the dark ocean surface, resulting in 90% of the sunlight being absorbed, which warms the Arctic ocean.

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and how this may effect weather patterns

Not only that, but with the extra warmth entering the Arctic ocean and increasingly longer periods of time spent without ice cover, there's the chance of new ocean circulation patterns developing, at least during the summer.

As for heat loss exceeding any warming, with the ice melting the way it is, and minima becoming later on average, I really doubt that's the case. On top of that, we saw SSTs getting easily into the teens this year in large parts of the Arctic, so the sun is certainly warming things up.

Also, I think the fact that the Arctic is warming so much quicker than the rest of the globe shows that the snow/ice albedo feedback is far from negligible.

[trevw]

An overstated feedback.

The ice decline is mainly in late summer when sun at high latitudes is very low and strikes the water at such an oblique angle very little radiation will penetrate.

Furthermore, open water will lose a great deal of heat to the air above.

The heat loss almost certainly exceeds any supposed solar heating.

Understand the point on angle (although as the melt gets earlier and earlier this is changing to an extent), but as you say heat lost will be to the air/atmosphere in large part and so retained in the system?

[Iceberg]

EDIT: IJIS extent out now, with another large drop, this time of 87k, to take us to 4,594,375km2, just 339.844km2 off the 2007 minimum.

Other than breaking the record before September, I'm beginning to wonder if going below 4 million before then is looking likely?

Ijis is currently showing a revised figure for The 21 aug of 4481719

[stewfox]

An overstated feedback.

The ice decline is mainly in late summer when sun at high latitudes is very low and strikes the water at such an oblique angle very little radiation will penetrate.

Furthermore, open water will lose a great deal of heat to the air above.

The heat loss almost certainly exceeds any supposed solar heating.

Mainly late summer ?

There is generally a 2 million deficit from early June onwards cf 1980s figures . I have no idea how that larger open water circulates through the summer months that follow with 24 hours of day light hitting dark water rather then ice. Early October, Refreeze obvioulsy less volume ? Maybe more 'warm water' 1 foot below the surface. Feedback must be there ?.

3.5 million sq kms of less ice (15% concentration) then 1980s at present. Thats six times the surface area of France ! (674,000 kms)

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

[Waterspout]

I'm often confused about the reasons people have for awaiting an "Ice Free Arctic", and remember that phase is often cited as being "even for only 1 day in the height of Summer" by some scientists.

Remember, we only have accurate records since 1979, so we are only just about scraping in the minimum time period (circa 30 years) for making links to 'Climate Change' - Climate often being defined as pattern changes over a Minimum of 30 years.

So, I'm intigued, especially about feedbacks, and how they will impact Globally. If these feedbacks are very sensitive then I'd expect to see an increasing upwards temperature trend. Now, we can't say over the past 15 years, with dramatic Summer Melting (well August melting I guess) we have not seen an effect Globally, as tenperatures have been stable (globally)

Locally, then, is probably where the main focus will probably sit, which I believe mainly surrounds the increased likelyhood of High pressure forming in Aug/Sep. Although our severe Winters occured Nov-Feb, so I don't see the link (at the moment) with this and Summer Ice Melt.

[Gray-Wolf]

I think you confuse defining a climate system or a shift in climate with the type of change we are seeing across the Arctic Basin WaterSp?

What is expected (and measured) is a rapid climate shift (as we only see rarely in the paleo records) which can occur over a span a short as a decade? If the impacts of such a shift take out large sections of the northern hemisphere's ability to produce crops then it is important that we recognise the shift as early as possible?

We do not have the time to wait '30 yrs if such a delay costs us the ability to feed the planet.

The notion of 'Arctic Amplification' has been around for a number of decades but was not expected to impact us until well into the 2030'2/40's. We have been measuring it;s increasing impacts since 02' with the past 3 years showing the greatest changes to N. Hemisphere circulation. I fear that by this time next year we will no longer suffer this type of confusion over the changes now occurring.

Of course we do not have the methane research data for this year but with temps as they have been across Siberia/Alaska/Canada this summer we must also consider impacts from this medium to?

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'm often confused about the reasons people have for awaiting an "Ice Free Arctic", and remember that phase is often cited as being "even for only 1 day in the height of Summer" by some scientists.

Remember, we only have accurate records since 1979, so we are only just about scraping in the minimum time period (circa 30 years) for making links to 'Climate Change' - Climate often being defined as pattern changes over a Minimum of 30 years.

