Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

[songster]

Because presumption is always preferable to evidence.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Volume continues along its record low track and has even moved further away from previous years, despite extent having caught back up.

[Gray-Wolf]

When we #presume' then it is best to do so with the best of the evidence we have to hand. With volume lower than this time last year and at the low end of extent I have to wonder about the development of pressure ridges?

With warm water at depth the depth gained by such features would surely place the base back into the melt zone? I even hazard that any over riding will push the base into the melt zone and flush out the halocline at the ice front?

Difficult to read apart from low extent/area coupled to a low volume meaning less ice than the same time last year.

I really worry that if ice thickness is the flaw allowing major ice melts in average weather years that another winter with a record low volume bodes very poorly for the summer melt. And if the MetO record global temp year comes off? Well I don't know!

[quest4peace]

2m Temps not amazingly cold over the Arctic at the moment,

Edited December 24, 2012 by quest4peace

[gagerg]

Extent wise the Arctic ice is doing very poorly with what seems to be a steady downward progression

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

[Gray-Wolf]

Huzzah!!! Santa came through with my wish!!!

Or did Bremen just have a darn good Chrimbo bash????

Edited December 25, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[pottyprof]

Huzzah!!! Santa came through with my wish!!!

Looks like a serious case of brewers droop to me? You still happy with that wish? lol

[gagerg]

Massive losses in area recently with sea ice concentration also dropping.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

[knocker]

Changes in Arctic sea ice result in increasing light transmittance and absorption

Arctic sea ice has declined and become thinner and younger (more seasonal) during the last decade. One consequence of this is that the surface energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is changing. While the role of surface albedo has been studied intensively, it is still widely unknown how much light penetrates through sea ice into the upper ocean, affecting sea-ice mass balance, ecosystems, and geochemical processes. Here we present the first large-scale under-ice light measurements, operating spectral radiometers on a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) under Arctic sea ice in summer. This data set is used to produce an Arctic-wide map of light distribution under summer sea ice. Our results show that transmittance through first-year ice (FYI, 0.11) was almost three times larger than through multi-year ice (MYI, 0.04), and that this is mostly caused by the larger melt-pond coverage of FYI (42 vs. 23 %). Also energy absorption was 50% larger in FYI than in MYI. Thus, a continuation of the observed sea-ice changes will increase the amount of light penetrating into the Arctic Ocean, enhancing sea-ice melt and affecting sea-ice and upper-ocean ecosystems.

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/pip/2012GL053738.shtml

[Gray-Wolf]

This is why it is foolish for folk to think that the massive changes occuring do not impact our climate? With an ever thicker 'blanket' around our planet to trap re-emitted wavelengths this move to ever thinner ice just increases the speed and depth of the changes.

Edited December 29, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[pottyprof]

With an ever thicker 'blanket' around our planet to trap re-emitted wavelengths this move to ever thinner ice just increases the speed and depth of the changes.

Does this only happen now we've discovered it or did it happen before that point?

[Gray-Wolf]

Does this only happen now we've discovered it or did it happen before that point?

I believe we've known that ice , below 1m thick, lets a lot of energy through . Some folk have been hammering on about some kind of balancing act that the pole has with all the energy saved over summer is spent (back harmlessly into space) before the onset of the Arctic winter. I've always confronted such nonsense but still it appears. The inclusion of energy harvested before the ice has melted is just 'more' energy that those folk now need to account for. Remember the IceBridge ,and associated fly overs, discovered the Beaufort and East Siberian were at the 1m thickness level (or below) at winters end last year so once snow cover has gone the rising suns energy is able to have an influence from the get go come Arctic sun up.

Open water late into autumn means a lot of snow cover is lost to the ocean (as we all saw from the Healy Cam whilst waiting for signs of re-freeze?) so snow coverage goes away quite fast ,come spring, these days. We all know the 'blue/green ice' that shows us melt water on the ice surface and I believe we've all noted how much earlier it appears each year?

[barrel1234]

Ice bridge to Iceland? http://nsidc.org/dat...xtent_hires.png

Or is that not quite as it seems?

I have been doing some thinking about Arctic temps. 2012 from this graph http://ocean.dmi.dk/...meant80n.uk.php had greatly above average temps in most of the calender months with the exception of the warmest months which appear to have colder than average temps, this seems to generally be the case from 2000 ish onwards, generally speaking the years previous with higher than average temps for the warmest months in many cases almost has a reversal of the previously stated trend.

My thoughts are as I am now falling over to the side of the deeply skeptical side of the agw fence is that perhaps warmer than average Arctic summer temps indicate increases in global temperature and possibly lower than average Arctic summer temps can indicate the start of a cooling trend. I have to admit that i have not done a great amount of research into correlations due to having very little free time but the graph link is here if anyone wants to have a play around.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/...meant80n.uk.php

edit

I have to declare that I am slightly biased in believing that there will be a cololing trend in future years due to lower solar output, and my 'possible correlation' is largely based around this. And hugely based around lag times!!!

Edited December 31, 2012 by barrel1234

[BornFromTheVoid]

With the DMI temperature, many changes in the techniques and sources used to create the time series may be part of the apparent minor decline in summer temps, much more discussion on it here. But the reality is that while there is sea ice present, the temperature will not climb much above 0C, as the warmth goes into converting ice to water.

