Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

[Geordiesnow]

Ice extent is looking a tad depressing doesn't it? I can't see things improving a great deal either anytime soon, not until Barents/Kara Sea stops being under the influence of a mainly southerly type of flow.

It does seem kind of ironic that the very strong Southerly flow is coming from via a high pressure over Russia then once that enters the Arctic, the high over Eastern Europe could start to come into play and with low pressure over Norway sending an airflow similar to last winter where the winds are coming from open water therefore there is little chance of any sea ice forming thus ice extent will look just as embarrassing as it is now.

Really hoping we don't get conditions similar to last winter over the Barents/Kara Sea because at this moment in time, there is less ice now than there was this time last year but if indeed we do get mainly persistent Southerly winds, I do really wonder if this increases the risk of an ice free North Pole pretty much big time?

I also wonder if there is any link between the low ice over Barents/Kara Sea last year and the very high ice extent over the Labrador Sea? Looking at past charts, whenever it seems Barents/Kara is warm compared to average, the PV seems to end up quite strongly over Canada and therefore very cold conditions over the Labrador Sea hence above average ice was recorded there last year,

Also at this rate, Hudson Bay is more likely to freeze over before the ice reaches the Svalbard isles!

[quest4peace]

Current sea ice area anom at 1.78 million now

And definite sea ice at Barrow now, as mentioned earlier in the thread. Not a totally solid cover but nice to see regardless and not amazingly far from average, if you go by the 5th nov as the average day.

And looking at todays extent and concentration from AMSR2 Arctic Sea-Ice Monitor

on IJIS it's Barent's,Kara and Baffin that i would say is the main culprits now extent wise these areas looking particularly bad, as beaufort seems to be finally getting close to sealing up now?

Anomaly chart from nsidc.http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ red lines show how far away from normal we are on our side of the arctic and in Baffin

One last Map the current age of the areas of ice as of todays extent

Dark blue: Nilas Ice 0-10cm

Pink: Young ice 10-30cm

Green:First year ice 30-200cm

Brown: Survived at least one summers melt

And light Blue: Ice free

Will the brown area be next years min?

Edited November 6, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gray-Wolf]

We will lose some of the 'survived one melt' over winter via Fram and more of it will shuffle toward Fram for summer. Fram is the Joker in the pack as no matter how old or thick you are you will melt if flushed into the Atlantic.

I firmly believe that Albedo Flip is now firmly in control of the ice loss in the Arctic/Greenland and also the permafrost melt. If I am correct then this has big implications for sea level rise.

Latest research show that ice melt from Greenland/Antarctica took only a couple of hundred years to plump up the ocean by 10m in the last warm interglacial.

That rise in sea level was without the help of the Carbon we have now released into the system in fact the carbon that enabled this feat is still locked away in our permafrosts and below our ice sheets ( ready to emerge and be added into the system) but we are already at the levels that drove that rapid melt and sea level hikes .

How will this currently frozen element of the warm interglacial carbon cycle further impact melt rates? Are we looking at decades to melt out the ice sheets once we go significantly beyond todays GHG levels?

[quest4peace]

We will lose some of the 'survived one melt' over winter via Fram and more of it will shuffle toward Fram for summer. Fram is the Joker in the pack as no matter how old or thick you are you will melt if flushed into the Atlantic.

I firmly believe that Albedo Flip is now firmly in control of the ice loss in the Arctic/Greenland and also the permafrost melt. If I am correct then this has big implications for sea level rise.

Latest research show that ice melt from Greenland/Antarctica took only a couple of hundred years to plump up the ocean by 10m in the last warm interglacial.

That rise in sea level was without the help of the Carbon we have now released into the system in fact the carbon that enabled this feat is still locked away in our permafrosts and below our ice sheets ( ready to emerge and be added into the system) but we are already at the levels that drove that rapid melt and sea level hikes .

How will this currently frozen element of the warm interglacial carbon cycle further impact melt rates? Are we looking at decades to melt out the ice sheets once we go significantly beyond todays GHG levels?

Fram really is messing things up at the moment then?, as far as remaining thick ice goes If only we could stop losing the ice in this way, there would be a chance of maintaining what's left? and in better years even creating a larger area of thicker once again? Thus increasing radiation of heat back skyward. But Im only wishing really. Also would losing the permafrost leave these areas more prone to erosion?

Edited November 7, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gray-Wolf]

Fram is just doing what Fram does it's the rest of the Basin that appears to have changed!