So, I'm intigued, especially about feedbacks, and how they will impact Globally. If these feedbacks are very sensitive then I'd expect to see an increasing upwards temperature trend. Now, we can't say over the past 15 years, with dramatic Summer Melting (well August melting I guess) we have not seen an effect Globally, as tenperatures have been stable (globally)

Locally, then, is probably where the main focus will probably sit, which I believe mainly surrounds the increased likelyhood of High pressure forming in Aug/Sep. Although our severe Winters occured Nov-Feb, so I don't see the link (at the moment) with this and Summer Ice Melt.

The paper showing the link between Arctic Amplification and mid-latitude weather has been posted up here many times, surely you've seen it? Just in case, here it is http://www.deas.harv...sVavrus2012.pdf It requires only basic knowledge of weather and sea-ice-air interactions in the Arctic, and is quite easy to understand.

As for our sea ice records. We have very good records of the sea ice edge going back to the 1800 hundreds, but obviously enough, not much info on the interior of the ice pack. I think mentioning that the Arctic may become ice free for even a day is just the first step, as was passing below the 6 million extent minimum mark in 1999, the the 5 million mark in 2007, then the 4 million mark in 2012 maybe? I see nothing to suggest I ice free day would not lead eventually to many more...

Finally, the reason some say global temperatures have been stable since 1998, is because they have been using the HadCRUT data which doesn't cover the Arctic. Yet, the Arctic is warming 2-3 times faster than anywhere else on the planet

Getting away from that, IJIS extent has shown one of the smaller drops this month, down 62k up to yesterday to take us to 4,532,969km2.

This means we're now just 278,438km2 off the 2007 record, and just 6,094km2 off beating the 2011 minimum

Edited August 22, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[su rui ke]

This story is gradually creeping on to some news websites - just had a look at Yahoo for example. Lots of ignorant 'don't they know ice melts in summer'-type comments, as usual.

[Interitus]

An overstated feedback.

The ice decline is mainly in late summer when sun at high latitudes is very low and strikes the water at such an oblique angle very little radiation will penetrate.

Furthermore, open water will lose a great deal of heat to the air above.

The heat loss almost certainly exceeds any supposed solar heating.

The loss of ice affects the arctic energy budget through sensible and latent heat fluxes as well as radiative but with regards to the latter, the energy gained as a result of decreased albedo is predicted to exceed increased loss through longwave radiation -

"The impact of Arctic sea ice on the Arctic energy budget and on the climate of the Northern mid-latitudes"

http://epic.awi.de/30245/1/fulltext.pdf

[Waterspout]

The paper showing the link between Arctic Amplification and mid-latitude weather has been posted up here many times, surely you've seen it? Just in case, here it is http://www.deas.harv...sVavrus2012.pdf It requires only basic knowledge of weather and sea-ice-air interactions in the Arctic, and is quite easy to understand.

As for our sea ice records. We have very good records of the sea ice edge going back to the 1800 hundreds, but obviously enough, not much info on the interior of the ice pack. I think mentioning that the Arctic may become ice free for even a day is just the first step, as was passing below the 6 million extent minimum mark in 1999, the the 5 million mark in 2007, then the 4 million mark in 2012 maybe? I see nothing to suggest I ice free day would not lead eventually to many more...

Finally, the reason some say global temperatures have been stable since 1998, is because they have been using the HadCRUT data which doesn't cover the Arctic. Yet, the Arctic is warming 2-3 times faster than anywhere else on the planet

Getting away from that, IJIS extent has shown one of the smaller drops this month, down 62k up to yesterday to take us to 4,532,969km2.

This means we're now just 278,438km2 off the 2007 record, and just 6,094km2 off beating the 2011 minimum

I hadn't read it properly, but have now, and as I stated earlier there isn't currently an obvious "Global" AA signal, but there are indication of "Local" ones, such as High Latitude blocking - which the paper shows quite clearly. It also mentions the Severe Winter of 2009/10 in its conclusions and quite rightly ponders is there a link, but falls short of directly attributing it to this. Whereas it is more firm in attributing AA to the Texas Heatwave of 2011.

