Hurricane Ernesto

[summer blizzard]

Note that there is an upper level weakness over Texas so the slower and stronger this storm is, the further north it will turn.

INIT 06/1500Z 15.8N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

12H 07/0000Z 16.2N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

24H 07/1200Z 16.8N 84.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

36H 08/0000Z 17.5N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

48H 08/1200Z 18.2N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH

72H 09/1200Z 19.0N 92.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

96H 10/1200Z 19.0N 95.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

120H 11/1200Z 19.0N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

[summer blizzard]

000

URNT12 KNHC 061450

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012

A. 06/14:36:30Z

B. 15 deg 51 min N

080 deg 26 min W

C. 850 mb 1402 m

D. 67 kt

E. 293 deg 4 nm

F. 029 deg 51 kt

G. 286 deg 5 nm

H. 996 mb

I. 17 C / 1556 m

J. 22 C / 1510 m

K. 16 C / NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. E09/10/5

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 14

MAX FL WIND 77 KT NW QUAD 13:19:00Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 66 KT E QUAD 14:47:30Z

Closed eyewall and 67KT - If this is verified then we have Hurricane Ernesto already.

[mezzacyclone]

000

URNT12 KNHC 061450

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012

Closed eyewall and 67KT - If this is verified then we have Hurricane Ernesto already.

,,,etc

Was this verified SB?

Last VDM showed changes of an Open NW eye character(L) & 39kn max surface estimate (D) but min sea lev pressures static @ 996mb.

Certainly touch and go before landfall but Ern`s had us guessing throughout?

sidenote: on all but one personal observation Iv`e noted weak appearance on the NW quadrant? indicative of mixing out drier air the majority of its time?

has this been the major hindrance in Ernie`s development or forward speed never giving much chance for vertical stacking?

[Somerset Squall]

Ernesto has found itself in a much more favourable environment today but is not yet a hurricane. Intensity has levelled off at 55kts this evening. Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane as it moves just to the north of Honduras. Landfall is then expected on Belize at cat 1 or possibly cat 2 strength. It looks currently that as Ernesto gets stronger it will feel the weakness in the ridge more, so the track forecast from NHC has lifted north a little in the latest advisory. This means that Ernesto will spend more time over the Bay Of Campeche, which means it could become a hurricane again before landfall in Mexico.

[summer blizzard]

,,,etc

Was this verified SB?

Last VDM showed changes of an Open NW eye character(L) & 39kn max surface estimate (D) but min sea lev pressures static @ 996mb.

Certainly touch and go before landfall but Ern`s had us guessing throughout?

sidenote: on all but one personal observation Iv`e noted weak appearance on the NW quadrant? indicative of mixing out drier air the majority of its time?

has this been the major hindrance in Ernie`s development or forward speed never giving much chance for vertical stacking?

Sadly not, Ernesto stalled for much of the past 12 hours due to upper subsidence.

Dry air has been present to the NW but does not really prevent vertical stacking (just kills off a storm by strangling its moisture supply instead), given that Ernesto was at 20mph+ i would suggest that dry air could have had an impact as Ernesto would not have been able to mix it out as quickly.

Latest update from recon in now...

988mb (good strengthening).

17N so definitely a Mexico hit and more time in GOM once back over water.

29M Open eyewall (so pretty close to hurricane status still).

I would suggest the next advisory will have 70mph TS unless the eyewall is pretty close to closing.

Edited August 7, 2012 by summer blizzard

[Somerset Squall]

We are still at 55kts (65mph) despite the pressure falling to 989mb. NHC says the windfield has been expanding today which accounts for the drop in pressure but steady winds. Ernesto could still become a hurricane prior to landfall tonight. Even if it doesn't, Ernesto does have the potential to re-strengthen in the Bay of Campeche to hurricane status, but this is dependant on how much time it spends over water. Interesting that the GFS shows Ernesto (or it's remnants) moving into the East Pacific and strengthening there. This is also mentioned in the East Pacific discussion from NHC on TS Gilma:

IN

THE LONGER TERM...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE AREA OF

BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST

FROM 72-120 HR...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM

ERNESTO OR ITS REMNANTS CROSSING MEXICO AND RE-DEVELOPING IN THE

PACIFIC.

[summer blizzard]

Indeed, should be interesting.

Gotta say that it is really trying to get that eye..

[Somerset Squall]

RECON data just in has prompted NHC to upgrade Ernesto to a cat 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 70kts. A little further strengthening is possible before landfall on the Yucatan.

[mezzacyclone]

So he made it, thanks to all the informative posts people

[Somerset Squall]

Certainly looks impressive on that satellite image Mezza, I wouldn't be surprised if Ernesto strengthens a little more before landfall.

[mezzacyclone]

, I wouldn't be surprised if Ernesto strengthens a little more before landfall.

Mission 11 on the runway and data should be coming back for midnight and i think most of us anticipate the strengthening SS? considering the last images I wonder how much sub 984mb will he go?

The SW GOM/Campeche bay track is interesting me if he holds up over quintana roo, campeche, yucatan landfall etc.with anything between a 250-400 sea track before eastern Mexico shore?

[Somerset Squall]

The Bay of Campeche is well known for strengthening storms despite the reletively small body of water due to the shape of the Bay. Ernesto will lose some strength over the Yucatan obviously but with this slight northward shift in track I think Ernesto will easily regain hurricane strength in the BOC.