This is why I get so aggitated when folk speak of recovery. I can only imagine all they see of ther arctic is a 2 dimensional world of ice extent/Area and nothing else?

We first saw Barentsz and Kara move from areas that held and nurtured Paleocryistic ice into areas that actively destroyed such ice to areas that started not even holding ice over winter anymore. We now see Beaufort, and it's Grye, that used to nurtures Paleocryistic ice now actively destroying it and having no ice left at all come summers end. We even now see a delay in re-freeze there (is it headed the same way as Barentsz/Kara?). We see Baffin ice free over summer and reduced ice over winter, East Siberian? reduced ice over summer , the list goes on.

The ice is now so young and weak that an 'average summer' can knock the 07' 'perfect storm' melt season for six!!!

The only area left is the north shore of Greenland and the 'compression ice' that rucks up there but we saw over 3m thickness of ice disappear there this past Aug so what is driving that monumental loss?

All I can do now is sit and watch. My worse fears (as voiced on here over the years) are made real and I dare not 'project' any more lest it also comes true. I've had my 'Doomsayer' label too long to face another round of that only to be proven right again!!!

[quest4peace]

Fram is just doing what Fram does it's the rest of the Basin that appears to have changed!

This is why I get so aggitated when folk speak of recovery. I can only imagine all they see of ther arctic is a 2 dimensional world of ice extent/Area and nothing else?

We first saw Barentsz and Kara move from areas that held and nurtured Paleocryistic ice into areas that actively destroyed such ice to areas that started not even holding ice over winter anymore. We now see Beaufort, and it's Grye, that used to nurtures Paleocryistic ice now actively destroying it and having no ice left at all come summers end. We even now see a delay in re-freeze there (is it headed the same way as Barentsz/Kara?). We see Baffin ice free over summer and reduced ice over winter, East Siberian? reduced ice over summer , the list goes on.

The ice is now so young and weak that an 'average summer' can knock the 07' 'perfect storm' melt season for six!!!

The only area left is the north shore of Greenland and the 'compression ice' that rucks up there but we saw over 3m thickness of ice disappear there this past Aug so what is driving that monumental loss?

All I can do now is sit and watch. My worse fears (as voiced on here over the years) are made real and I dare not 'project' any more lest it also comes true. I've had my 'Doomsayer' label too long to face another round of that only to be proven right again!!!

So fram can be taken off the guilty list I always write everything as a question if I can i kind of understand what you mean about you seemingly getting heckled, at every point, and the quote from a song that's apt is "They all laughed at christopher columbus, when he said the world was round" comes to mind.Unfortunately i don't know enough to say who i think is wrong and who is right, but you were always pointing out the loss of the thick ancient ice. I'm sure you take no satisfaction in the fact we have lost such resources, and just stick to what you believe/understand?,which is admirable in the face of adversity.I have now got used to understanding where the ice should be, multi and first year ice and ideal max extents/area/thickness's and mins etc.. from the various sites and comments on here. And also that for some reason, sst's are badly affecting freeze areas. Still a lot for me to learn, as there seems to be a dizzying amount of variables but I'm getting there slowly.

Mean while the sea ice has enveloped Barrow a lot more today

Edited November 7, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gray-Wolf]

In reality Fram has , over the past 50yrs, probably been the thing to break the Arctics back? I know that we have not replaced the ice thickness at the rate needed to keep the Arctic healthy but once thickness allowed better ice mobility then the size of the outlet at Fram allowed for vast areas to ship out.

Folk talk about the ice bridges from Greenland to Iceland as though it was some 'cold indicator' but was it merely an indicator of the speed and size of losses from Fram that allowed a very full East coast of Greenland (and the micro climate impacts so much ice would have locally?) that fueled the final installments of such events? When you look over winter you'll see the ice tongue extend toward the channel between Iceland and Greenland but it has been fed with losses from Fram and the reduced melt rates winter brings with it?

After revisiting the 'Global Dimming' phenomena I have had to embrace an even bleaker understanding of where we are headed and feel it even less likely that I will now ever see ice at min higher than the 2007 min.

With that side of things now over I suppose I should turn my attentions to the viability of the winter pack over the coming decades and how we will see the summer impacts increasingly manifest there. At least most of our posters will remember what an 'average' winter pack looks like? I feel that most of us have no notion of just how much of the summer pack we have lost having no notion of the scale of the ice that used to be present over summer. With folk happily posting thickness data for the winter pack there will be no missing the changes as thickness plummets (along with Area) once sea areas are no longer able to produce the ice anymore (as we see in Kara/Barrentsz and Baffin now).

