Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

[Gray-Wolf]

The problem with shipping (as I see it?) is that it is one of the dirtiest forms of transport in use and so any shipping lane would have a wide spread of soot over the ice. This may well be covered as fresh snow falls but as we see in Greenland once melt begins the dirt becomes concentrated allowing for a more rapid melt out?

I'd agree with BFTV that ice disturbance is minimum with vessels following the path of earlier ships (from what I've seen of shipping in Baffin area?) as the 'break' is easier to traverse than solid sheets. The pressure on the ice from wind and current does push the two sides back together (limiting heat exchange from open water to atmosphere like we see in 'leads') but the two sides do not seem to fuse back together?

[laserguy]

I would also like to take this opportunity to thank you for your frequent updates.

Yah,me too. I know BFTV,GW and me don't see eye-to-eye on some things,but that's another matter. Tis' good to kick back after a 'grueller' at' mill and be able to catch up with what's happening instantly. So thanks,sincerely. Now where's me dinner?!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Excellent news.

I would also like to take this opportunity to thank you for your frequent updates.

Yah,me too. I know BFTV,GW and me don't see eye-to-eye on some things,but that's another matter. Tis' good to kick back after a 'grueller' at' mill and be able to catch up with what's happening instantly. So thanks,sincerely. Now where's me dinner?!

You guys....

I'm curious about where your interest in the Arctic stems from LG?

[Gray-Wolf]

With the 'Arctic' being plugged as the 'Canary in the coal mine' ,and it looking like the Canary might be about to give up it's last tweet, then it would also be the place to witness us 'recovering' from the brink (and avoid the other discomforts that un-mitigated human induced climate shift promises to impose on our current way of being).

The frequency and fervor with which we've heard the cries of 'recovery' since the 07' slump proves this to me but the shock of 2012 outdoing that slump (by over an 18% further reduction in Area?) in an 'average' polar year (though I won't refer folk to the DMI 80 degree north plot to show this ...LOL) has, I imagine, given pause for thought for many of the 'on the fence'ers?

Edited November 27, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

Quite a disparity between the IJIS and NSIDC extent today.

The IJIS has yesterday down as a drop of about 12k, which is somewhat unusual for the time of year. A clear loss of ice from the Bering sea as southerlies kick in visible here

Meanwhile, the NSIDC have yesterday down as an increase of 189k, more than double the typical daily gain for the time of year, taking us to 905k away from the long term average, closest since June 9th.

[quest4peace]

Quite a disparity between the IJIS and NSIDC extent today.

The IJIS has yesterday down as a drop of about 12k, which is somewhat unusual for the time of year. A clear loss of ice from the Bering sea as southerlies kick in visible here

Meanwhile, the NSIDC have yesterday down as an increase of 189k, more than double the typical daily gain for the time of year, taking us to 905k away from the long term average, closest since June 9th.

Data error for ijis? Bering has been above average in recent days, from what i can see on cryosphere today

Edited November 27, 2012 by quest4peace

[4wd]

In any case the southerly winds will have caused compaction and ridging to create open water rather than melting, so a mass-increasing process as more open water is available to rapidly freeze again soon.

[Geordiesnow]

I think the loss may have more to do with the ice retreat in Baffin Bay in my eyes, looks more substantial than any ice loss in Bering Sea in my eyes.

I think we will see some gains though to counter against those losses, Hudson Bay looks most favorable, Kara sea potentially also, certainly no signs of any awful southerlies in this area and long shall that remain. If ice extent keeps low, I can only assume it will be because of conditions in Baffin Bay and unlike the Kara/Barents last year, you don't imagine any southerlies lasting for virtually the whole of winter around here.

Must also remember, the Labrador Sea had way above average ice last winter but it was thin and stretched so to speak so despite this, it quickly melted, perhaps less ice extent but a more concentrated pack in this area may mean the ice will hold out for longer?

[Rainy]

If this is a success http://www.bbc.co.uk...nment-20454757 then the ice is doomed.

The world's gone mad. Where is 007 when you need him.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Further losses for IJIS yesterday. The extent for the 26th was revised up slightly (still a loss) so yesterday's drop is 24k, taking us back to 2nd lowest on record.

Looking at the concentration image, it seems losses in the Baffin Sea and the Bering Sea (extending into Chukchi now too) are overcoming gains in Kara and Hudson.

It will be interesting to see what the NSIDC show later

[knocker]

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/icegraphics.php

[BornFromTheVoid]

NSIDC extent now agreeing with IJIS, with yesterday showing a drop of 72k, putting back below 2007 to 3rd lowest on record.

No update from Cryosphere Today for a few days now.

[gagerg]

A nightmare situation is unfolding with the ice thickness. This ice is not going to last long in summer and with the recent losses I predict the whole thing could melt come April

Edited November 28, 2012 by gagerg

[BornFromTheVoid]

A nightmare situation is unfolding with the ice thickness. This ice is not going to last long in summer and with the recent losses I predict the whole thing could melt come April

Hi gagerg, the melting usually doesn't begin in earnest until April, so it's not going to melt out completely at that time of year. What we need to keep an eye on is the progression of the volume, which you can see here

If we're significantly below last year come the end of March, then concern about a near complete melt out (less than 1 million km2 remaining) may well be justified.