Jeff Masters explains it well here:

Hurricanes and tropical storms regularly cross Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enter the Bay of Campeche, the Gulf of Mexico's southernmost region. Since the crossing usually takes less than a day and the peninsula is surrounded by warm ocean water that can help feed the storm during the crossing, the great majority of storms survive the trek. Once in the Bay of Campeche, most storms regenerate, even though there is not much room for the storm to go before a second landfall in Mexico occurs. This is because the curved shape of the mountain-lined coast helps boost counter-clockwise spin of the air, and the waters in the bay are among the warmest in the North Atlantic. Typically, a storm that crosses the Yucatan with a mostly westward track and enters the Bay of Campeche will intensify by 15 - 25 mph before making a second landfall in Mexico.

Edited August 7, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[summer blizzard]

Indeed, just a shame there is no visible eye yet.

Given that Ernesto is strengthening and moving quicker, i do suspect the second landfall could be the stronger.

[summer blizzard]

Hurricane Ernesto made landfall officially at 85mph, 980mb but was strengthening at and during landfall.

Back to a 70mph TS now and about half way over but the core is still tight, outflow is still good and there is a large bulk of strong precipitation in its northern band which should aid any restructuring once back over water.

NHC only go for a marginal hurricane at second landfall but with close to 48 hours over water and a seemingly good structure intact i would place the odds of a stronger second landfall at 40% so still quite high as conditions are good over BOC.

[Somerset Squall]

Ernesto is tracking south of the previous track forecast, looks as if Ernesto will only have a brief dip in the BOC if at all. NHC have backed off Ernesto becoming a hurricane at all prior to second landfall.

Edited August 8, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Some decent looking potential to the West of the Cape Verde Islands at the moment, certainly something to keep an eye on.

[mezzacyclone]

Ernesto is tracking south of the previous track forecast, looks as if Ernesto will only have a brief dip in the BOC if at all. NHC have backed off Ernesto becoming a hurricane at all prior to second landfall.

yup, GFS was more or less bang on with the N&Westrn ridging & came very close, HWRF 2nd, BAMM 3rd, GFDL4th & NAM out of it totally with a TX hit?

But maybe an ever so slight jig WNWards on the latest`s give a sea track for a while?

here`s the CIMMS pic showing the pattern FWIW,

CIMMS steering

[Somerset Squall]

Ernesto's LLC has literally just moved back over water in the last hour. Looks like quite a short trip over the Bay Of Campeche, but Ernesto should regain some strength. I think NHC's secondry peak of 60kts is reasonable. If Ernesto does jog north at all then it may intensify more than that but that's not looking likely at this stage.

[summer blizzard]

Shame abut the track, so much potential.

[summer blizzard]

Well its got back over water and intensified quickly to 70mph, it should just about be making landfall now and may well be a hurricane again.

[Somerset Squall]

Ernesto has moved in land on a west-southwest trajectory and has started to weaken. Intensity is down to 50kts. Ernesto still has some intense bands of convection rotating about the well defined LLC, but with the mountainous terrain ahead Ernesto is expected to dissipate quite quickly.

[Somerset Squall]

This one has got people talking. NHC are saying that Ernesto has dissipated and that the remnant mid level circulation which appears to be rapidly organising into a tropical depression on the East Pacific side of Mexico will receive a new name. There is a good case for this as the LLC could not be tracked fully across Mexico. Others are saying that Ernesto is a tropical storm again in the East Pacific and the LLC has just relocated. I think NHC will stick to their guns and declare TS Hector (the next east pacific name) soon. Either way, this system contains the remnants of Ernesto.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Another tropical depression showing its hands approaching the East Caribbean. Will be interesting to see where this one will end up, looks to be moving virtually identical to what Ernesto did!

[iand61]

Although i'm not well up on hurricanes and much of the technical information given on previous posts; may i please thank all of you for the input which was of great help while we were on holiday on the Yucatan.

After hearing on a dodgy local channel that a Cat 1 was due to make landfall virtually over our heads we really struggled to get a proper tale from either our holiday rep or the hotel staff, both who took a "you must be mistaken" type of approach.

Then with the help of Netweather, wifi and my Iphone I was suddenly the local weather expert and, whilst I cannot say that I influenced any decision making with regard of setting up the hotel storm plan I did get quite a few comments on my sudden found knowledge and i'm sure a number of converts to Netweather.

As regards the storm itself; somewhat of a damp squib although the site of horizontal palm trees and sunbeds blowing about does give the impression that you have witnessed something special. The rain was nothing major with the majority of it falling overnight Tuesday/Wednesday.

What was most impressive IMO was the storm surge which, although only a couple of metres in height was sufficient to deposit debris almost into the hotel grounds and changed the contours of the beach considerably from before.

All in all, an experience worth seeing and although i've seen worse storms at home it certainly makes you understand why higher category hurricanes can cause havoc.

Again thanks NW.

[Somerset Squall]

And thanks for your account there. Luckily, the conditions weren't more favourable for strengthening otherwise it could of been much worse! Ernesto began to strengthen quite quickly prior to landfall, if it had a bit more time it could have ended up being a higher category hurricane. Really interesting to hear an account of someone who experienced the storm