Happy days eh?

[4wd]

In reality Fram has , over the past 50yrs, probably been the thing to break the Arctics back? I know that we have not replaced the ice thickness at the rate needed to keep the Arctic healthy but once thickness allowed better ice mobility then the size of the outlet at Fram allowed for vast areas to ship out.

Folk talk about the ice bridges from Greenland to Iceland as though it was some 'cold indicator' but was it merely an indicator of the speed and size of losses from Fram that allowed a very full East coast of Greenland (and the micro climate impacts so much ice would have locally?) that fueled the final installments of such events? When you look over winter you'll see the ice tongue extend toward the channel between Iceland and Greenland but it has been fed with losses from Fram and the reduced melt rates winter brings with it?

After revisiting the 'Global Dimming' phenomena I have had to embrace an even bleaker understanding of where we are headed and feel it even less likely that I will now ever see ice at min higher than the 2007 min.

With that side of things now over I suppose I should turn my attentions to the viability of the winter pack over the coming decades and how we will see the summer impacts increasingly manifest there. At least most of our posters will remember what an 'average' winter pack looks like? I feel that most of us have no notion of just how much of the summer pack we have lost having no notion of the scale of the ice that used to be present over summer. With folk happily posting thickness data for the winter pack there will be no missing the changes as thickness plummets (along with Area) once sea areas are no longer able to produce the ice anymore (as we see in Kara/Barrentsz and Baffin now).

Happy days eh?

Saved.

[quest4peace]

In reality Fram has , over the past 50yrs, probably been the thing to break the Arctics back? I know that we have not replaced the ice thickness at the rate needed to keep the Arctic healthy but once thickness allowed better ice mobility then the size of the outlet at Fram allowed for vast areas to ship out.

Folk talk about the ice bridges from Greenland to Iceland as though it was some 'cold indicator' but was it merely an indicator of the speed and size of losses from Fram that allowed a very full East coast of Greenland (and the micro climate impacts so much ice would have locally?) that fueled the final installments of such events? When you look over winter you'll see the ice tongue extend toward the channel between Iceland and Greenland but it has been fed with losses from Fram and the reduced melt rates winter brings with it?

After revisiting the 'Global Dimming' phenomena I have had to embrace an even bleaker understanding of where we are headed and feel it even less likely that I will now ever see ice at min higher than the 2007 min.

With that side of things now over I suppose I should turn my attentions to the viability of the winter pack over the coming decades and how we will see the summer impacts increasingly manifest there. At least most of our posters will remember what an 'average' winter pack looks like? I feel that most of us have no notion of just how much of the summer pack we have lost having no notion of the scale of the ice that used to be present over summer. With folk happily posting thickness data for the winter pack there will be no missing the changes as thickness plummets (along with Area) once sea areas are no longer able to produce the ice anymore (as we see in Kara/Barrentsz and Baffin now).

Happy days eh?

Can we absolutely come to the conclusion 2007 will never be reached again though?

Edited November 7, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gray-Wolf]

No we can't Q4P but this is how I feel? With mins, post 07' never going above the pre 07' record low why should the same not apply here? We came very close in 11' to taking the record with only an early end to the season saving the record. with such a massive margin from 2012 to 07's min there is plenty of room for 'bounce back' years (18% lower than 07' so plenty to 'bounce back' into without troubling 07'?).

I think we all accept that it would be dire indeed if we saw reductions 'year on year' and not the staggered reductions we see but it would appear that drops of 20% occur in record years these days?

That stops when the 3 million left is all at a similar thickness and melts out as fast as the bulk of the FY ice last Aug? At the end we will see a very rapid fall into the 'seasonal' sub 1 million mark and probably during Aug when melt is fastest due to both top and bottom melt being at play and large areas on the edge of 'melt out'.

[quest4peace]

No we can't Q4P but this is how I feel? With mins, post 07' never going above the pre 07' record low why should the same not apply here? We came very close in 11' to taking the record with only an early end to the season saving the record. with such a massive margin from 2012 to 07's min there is plenty of room for 'bounce back' years (18% lower than 07' so plenty to 'bounce back' into without troubling 07'?).

I think we all accept that it would be dire indeed if we saw reductions 'year on year' and not the staggered reductions we see but it would appear that drops of 20% occur in record years these days?

That stops when the 3 million left is all at a similar thickness and melts out as fast as the bulk of the FY ice last Aug? At the end we will see a very rapid fall into the 'seasonal' sub 1 million mark and probably during Aug when melt is fastest due to both top and bottom melt being at play and large areas on the edge of 'melt out'.