To get a look at the trends in temperature, it can be slightly better to look at the temperatures a little higher in the atmosphere where the sea ice melt doesn't have as much of an effect, such as at the 850hPa level or to use a slightly larger area, as there is much more Arctic south of 80N than north of it.

[Gray-Wolf]

The guys still waving the DMI 80N plots will have a hell of a shock once the central ice moves or is lost at summers end? Last years reluctance to cool at summers end was a start to this process,

If we see the Laptev Bite again this year we may well see the remnant pack split into two? Add a storm thereafter and you can clear the central pack and see what 2m temps do there then?

As for a cooling Arctic where is the thicker ice? how else would this cooling manifest? year on year thicker ice beyond 80n would be a sure sign of this but we has seen the dead opposite.

[barrel1234]

With the DMI temperature, many changes in the techniques and sources used to create the time series may be part of the apparent minor decline in summer temps, much more discussion on it here. But the reality is that while there is sea ice present, the temperature will not climb much above 0C, as the warmth goes into converting ice to water.

To get a look at the trends in temperature, it can be slightly better to look at the temperatures a little higher in the atmosphere where the sea ice melt doesn't have as much of an effect, such as at the 850hPa level or to use a slightly larger area, as there is much more Arctic south of 80N than north of it.

Good points bftv

The gfs is not looking very good for ice over our side for the next week or so with at times some very mild southerlies blowing in.

Edited December 31, 2012 by barrel1234

[BornFromTheVoid]

Good points bftv

The gfs is not looking very good for ice over our side for the next week or so with at times some very mild southerlies blowing in.

Something interesting on the DMI temperatures, is looking at how often it drops below -33C (240k). Every year went below that temperature for between a few days and several weeks until we had the first year without in 2001. Since then 2005, 2009 and 2011 have failed to get that low. With mild southerlies you mentioned, it looks very likely that we won't do it this years either, making it the first 2 years in a row not to drop below -33C.

Something to keep an eye on to see when this streak will be broken.

[quest4peace]

1979's 80n temp plot

Really interesting to note, how far below average the line went, for most of the year.

2012's temp plot oh dear....

[Gray-Wolf]

Well, here we are again!

Lower volume than ever before and two previous years showing us that average weather challenges 07's low. Surely with volume even less than last year we face a more extensive melt this time around?

Some folks were saying , last June, that the NW Passage would not open due to the ice there being 3m thick at winters end. If that were true then 3m of ice was melted out before Aug. Do we have much 3m ice in the basin?

ICEBridge showed us thin ice in Beaufort last spring, will we see similar this year? The same with the overflies of East Siberian (less than 1m thick last spring!!!) ,will we see similar in 3 months?.

Winter season (re-freeze) is half over and we have seen a lot of warm temps over this time throughout the basin. Cold temps appear fleeting at best. With Svalbard again having rain in late Dec and tying with last years record high temps it looks like Barrentsz and Kara will again be poor come spring , as will Baffin and maybe even Hudson?

All in all I'm beginning to think that another record year is more likely than not? We know 'Average years will take us beyond 07' as we've been seeing this occur already but we are ever closer to another 'perfect storm year (every 10 to 20yrs with the two before 07' having ten year spacings) so what would a melt favourable year bring us???

We also have this 'New' 'Laptev Bite' where a bite is taken from the remaining central ice in late Aug (on the Laptev side of things). I am with the folk who see this as an extension of the N.A.D. late in the season. As the ocean warms less heat is sapped from the current so it penetrates further. Each year since it first arrived it has grown larger and , should this trend continue, it will make the pole soon enough or split the remaining ice in two. If a split occurs then the inertia of the ice to movement is also lessened so we could see our side drift into the mouth of Fram and be lost over winter. That may prove to be the way the ice will go to seasonal in the following years with only a small central pool of older ice, at risk from Fram, and the rest new ice across the whole basin. Remember C.A. may have melted 3m of 'new ice' before Aug last year.

[quest4peace]

Current 2m surface temps in the arctic still quite woeful especially around the pole. "SurfaceTemps" of nearly +10c near to Svalbard That cant be good?

Edited January 2, 2013 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

Sea Ice Extent for the year based on the NSIDC data

[quest4peace]

Good to see we are above 2010 at years end, but apart from that pretty dire

[BornFromTheVoid]

Based on the daily extent values, the mean annual extent in 2012 was the lowest on record at 10,417,502km2. This is 1,768,180km2 lower than the average of the first 10 years from 1979-1988 (12,185,682km2).

[quest4peace]

Based on the daily extent values, the mean annual extent in 2012 was the lowest on record at 10,417,502km2. This is 1,768,180km2 lower than the average of the first 10 years from 1979-1988 (12,185,682km2).

Hi BFTV Not looking good for the max this year? The area has dropped to over 1 million below again as well hasn't it?

[4wd]

1979's 80n temp plot

Really interesting to note, how far below average the line went, for most of the year.

2012's temp plot oh dear....

I think claiming a shift change from that is dodgy, you only need to look at 2010 and it was near enough as much below the average as above.

Then look at 1976:

Some years are quite a way off the norm for whatever reason.

You can't really imply 'it can't get cold anymore' - just look at Siberia and Alaska breaking cold records.

Slight pattern shift and that cold air could just as easily be displaced northwards.

Edited January 3, 2013 by 4wd