Stormy weather - Thursday 10th May

[A.J]

Just thought I'd post this as conditions may turn potentially good for possible strong/severe thunderstorms on thursday judging by various posts on the internet...If anyone in the Midlands region is interested for an afternoon/evening chase then please pm me...Any prospective chase though is dependent on forecast of course! ......I have the transport, would appreciate 50/50 on fuel, and anyone with mobile broadband would be very welcome!

[Staffordshire]

Would really love to join you aj, but I'm at collage! Have you go any more detail of it, ie, what time it's likely to happen and where is looking good? Much appriciated mate! And good luck on your chase if it goes ahead!

[Bishop Brennan]

AJ, noooooo!!! You've just jinxed our chances!

Bish

[Supacell]

How many more supercells are we going to see this year?

Judging from the charts I have seen this morning - possibly Thursday. Although I would think the best risk is further east of you and south of me. I'm guessing Lincs/Notts/Cambs and on into EA.

I wish I wasn't working I would have been up for a chase (even though I'm not from the Midlands )

[Coast]

You might want to get an early start........

Lightning possibilities not outstanding, but increase slightly as the morning wears on:

But nothing major from GFS currently

Lightning Wizard is down at the moment, the following NW Extra NMM charts are slightly more encouraging:

Head for North Wales early on and prepare to chase East through the middle of the country to try and find anything? I think it might be marginal and confined to hail and the odd spout or tornado if your lucky.

[Snowangel-MK]

I would have been up for it but I'm working all afternoon and evening tomorrow...... I planned that wrong didn't I

[legritter]

hi gang up there ,im erecting a storm shield tomorrow if it works it should keep all storms south of M4 CORRIDOR . BUT ON A SERIOUSE NOTE I HOPE YOU GET PLENTY ,forecasts very messy at the moment ,scope for plenty of rain . lets hope the sun comes out just at the right time for plenty of convection .thanks to those who posted shots of fun clouds ,and young twisters etc the other day . i took some down here of very interesting angry clouds but i think somerset was the breading ground for these cells and they matured further north ,still learning computer and when iv mastered it and camera i hope to post ,anyhow best of luck midlanders ,cheers

[Nick F]

Not sure about the Midlands for a chase (maybe early on) ... but atm GFS suggests Lincolnshire up into The Vale of York may have potential for storms early Thursday afternoon, any storms forming in this area would benefit from strong upper-level divergence in the left exit of a SW'erly strong jet:

Vertical and speed shear should be sufficiently strong for storms to organise into line segments or even a supercell, surface airmass will be fairly juicy (DPs circa 14C) and some drying of mid-levels maybe favourable for development of tornadoes given backing of surface winds ahead of low moving in across the west.

Limiting factors could be cloud cover spilling down from the north and warm/moist upper levels inhibiting convective cloud height.

[robt]

If the Vale of York is on for it, I may sit here and see what builds..

[Nick F]

Lightning Wizard charts drawn from the 00z GFS run show significant tornado parameter area and supercell comp parameter area over Yorks and Lincs at 15z tomorrow - where we have highest CAPE on that run:

06z GFS still looking favourable for what I mentioned above across N Midlands, Yorks and Lincs 09z - 15z tomorrow.

[Coast]

Lightning Wizard charts drawn from the 00z GFS run show significant tornado parameter area and supercell comp parameter area over Yorks and Lincs at 15z tomorrow - where we have highest CAPE on that run:

Ah good, ESTOFEX/Lightning Wizard back up and running and here's where they think things will happen overnight:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 09 May 2012 06:00 to Thu 10 May 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Tue 08 May 2012 23:26

Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

A gradual shift of the main streamline pattern is forecast with pattern recognition showing augmented probabilities for severe thunderstorm development over parts of W/C Europe during the upcoming days.

