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Can The Up Upcoming Warm Spell Last Into June And Beyond?


Alex

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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry summers with big thunderstorms.
  • Location: Chelmsford

There are signs with a weak jet and pressure setting up high to our north/north east that this upcoming settled spell could last a while, obviously there will be times where more changeable weather comes in especially to western areas, but my question to all is can it last a good 2-3 weeks, perhaps more?

What I have found is that when the jet is pushed well to the north and we get a ridge appearing to our north/NE we often can get 6-8 weeks of anticyclonic type weather, some examples are July 76, April 2011, July 95 etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

I guess this shows how 'poor' May has been. The upcoming warm spell is just your average May warm spell that should occur every year. Actually a warm spell in May usually includes temperatures in the mid and sometimes high 20's, even up here.

Edited by Aaron
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Posted
  • Location: Valencia, Spain or Angmering, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: 22-38C in summer with storms, cold in winter with some snow/or 15-25C
  • Location: Valencia, Spain or Angmering, West Sussex

It will last, but it'll fade in and fade out as usual, nice next week and early week after next then will probably diminish, with some short-lived slack or frontal spells but will return from time to time, June will be much warmer than May I think, nothing amazing though, but decent/good.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London
  • Weather Preferences: Mediterranean climates (Valencia is perfect)
  • Location: Near Heathrow, London

Yes, these types of spells happen ever year.. it's only because of the awful weather we've had recently that it feels so good.. I can't remember a Spring with as few 20C as this year..

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

There are signs with a weak jet and pressure setting up high to our north/north east that this upcoming settled spell could last a while, obviously there will be times where more changeable weather comes in especially to western areas, but my question to all is can it last a good 2-3 weeks, perhaps more?

What I have found is that when the jet is pushed well to the north and we get a ridge appearing to our north/NE we often can get 6-8 weeks of anticyclonic type weather, some examples are July 76, April 2011, July 95 etc.

It's certainly possible for this sort of pattern to be followed by 6-8 weeks of generally anticyclonic weather, but I don't think there is a strong relationship- it all depends on how the synoptics subsequently pan out. Btw July 1995 was not a particularly anticyclonic month despite its hot dry sunny tendency (the emphasis was rather on frequent southerly winds, troughing mid-Atlantic, and if anything mean sea-level pressure was marginally below the long-term average) although August 1995 was certainly strongly anticyclonic.

I think there are strong signs that the weather will continue generally dry and settled for a while, but I am less confident about a continuation of warm sunshine after Thursday, with a stiff easterly breeze setting in and airmasses being picked up from north of due east. For north-western districts it may well continue warm, dry and sunny for upwards of a week, but in eastern England it might end up rather grey with suppressed daytime temperatures come next weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)
  • Location: Tonyrefail (175m asl)

I believe that synoptically, summer starts to show it's hand towards the end of May and that it's possible the forthcoming weather pattern could become 'locked in' however I do feel that 6-8 weeks may be somewhat optimisitic. Interestingly I don't see any standout teleconnections which could drive this summer so as the wavelenghths expand it could be that our summer is front and back loaded i.e. pleasant June, poor July / August and possibly a warm September.

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Posted
  • Location: Dronfield, South Yorkshire (S18)
  • Weather Preferences: Storms
  • Location: Dronfield, South Yorkshire (S18)

It's certainly possible for this sort of pattern to be followed by 6-8 weeks of generally anticyclonic weather, but I don't think there is a strong relationship- it all depends on how the synoptics subsequently pan out. Btw July 1995 was not a particularly anticyclonic month despite its hot dry sunny tendency (the emphasis was rather on frequent southerly winds, troughing mid-Atlantic, and if anything mean sea-level pressure was marginally below the long-term average) although August 1995 was certainly strongly anticyclonic.

I think there are strong signs that the weather will continue generally dry and settled for a while, but I am less confident about a continuation of warm sunshine after Thursday, with a stiff easterly breeze setting in and airmasses being picked up from north of due east. For north-western districts it may well continue warm, dry and sunny for upwards of a week, but in eastern England it might end up rather grey with suppressed daytime temperatures come next weekend.

Yes the signals after this week are quite weak at the moment. FI on a few models wants to bring the Greeny high back into play but we get put into a no-mans land ourselves. Best to wait and see, and enjoy this week of course. Not sure how nice it'll be up here, but it should be dry and warmer than the last few days blum.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

The question is will the warmth remain, I think HP to our northern quadrant will last....but will the warmth

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

The question is will the warmth remain, I think HP to our northern quadrant will last....but will the warmth

BFTP

Depends where the HP moves, we could draw some very warm air up from the south should it position itself correctly.

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Posted
  • Location: Paris suburbs
  • Location: Paris suburbs

I guess this shows how 'poor' May has been. The upcoming warm spell is just your average May warm spell that should occur every year. Actually a warm spell in May usually includes temperatures in the mid and sometimes high 20's, even up here.

I wouldn't say so - the average maximum in May for Leeds is 15c, so the 24c forecast tomorrow is 9c above average, which is quite substantial. Conversely it could be said to be as exceptional as a 6c maximum - I think most would agree this is also quite significant. Perhaps saying that mid to high 20's 'should' occur every year shows how warm Mays have been recently (although there have been no exceptionally warm April 2011-type Mays for a while).

Edited by Harve
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Depends where the HP moves, we could draw some very warm air up from the south should it position itself correctly.

Not likely IMO, gradual cool down weekend onwards returning chilly

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Not likely IMO, gradual cool down weekend onwards returning chilly

BFTP

Not likely I know, more chance of me been the next Liverpool manager :lol:

Probably return to average after that.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

More often than not, we don't see high pressure rooting itself over the UK (otherwise we would see many more warm months).

I am pretty skeptical as to how long this will last so i suspect a breakdown in early June with a reset in late June.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Lasted much longer than expected however it's looking now that it won't make it into June with the cool down being brought forward again. Yesterday it looked like most of the country wouldn't cool down until Friday now it seems from Tuesday onwards. Hopefully they'll be a few storms though to give a good send off.

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