Hi GrayWolf "In the short term at least" should of been added to the end of my last post

Alas I do see the ice dwindling more and more in front of my eyes, I can see that, wondering how the polar bears etc are getting on in their new landscape. At the same time thinking to myself maybe next year,or the next or the next, there will be better conditions,admittedly being disappointed with a new record min being hit, year on year . I suppose were getting towards the amount of loss, that if it continues will end up with a point, where the amount of open sea(in the summer), will be too vast and be soaking up the 24hr sun even more and so will override any natural balancing forces regardless? Short of another tilt on the axis of the earth that is . Having hope isn't necessarily being blind,but without it what do we have?. We would be stupid not to accept what is happening before our eyes and choose to ignore it? I see that all to graphically . The feeling of powerlessness to do anything about the situation is quite awful. Therefore, all us non governmental people can do, is hope?

Edited November 9, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi GrayWolf "In the short term at least" should of been added to the end of my last post

Alas I do see the ice dwindling more and more in front of my eyes, I can see that, wondering how the polar bears etc are getting on in their new landscape. At the same time thinking to myself maybe next year,or the next or the next, there will be better conditions,admittedly being disappointed with a new record min being hit, year on year . I suppose were getting towards the amount of loss, that if it continues will end up with a point, where the amount of open sea(in the summer), will be too vast and be soaking up the 24hr sun even more and so will override any natural balancing forces regardless? Short of another tilt on the axis of the earth that is . Having hope isn't necessarily being blind,but without it what do we have?. We would be stupid not to accept what is happening before our eyes and choose to ignore it? I see that all to graphically . The feeling of powerlessness to do anything about the situation is quite awful. Therefore, all us non governmental people can do, is hope?

We'd also better hope that the NASA report saying 50% of the warming is being lost via particulate pollution (Global Dimming) is wrong and that the current 'cleanup' in Asia doesn't give a big boost to warming or that the low ice is causing circulation changes that favour ice loss or the healing ozone does not lead to rapid warming (and melt) in Antarctica by slowing the circumpolar winds/current there or that methane losses are not increasing due to high melt years?

All in all I think we need a miracle to undo what we have already introduced into the climate system esp. if some of the impacts are currently being hidden by the self same pollution at present.

We already see GHG levels last seen when oceans were 5m higher but wonder about where the 'missing heat' is. If that heat is currently being reflected away by pollution (i,e. the atmosphere is now primed to hold onto such temp levels) then any cleanup would surely lead to rapid warming up to the atmospheric 'balance point'?

Also the changes we have witnessed in the Arctic and Greenland occurred whilst the planet was 'dimmed' so what awaits once that dimming reduces?

[quest4peace]

We'd also better hope that the NASA report saying 50% of the warming is being lost via particulate pollution (Global Dimming) is wrong and that the current 'cleanup' in Asia doesn't give a big boost to warming or that the low ice is causing circulation changes that favour ice loss or the healing ozone does not lead to rapid warming (and melt) in Antarctica by slowing the circumpolar winds/current there or that methane losses are not increasing due to high melt years?

All in all I think we need a miracle to undo what we have already introduced into the climate system esp. if some of the impacts are currently being hidden by the self same pollution at present.

We already see GHG levels last seen when oceans were 5m higher but wonder about where the 'missing heat' is. If that heat is currently being reflected away by pollution (i,e. the atmosphere is now primed to hold onto such temp levels) then any cleanup would surely lead to rapid warming up to the atmospheric 'balance point'?

Also the changes we have witnessed in the Arctic and Greenland occurred whilst the planet was 'dimmed' so what awaits once that dimming reduces?

Wish i had an answer I really do people seem to of given up on this thread for now but we still need to post reports.

Current sst Anom map from noaa http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/

All i can see is wash of above average temps

And current sst's

http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

The latest IJIS value : 8,248,281 km² (November 8, 2012)

Seems to be dropping even further below average looking at the droop in that line?

And the nsidc chart http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/

Dreadful our side just look at the space above norway?? and around svalbard,finally closing alaskan side?,and baffin slightly sorry for it's self.

Good to report Barrow iced up at least though

Edited November 9, 2012 by quest4peace

[cheeky_monkey]

Wish i had an answer I really do people seem to of given up on this thread for now but we still need to post reports.