As to records before 1979, so before the satellite monitoring era, yes there are many scattered records, many of which also show alot of melting occured in previous decades - my point being we can't properly put the last decade of melting into proper "Climate" context as we simply don't have the kind of data we've had since 1979. Because if we could put the past decade of Summer Ice Melt into this context we might see a pattern emerge over 100's of years. But we simply don't know that exactly, which is a great shame really. And remember there is still little known about the cause of the Arctic Warming which occured 1920-1940. Scientists simply don't know (or can't agree), but are certain that was not co2 driven.

As to Hadley not representing the Arctic correctly or not, well remember it is only a small area of the surface of the globe when weighting it into a 'Global' temperature anyway. And even if NOAA and GISS have been weighting it 'more correcty' into their numbers, there is still very little "New" Warming to show over the past decade even in their series 'Globally" that is. Whereas all Data Series show obvious Warming in the Arctic over the past 50 years.

[Waterspout]

The notion of 'Arctic Amplification' has been around for a number of decades but was not expected to impact us until well into the 2030'2/40's. We have been measuring it;s increasing impacts since 02' with the past 3 years showing the greatest changes to N. Hemisphere circulation. I fear that by this time next year we will no longer suffer this type of confusion over the changes now occurring.

Well, even the experts do not currently attribute the last 3 years of Southerly Tracking Jet all down to AA. I only saw a programme a few weeks ago and they were saying Who Knows, could just be a a bad run of coincidence! Remember Mike Lockwood in his research firmly pinned this down to reduced UV levels propogating down through Rossby Waves. And that's just one "for instance" alternative.

I suspect a combination of things, including AA, UV, and whatever else. Not just loss of Ice, which is contributing. And who knows when UV picks up over the next few years it might weight the coin back to less Blocking. So, I think when making big statements about sudden 'climate shifts' we have to look at all the mechanisms, not just Sea Ice, in coming to a conclusion about the future.

Edited August 22, 2012 by Waterspout

[4wd]

Yes that chimes with what I posted a few days ago that really the mechanism for recent reductions is not understood so trying to blame it on CO2 or whatever is currently in vogue does not stand scrutiny.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I hadn't read it properly, but have now, and as I stated earlier there isn't currently an obvious "Global" AA signal, but there are indication of "Local" ones, such as High Latitude blocking - which the paper shows quite clearly. It also mentions the Severe Winter of 2009/10 in its conclusions and quite rightly ponders is there a link, but falls short of directly attributing it to this. Whereas it is more firm in attributing AA to the Texas Heatwave of 2011.

As to records before 1979, so before the satellite monitoring era, yes there are many scattered records, many of which also show alot of melting occured in previous decades - my point being we can't properly put the last decade of melting into proper "Climate" context as we simply don't have the kind of data we've had since 1979. Because if we could put the past decade of Summer Ice Melt into this context we might see a pattern emerge over 100's of years. But we simply don't know that exactly, which is a great shame really. And remember there is still little known about the cause of the Arctic Warming which occured 1920-1940. Scientists simply don't know (or can't agree), but are certain that was not co2 driven.

As to Hadley not representing the Arctic correctly or not, well remember it is only a small area of the surface of the globe when weighting it into a 'Global' temperature anyway. And even if NOAA and GISS have been weighting it 'more correcty' into their numbers, there is still very little "New" Warming to show over the past decade even in their series 'Globally" that is. Whereas all Data Series show obvious Warming in the Arctic over the past 50 years.

I think there is no getting away from the fact that the reduced thickness gradient, caused by Arctic warming, enhanced by AA due to reduced albedo, much of which is likely a result of greenhouse gas warming, as outlined in this paper. Therefore, the changes in the Arctic are having an influence, but like AGW in general, attributing a single weather event to this change is a very difficult thing to do, but not something I see as necessary to prove it's influence.

There are numerous proxies used to determine past ice cover in the Arctic, with varying temporal and spatial resolutions, such as marine sediment cores, from both the coastal areas and the central Arctic, ice-rafted debris, driftwood, whale bones and many more. For the more recent times we have ship logs and reports and stories from local communities living around the sea ice. The vast majority of which indicated that we haven't seen sea ice conditions this bad since the Holocene optimum around 8,000 years ago.

Considering the 00s were the hottest decade on record, saying we haven't warmed makes little sense. If the 10s end up cooler than the 00s, then we might be on to something, but even then, we'd need at least another decade to assign any confidence to a cooling pattern.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Seems the sea ice area isn't done with us yet, and Cryosphere Today has just dropped 102,280km2, to take it to 2,741,990km2.

