Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 4th August 2012>

[Eye to the sky]

Really slinging it down here at the moment,also gone very dark,but no thunder as yet.The wind has really picked up too.

[MP-R]

Let's all enjoy the promised warm spell with the possible high temperatures, but becoming very humid on Friday, then hopefully its game on for Sat/Sunday. The possibility of those frightening night time storms, with thunderbolts and candles at the ready. It will be interesting to look at the Met Office faxes later this week as we approach the weekend. The event being 4/5 days away does pose the usual questions regards locations. Today's weather front does appear to be breaking up a little, but could pep up later for a while .

Here's hoping a corker turns up later in the weekend, say around Sunday evening onwards. Even something like 28th July 2008 would do nicely.

For those in the West Country that missed out on Saturday's or Sunday's thunderstorms, here's a photo thread of the event in this neck of the woods on Saturday: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74067-08-04-12-vicious-summer-thunderstorm/

[NUT]

The strikes are starting in the north west of england

[Deluxe]

Rumble of thunder at the reserve once again (TS2). 4 straight days of thunder

[mattyk1985]

I may get a storm, or a rumble of thunder at least :-) fingers crossed.

[legritter]

Nothing thundery here but looks like our front is starting to fire up again. Largish spots now breaking out and radar showing brighter colours to my west and s/west. Gone very dark and the Quantocks now out of view, wind just revved up a gear and the Jackdaws just done a runner.

[Evening thunder]

I can't remember having 2 straight days of thunder before, let alone 4..

[Coast]

What was thunder again?

[reef]

We've had a few rumbles of thunder from a small cell that has passed just a few miles to the north of here. Little rain however as it has just missed us.

Ironically its better than anything over the last few days though.

[mattyk1985]

We ended up in the middle of two :-( It will happen one day im sure lol. Still hopeful for today though.

[seabreeze86]

Loads of activity here today far more than previous days. Can here thunder in the distance but havent seen any lightning yet. The sky looks very angry at the moment.

[Allseasons-Si]

Here is my stills from sunday in NE england.

first two stills of a IC stretching across the sky.

two seperate CG's.

and finally,three stills of the same lightning,second one a bit wierd.

i will upload a vid soon,cheers.

[Cloud 10]

A fantastic 4 day spell of covective weather up here in the North East just about coming to

an end,but even now a die-hard cell is producing the odd lightning strike just north of Newcastle!

Just like to say thanks to everyone who has posted reports and pictures and forecasts etc.

[Thundery wintry showers]

4 consecutive days of thunder at Sandhutton (N Yorks) too, although I missed the fourth one as I was travelling down to Exeter- caught a couple of heavy showers on the way down though (around Leeds). The first two, for which I was around, were pretty spectacular though!

The previous three days all had as much shower activity as I expected, though thunder was if anything more widespread than I expected it to be on Saturday and Sunday. However, today was a real surprise- I only expected a few scattered showers to develop over northern England.

[legritter]

I've just looked at fax chart for this weekend and other charts and data and I think its a case of enjoy the warmer weather from later today through till late Sat as some very lively weather will be pushing north eastwards during Sunday.

As for Eastern parts, the warm drier weather could hang on as high pressure is reluctant to budge. indeed there is a fair likelyhood of large rainfall totals from Sunday through to Wednesday of next week. Beyond this is unknown territory. As for any thunder activity this will depend on location and the right atmospheric conditions, but the potential is there. There will be alot of frontal activity to our West and Southwest with troughs and fronts forming all over the place, high pressure versus low pressure almost fighting it out over us. So yet again an interesting spell of weather coming up.

Cheers legritter

[Nick F]

Looking at GFS and ECM over last few runs, it looks like showers and a few elevated storms arriving in the SW Saturday night, as western edge of moisture plume advecting north destabilises. Then showers/storms developing and spreading NE across western, central and northern areas during Sunday, the southeast and E Anglia probably remaining dry and sunny.

[Coast]

Looking at GFS and ECM over last few runs, it looks like showers and a few elevated storms arriving in the SW Saturday night, as western edge of moisture plume advecting north destabilises. Then showers/storms developing and spreading NE across western, central and northern areas during Sunday, the southeast and E Anglia probably remaining dry and sunny.

[Cloudwatcher]

Liking the look of that final image!

[Chris W]

Liking the look of that final image!

Then you'll love this.

[Coast]

Then you'll love this.

Hmmmmm,, France looks tempting!

[AWD]

Any chance I could bank the 06z for Sunday?? Would be good for my location.

In all serious though, Sunday is ages away yet and I wouldn't be surprised to see the South East get the best if the breakdown, even though it's not modelled too yet.

In between now and Sunday, every location will have a dream chart to drool over probably!

[Chris K]

Looks interestng so far but I bet it ends up being a cloudy damp frontal breakdown with minimal thunderstorms by time we get to sunday...

[Harry]

Then you'll love this.

06z looks very different, insofar as the CAPE is reduced further North and West and increased towards the South West, South and South East.

Could be quite a bit of movement on this in the coming days so beware!

Important to note that GFS is not the be all and end all of weather charts...if GFS falls in line with ECMWF, then the early to mid part of the next week could be very interesting IMO.

Edited August 8, 2012 by Harry

[gottolovethisweather]

06z looks very different, insofar as the CAPE is reduced further North and West and increased towards the South West, South and South East.

Could be quite a bit of movement on this in the coming days so beware!

Important to note that GFS is not the be all and end all of weather charts...if GFS falls in line with ECMWF, then the early to mid part of the next week could be very interesting IMO.

BANK.

[Cloudwatcher]

Then you'll love this.

Ooooooo!