Current sst Anom map from noaa http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/

All i can see is wash of above average temps

And current sst's

http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

The latest IJIS value : 8,248,281 km² (November 8, 2012)

Seems to be dropping even further below average looking at the droop in that line?

And the nsidc chart http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/

Dreadful our side just look at the space above norway?? and around svalbard,finally closing alaskan side?,and baffin slightly sorry for it's self.

Good to report Barrow iced up at least though

seems to be the Atlantic side of the Arctic that is dragging its feet...this side and on the pacific side seems to have caught up...i blame all the hot air coming out of the winter and model output discussion topics on this forum that is doing all the damage!!!

[Gray-Wolf]

people seem to of given up on this thread for now but we still need to post reports.

I personally think the 'lull' is because the 'easy ice' (central pole and waters freshened with meltwater) have frozen and we are now left with problem areas?

Anyone looking at the negative anoms at C.T. will surely know why we are seeing them and for those looking for 'recovery' they might only be going to show that the changes forecast are real and happening in the basin today. I'm sure Beaufort will freeze over but how long a delay will the warm water there have cost it? how much warm water will still be left below the ice awaiting the first mixing of next melt season? How much ice thickness has the delay cost?

The same goes (again) for Baffin.

As for Barrentsz/Kara are they the sea areas already in the new ocean phase (awaiting the likes of Baffin ,Beaufort etc) with warm water allowing open water even in the polar dark of winter? The temp anoms on the islands on the russian side of Kara/Barrentsz just show what a difference this brings?

Also the pressure patterns around the basin sure look a bit odd with Greenland again at the thick of things? We have the magnetic pole headed one way and the 'polar vortex' the other?

[quest4peace]

seems to be the Atlantic side of the Arctic that is dragging its feet...this side and on the pacific side seems to have caught up...i blame all the hot air coming out of the winter and model output discussion topics on this forum that is doing all the damage!!!

I personally think the 'lull' is because the 'easy ice' (central pole and waters freshened with meltwater) have frozen and we are now left with problem areas?

Anyone looking at the negative anoms at C.T. will surely know why we are seeing them and for those looking for 'recovery' they might only be going to show that the changes forecast are real and happening in the basin today. I'm sure Beaufort will freeze over but how long a delay will the warm water there have cost it? how much warm water will still be left below the ice awaiting the first mixing of next melt season? How much ice thickness has the delay cost?

The same goes (again) for Baffin.

As for Barrentsz/Kara are they the sea areas already in the new ocean phase (awaiting the likes of Baffin ,Beaufort etc) with warm water allowing open water even in the polar dark of winter? The temp anoms on the islands on the russian side of Kara/Barrentsz just show what a difference this brings?

Also the pressure patterns around the basin sure look a bit odd with Greenland again at the thick of things? We have the magnetic pole headed one way and the 'polar vortex' the other?

Too much going on at the moment for me to grasp properly at the mo I suppose some people are taking a break from the thread, because of how depressing it is up there at the moment, and hope the next time they tune into the thread, things have improved, or at least on the face of it?. I'm just going to stick to posting the charts for now and see what you guys with more knowledge read in to them as i'm getting dizzy with it all

Edited November 9, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gray-Wolf]

Just to bring Oct into perspective look at the line of the ice edge of the Kara/Barrentsz sectors

Look odd to you?

[jonboy]

For the sake of clarity GW the full aricle can be found here

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

why do we have so much angst sea ice extent has ebbed and flowed over time. Yes we are lowest on the satelite record and may well be lowest for many many years but this has come at the end of a long period of high solar activity. we are in a period of low solar activity which with lag in my opinion we will start to see benifical effects over the next 10/15 years or more. I will eat my hat if in five years time we are not in a better place.

[Interitus]

For the sake of clarity GW the full aricle can be found here

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

why do we have so much angst sea ice extent has ebbed and flowed over time. Yes we are lowest on the satelite record and may well be lowest for many many years but this has come at the end of a long period of high solar activity. we are in a period of low solar activity which with lag in my opinion we will start to see benifical effects over the next 10/15 years or more. I will eat my hat if in five years time we are not in a better place.

Have you got any evidence to back up your belief?

[Geordiesnow]

Just to bring Oct into perspective look at the line of the ice edge of the Kara/Barrentsz sectors

Look odd to you?