This is now 162,750km2 below the previous lowest on record, and 2,359,000km2 below average.

This also means that for the first time in 2012, and for only the 6th year on record, the global sea ice area anomaly is now below 2 million km2.

Meanwhile the sea ice in the Arctic Basin continues to set new record low areas and record anomalies.

Edited August 22, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just a small animation from around the Nares strait, from the 15th, 18th and 21st of this month.

Could there be some kind of partial reversal in the flow here, allowing warmer waters from the Baffin sea to flow into the Lincoln sea through Nares and eat into the sea ice there.

Had a quick look at the MODIS images from previous years but didn't find anything similar (though I may have easily missed something).

The Petermann 'berg is still drifting south, so the possible reversal in flow isn't completely across the strait at least.

[pottyprof]

We do not have the time to wait '30 yrs if such a delay costs us the ability to feed the planet.

So what do we use to measure climate? Are you now saying that 10 years is long enough? In that case the climate has stabilised and we haven't warmed over the last 10 years.

I totally agree with the bit I quoted as we need to start to move on this issue. When are you starting to organise a petition, a protest march, a charity single etc.? I've read many pages over the recent few months where you are so into saving the planet that you've failed to suggest what action we should take. We can all sit here hiding behind plastic but most of us need a leader so we know who to follow in taking action.

[Waterspout]

Considering the 00s were the hottest decade on record, saying we haven't warmed makes little sense.

It's a good job I didn't say that then, which I didn't ! I said there had been no "New" Global warming, but within that the Arctic has clearly Warmed more for the past 50 years. (and even the past 10 years)

Anyway, back to the Sea Ice...... (or lack of it....)

Edited August 22, 2012 by Waterspout

[BornFromTheVoid]

A loss on the IJIS extent today of 76,250km2, which takes us to 4,456,719km2 to the 22nd.

This means we've just beaten the 2011 minimum (by 70k) and are now just 202,188km2 off the 2007 minimum.

The prelim figure today shows a 120k drop, so likely another 60-80k when that's updated tomorrow.

[Gray-Wolf]

Yes BFTV we did have a 3 day 'bsckward flow in Nares, even Fram halted and looked to reverse (at least on the charts?) around the same time? Nares is deep so I'd imagine it was just a surface phenomina due to winds? It did appear to open up Lincoln for a while and seeing that this area used to have very thick ice would suggest the ice there was thin and vulnerable?

As for the rest of the season? Well we still have areas of the ocean with warm water so bottom melt can continue on into Sept? It will all depend on the thickness of the remaining ice? On my 'Jollies' atm so not had my normal access to things (borrowed laptop glimpses) had thought Healy on her way to more ice until I saw C.T. and noticed that the ice we saw her in has just about all gone now!! Some of that ice looked real thick and floes were large. If that rate of loss is occuring in other areas of the Basin (wasn't chukchi quite cool along with Bering this summer?) the we could have very low/thin ice levels a.t.m.?

I think it was Songster and I that had a little natter, post "the great Cyclone of 2012", about how fast ice disappears when it becomes fragmented into small floes due to the amount of surface area (in contact with the ocean) compared to it's mass? If the Bering side of the remaining ice took a battering like the ice Healy was in then we may have a few more surprises in store with F.Y. ice now all roughly the same thickness. Once the first of that ice starts to blink out then all of that ice could 'blink out' over a matter of days?

Anyhoo's, back to Portpatrick!

Edited August 23, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

Using the NSIDC extent data up to the 22nd

2012 Lowest 1 day= 4,290,620km2/ Lowest 5 day mean = 4,392,060km2

2011 Lowest 1 day= 4,302,070km2/ Lowest 5 day mean = 4,331,390km2

2007 Lowest 1 day= 4,160,700km2/ Lowest 5 day mean = 4,170,390km2

[The PIT]

Now this image doesn't install me with joy.

Now this image doesn't install me with joy.All well it won't upload so I'll post the link instead. http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png

Edited August 23, 2012 by The PIT

[songster]

Indeed. Subtitle for this melt season appears to be "The Year It Just Didn't Stop"

[keithlucky]

http://climaterealis... Edited August 23, 2012 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

Still more ice present than 1982.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Still more ice present than 1982.

Look a little more carefully, there is actually significantly less in 2012 than the other images, and more in 1982 than other decades.

Or is that somehow the point you're trying to make?

Here's another comparison for ya!