On Wednesday, a longwave trough to the N and W of Europe reveals a positive tilt throughout the forecast with the build-up of a sharp and deep baroclinic zone, which runs from the Azores towards the Bay of Biscay with a rapid NE-ward expansion during the forecast. In fact, an unusual extensive low-level depression covers all of the North Atlantic north of 30° N with connection to a plume of subtropical air with TPW exceeding 30 mm regarding latest MIMIC analyis. Therefore, a well defined subtropical air mass spreads to the NE and starts to affect parts of W/C-Europe during the forecast period.

Attendant deep WAA assists in geopotential increase over most of SW/S-C Europe, which also results in a cut-off process over SE-Europe.

DISCUSSION

... S-UK ...

A warm front gradually lifts to the north during the daytime hours with a warm and moist postfrontal air mass affecting mainly S-UK with low-end instability build-up forecast. A veering profile (especially along and just behind the northward lifting front) and placement beneath the exit region of an approaching 25-30 m/s mid-level jet may assist in a few organized thunderstorms mainly between the late morning and late afternoon hours. An isolated tornado event is possible next to marginal hail and strong wind gusts. No level 1 was yet issued due to the marginal CAPE environment and sporadic initiation forecast in local model data.

During the night hours, the stage is set for a heavy rainfall event, at least partially accompanied by DMC. With numerous vorticity maxima crossing UK from the SW, the influx of a very moist air mass and 850 hPa winds increasing to more than 20 m/s, training/back-building storms are possible. This risk may be enhanced along any mesoscale convergence zone and/or outflow boundary, left by daytime conveciton. Heavy to locally excessive rainfall is forecast with adequate MUCAPE for a few embedded thunderstorms. The flash flood risk is also enhanced by history of past weeks heavy rainfall events.

[Harry]

Yet another thoroughly grim and damp day here in the SE - worth noting however that it's feeling increasingly muggy outside

Modestly optimistic of there being some sferics in this mass which will be arriving over night - would suggest SW'ern/southern coastal areas being at highest risk (but that's largely a hunch)

[Nick F]

Yet another thoroughly grim and damp day here in the SE - worth noting however that it's feeling increasingly muggy outside

Modestly optimistic of there being some sferics in this mass which will be arriving over night - would suggest SW'ern/southern coastal areas being at highest risk (but that's largely a hunch)

Yes, the warm sector moving in from the SW across southern England looks to have a few shortwaves moving through it which could allow a few isolated embedded storms to develop overnight, excessive rainfall could be a real problem given high moisture content of the airmass.

[Coast]

excessive rainfall could be a real problem given high moisture content of the airmass.

Owww looks damp out there tonight!

A bit of a tornado possibility too:

[A.J]

Why has my thread title been changed???

[Harry]

Why has my thread title been changed???

I'd hazard a guess it's because of the "Midlands" element

[Coast]

Why has my thread title been changed???

It's a slightly broader thread now covering the total UK situation (and possible adverse weather) that includes any possible storm chasing through the middle of the country overnight into tomorrow! We ran some specific day/event threads last year outside of the main convective discussions as they were contributed to quite highly (and can be pulled from the archives easily in years to come!)

[A.J]

Ok Robin, understood matey.....I'll be keeping a close eye on the outputs and on radar tomorrow morning...I fear Yorks & lincs might be a tad too far for me.....(Melton Mowbray to Newark would probably been the farthest east I could go)

post frontal cloud could be an issue tomorrow, as it was on Monday, however as Monday proved, given some decent cloud breaks then all kinds of 'meteorological mayhem' can ensue!

Edited May 9, 2012 by ajpoolshark

[Coast]

Ok Robin, understood matey.....

No probs, I'm just in contact with my local dealer to see if I can get a demo motor for tomorrow morning 'drive' into work:

[Harry]

Humidity really cranking up now!! Windows open in the office now as it's getting quite uncomfortable!!!

[Coast]

and its going to be a sticky old night too:

[robt]

Its a bit muggy and rainy up here at the moment too.

[Eskimo]

94% humidity here, the highest humidity level in a long long time!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Wonder if the humidity is why I have a headache.

[Eskimo]

Wonder if the humidity is why I have a headache.

I feel tired for an unexplained reason...