On top of that, the sea ice left around the north of Greenland will still have some sections that are very thick, and are unlikely to be reduced down to the point of melting out for another few years yet.

The worst case scenario for next year, would be if the volume is well below recent year and we see widespread open water by May. This would allow a build up of heat in the ocean when the sun is at its highest and strongest, then as the ice, currents and winds mix things up, the warmer water max begin to eat into that thicker ice near Greenland.

A strong dipole pattern, especially in late Summer/early Autumn could shift out a lot of that thick ice also, as the ice is more fractured and easily moved by winds. In that kind of scenario, we could see an essentially "ice free" Arctic by September 2013.

But definitely no melt out next April!

Edited November 28, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[quest4peace]

Double posted??

Edited November 28, 2012 by quest4peace

[quest4peace]

Worrying shot from the IJIS Amsr Extent and Concentration map for today. Anybody notice the big crack developing just off North eastern greenland?? Blue streak of open water has suddenly appeared?

Edited November 28, 2012 by quest4peace

[gagerg]

Worrying shot from the IJIS Amsr Extent and Concentration map for today. Anybody notice the big crack developing just off North eastern greenland?? Blue streak of open water has suddenly appeared?

I'd blame the high SSTs in the area of the big crack that has just formed.

Not only that, but there is an area of high temperatures that are cutting into the eastern part of Greenland.

I do hope that the melting stops for it would increase the chances of having well blow average volume in March.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Worrying shot from the IJIS Amsr Extent and Concentration map for today. Anybody notice the big crack developing just off North eastern greenland?? Blue streak of open water has suddenly appeared?

Tis much bigger than a crack!

You could actually see the open water area developing yesterday too. We're seeing a very strong southerly air flow up across the north of Greenland, which is driving the sea ice poleward, away from the coast, and carrying anomalously warm air over the region.

Impressive cold anomalies across Antarctica though.

[gagerg]

Tis much bigger than a crack!

You could actually see the open water area developing yesterday too. We're seeing a very strong southerly air flow up across the north of Greenland, which is driving the sea ice poleward, away from the coast, and carrying anomalously warm air over the region.

Impressive cold anomalies across Antarctica though.

This is the same scenario as last year isn't it?

[BornFromTheVoid]

This is the same scenario as last year isn't it?

Not sure what scenario you're referring to?

Air pressure-wise, at the moment we have a strong high pressure system situated to the east of Greenland, with low pressure to the west into Canada. This is causing southerly winds to move northward over Greenland and push sea ice away from it's northern coastline.

This pattern looks set to remain over the next few days at least.

This time last year, and well into December, we had mainly low pressure to the east of Greenland, so a very different pattern.

[quest4peace]

Tis much bigger than a crack!

You could actually see the open water area developing yesterday too. We're seeing a very strong southerly air flow up across the north of Greenland, which is driving the sea ice poleward, away from the coast, and carrying anomalously warm air over the region.

Impressive cold anomalies across Antarctica though.

Slight under statement by me there Is this unheard of or can it happen in any given year?

Edited November 28, 2012 by quest4peace

[keithlucky]

NSIDC extent now agreeing with IJIS, with yesterday showing a drop of 72k, putting back below 2007 to 3rd lowest on record.

No update from Cryosphere Today for a few days now.

Wrong back to normal

[BornFromTheVoid]

Wrong back to normal

That graph clearly shows the drop in extent, and also shows that even when considering the last 11 years, we are still well below normal.

What exactly do you think I'm wrong about, and how are you disproving it? I hope that's not asking too much.

Slight under statement by me there Is this unheard of or can it happen in any given year?

I presume it has happened before in summer, but it would take some trawling through old concentration images to find previous examples for this time of year. Don't have time for that now I'm afraid!

Edited November 28, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[Gray-Wolf]

I tend to use;

http://www.woksat.info/wos.html

over winter. you can get some good images of the ice and fractures. Below is the north of Greenland and that fissure. in the past the North of Greenland was fused to the ice but no longer so these days. This means that all of that loverly old,thick ice can float to Fram rather than being stuck to the north Shore. Not good for volume as this is where we can still trim out the last of the volume that is not seasonal ice. that would mean that winter variation would be pegged with only small variations in volume due to thickness of first year ice as it forms (thicker over colder winters?)

Edited November 28, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[gagerg]

I tend to use;

http://www.woksat.info/wos.html

over winter. you can get some good images of the ice and fractures. Below is the north of Greenland and that fissure. in the past the North of Greenland was fused to the ice but no longer so these days. This means that all of that loverly old,thick ice can float to Fram rather than being stuck to the north Shore. Not good for volume as this is where we can still trim out the last of the volume that is not seasonal ice. that would mean that winter variation would be pegged with only small variations in volume due to thickness of first year ice as it forms (thicker over colder winters?)

Say hello to ice free summers I guess...