I must admit, because of the set ups that were on offer, I never expected ice extent to recover from the lowest on record but I never thought ice extent will be this low compared to recent years, yes weather set ups on the Atlantic side of the Arctic have been quite poor for ice growth aswell as they have been across Baffin Bay but surely there is another reason why ice extent is so low? One thing I've noticed in recent years in the Autumn season in particular is just how weak the upper air temperatures are around the Svalbard area and then you compare that to the 70's and see how much colder it is then. Also the sheer persistance of a southerly type wind direction is incredible albeit we have seen winds coming from Russia at times during this Autumn season but these has been brief affairs and looking at the output, I can't really see this changing, ECM has been hinting at something more favourable for the Kara Sea but even then, its quite a tame affair.

As I said in the past, last year the wind direction contributed heavily to the below average ice extent in the Barents/Kara Seas, even the NSIDC admitted this in their reports. Only November really provided winds from a favourable direction hence ice extent was actually forming as normal in these areas(if albeit still below average) but December saw a change of wind direction and the ice was retreating and struggling to form in these areas and apart from a couple of brief times in January, wind direction was mainly coming from the open waters and it was not until March set ups became more favourable again and that was when the Kara Sea finally froze over completely whilst the Barents Sea was still at record breaking low ice extent.

What I'm trying to say is that the causes I feel was just from weather set ups rather than any ocean currents which may keep Barents/Kara ice free even during the winter months BUT what did cause the pressure patterns to be so persistent, and are we seeing a repeat of last year on the cards but in an even worse state now because of the lack of Northerly winds in these areas? And if it was as persistent as last year, then we are in big trouble because we will get an early spring melt and surely the North Pole will be under threat because of warmer waters from the Atlantic side of the basin?

[quest4peace]

Updated chart of todays extent and concentration from IJIS Arctic Sea-Ice Monitor

Since the sixth there has been a gradual reduction in ice from the kara, and even part of the arctic basin areas on our side of the world??. Ice still not touching svalbard either. Baffin expanding a little quicker now at least, hope it continues. looking at the sst anoms, they are in quite a distinct line, enveloping svalbard, kara and even part of the basin in a warm blanket of water.

While the uk has negative anoms around it in general?other than a negligable +1 around the irish sea.Any wonder i'm confused

Edited November 9, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

Some mixed trends at the moment with the different sea ice measures.

The NSIDC extent is slowly moving towards other years and is "just" 314k behind 2009 now.

The IJIS extent is moving further from the other years though, still over half a million km2 below the next lowest year, 2011.

On Cryosphere Today, we're 357k below the next lowest year on record, also 2009, which is gradually moving further away than earlier in the month.

Some very cold air flooding Hudson Bay over the next week, so it will be interesting to see if there is much of a refreeze, as the anomaly is beginning to grow there now. Main areas of refreeze over the next week looks like Beaufort, Chukchi, the Canadian Archipelago and Baffin Sea.

Overall, things looking pretty poor so far. I still think we'll join the rest of the pack just after mid-month though.

[pottyprof]

I think the Atlantic side is going to be problematic for a good while yet with all those warmer waters flowing up the eastern American coast.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I think the Atlantic side is going to be problematic for a good while yet with all those warmer waters flowing up the eastern American coast.

The Baffin Sea has cooled down now though, so hopefully we'll see some good growth there over the coming week. The Bering sea is looking good and cold too, so I still think this will bolster the extent during winter, dampen the effect of the low Barents and Kara.

The +ve air temp anomalies across Barents and Kara are beginning to look like Beaufort did the last month though, worse even.

[quest4peace]

The Baffin Sea has cooled down now though, so hopefully we'll see some good growth there over the coming week. The Bering sea is looking good and cold too, so I still think this will bolster the extent during winter, dampen the effect of the low Barents and Kara.

The +ve air temp anomalies across Barents and Kara are beginning to look like Beaufort did the last month though, worse even.

My that is one heck of a stretch of plus 20 surface temp anom above russia and siberia Ridiculous in fact

Paltry, paltry, 75k gain on IJIS as of yesterday.

The latest value : 8,323,438 km² (November 9, 2012)

Current sst anoms from DMI http://ocean.dmi.dk/...te/index.uk.php

Current 2m Surface temps in the Arctic according to http://ocean.dmi.dk/...cweather.uk.php

Blue areas are below -20C.Just look how small that area is though?

Green areas are anything between +5c and -15c,+5 would be warm for a summer day,wouldn't it?

Current mean Arctic temps above 80n

http://ocean.dmi.dk/...meant80n.uk.php

Here is a better map showing temps in degrees C from http://www.wetterpoo...gnosekarten.php

Clearly shows the area of warmer air cutting straight through the Arctic with cold temps either side.

Edited November 10, 2012 by quest4peace