Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

[Gray-Wolf]

The above shows the methane levels above the pole since 2009. I think it illustrates well what the open water in Barrentsz and Kara is allowing to occur.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Some rare (relatively) positive news on the sea ice front.

After a jump in NSIDC extent yesterday of just over 160k, we're only 195,100km2 off the 2011 maximum. We're also only 239k and 295.6k off the 2006 and 2007 maxima respectively.

With sea ice area, the 3rd of this month was the first time that global sea ice area reached above average since spring of 2012. We're also just 166k off the 2011 Arctic maxima for area.

Whist the extent in March isn't a great predictor of extent the following September, it's at least somewhat positive that we're not lowest on record.

Here's the past NSIDC one day maxima with the current extent included.

Latest NSIDC update, giving an overview of January sea ice conditions for both the Arctic and Antarctica.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Edited February 5, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[BornFromTheVoid]

Since the good news in the last post, things in the Arctic have had a bit of a slump. the NSIDC sea ice extent has dropped over the last 2 days, losing 193k. This is enough to cause the first drop in the 5 day mean since last September.

[Don]

Since the good news in the last post, things in the Arctic have had a bit of a slump. the NSIDC sea ice extent has dropped over the last 2 days, losing 193k. This is enough to cause the first drop in the 5 day mean since last September.

Well lets face it, any good news ref Arctic ice is unlikely to last long! You have to laugh really.

Edited February 7, 2013 by Don

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd just like to make the point that we have not had an ice free basin in over 16 million years. Folk who dip in here for info may have been re-assured that the low ice levels, that we have been seeing since 07', were 'nothing new'. I'd like them to grasp that 'no ice' levels are a game changer in human history.

New moon tides seem to be messing with the basin ice (from what the sats are able to show) with a lot of leads now basin wide). In the past such disruption was a coastal event but now ice is so thin we see impacts throughout the basin.

The other thing now approaching is 'Arctic Sun up'. If we recall last year the increased moisture over the Arctic played merry heck with timings for sun up. Will we see premature sun up again this year?

[4wd]

Exsqueeze me? - more moisture in the Arctic changed the earth's rotation?

Or is this a bizarre claim about an observation from one particular place involving refraction, then trying to imply this is some unheard of event.

Also your claim about 16 million years is entirely without foundation.

There is ample evidence of open water producing beaches on the north coast of Greenland.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Exsqueeze me? - more moisture in the Arctic changed the earth's rotation?

Or is this a bizarre claim about an observation from one particular place involving refraction, then trying to imply this is some unheard of event.

Also your claim about 16 million years is entirely without foundation.

There is ample evidence of open water producing beaches on the north coast of Greenland.

More to do with the extra moisture causing the sunlight to be refracted differently. Which can actually make it appear that the sun would rise earlier than it used to, but it's just an optical illusion of sorts. Apparently it was quite rare in one place, though may also have been due to a lowering of the Greenland ice sheet from melting. http://www.huffingto...d_n_811657.html

I think that the Eemian (around 120,000 years ago) was likely to have produced seasonally ice free conditions in the Arctic. I don't think that necessarily makes things comparable to today, as the causes were very different (increased GHGs and black carbon vs orbitally forced insolation changes), but for Greenland to have been 6-8C warmer than today, I would imagine ice free conditions in the Arctic ocean would have been common.

Edited February 10, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks BFTV. Yes the refractive properties of the atmophere 'bend' gthe approaching sun to give as much as 2 days difference in the 'sun up' dates.

Apparently the first dawn of the year is eagerly awaited in parts of Greenland and so it's early arrival freaked out folk there. There was also the 'glow' the approaching sun made on the horizon also being visible far earlier than was normal.

Ice free basin is a year round ice free basin. The loss of the ice will , apparently lead to much later refreeze dates and much earlier melt out dates. this will ,over a period of decades, lead to a year round ice free basin.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Ah right, a consistently ice free Arctic. Will be quite surprised if we have that anytime soon though.

I certainly wouldn't expect it within my own lifetime.

[Gray-Wolf]

looks like Beaufort might see another early coastal water spring? Seems like the thin ice just can't take the stresses?

[Gray-Wolf]

Ah right, a consistently ice free Arctic. Will be quite surprised if we have that anytime soon though.

I certainly wouldn't expect it within my own lifetime.

I used to think it a long way off but I'm not so certain now. I think we'd better delay the discussion until we have an ice free Basin and see how fast the ice free date moves back into the year?

If we see 3 months of ice free happening over the first 15yrs of the change then I imagine the change this drives will install an ice free basin in a matter of decades.

First things first though, we need to see an ice free basin and see what scale of impacts this drives in the climate system? This might well occur over the next few years but i'm sure we're patient?

[BornFromTheVoid]

looks like Beaufort might see another early coastal water spring? Seems like the thin ice just can't take the stresses?

That movement of the ice from Beaufort towards the Bering strait is what's to be expected under -ve AO and -ve dipole conditions, with northerlies going from the Arctic Ocean into the Bering Sea. We saw this last year too, and with the continued -ve PDO, and thin, weak ice that's easily shifted, it's perfect for large extent values in the Bering Sea.

The rate of movement and massive amount of fractures is worrying though, especially for an area that used to generate so much thick, multiyear ice.

I used to think it a long way off but I'm not so certain now. I think we'd better delay the discussion until we have an ice free Basin and see how fast the ice free date moves back into the year?

If we see 3 months of ice free happening over the first 15yrs of the change then I imagine the change this drives will install an ice free basin in a matter of decades.

First things first though, we need to see an ice free basin and see what scale of impacts this drives in the climate system? This might well occur over the next few years but i'm sure we're patient?

Thing is, I don't think there will be a particularly large step change in the summer/Autumn that the Arctic goes ice free. Last September for example, we had so little ice coverage left, and what was left was quite low concentration and thin. In that state, I reckon the Arctic is already about acting almost as though it was ice free for a short while already.

When we might really start to see a rapid transition towards an annually ice free Arctic, is when the Arctic becomes ice free into July, or especially June. With the strong 24 hour sunlight, we could see some extremely rapid changes then. But I think it will be a relatively gradual climb to that point.

[BornFromTheVoid]

After the latest NSIDC update, we're now just 139k off the 2011 daily maximum, which was set on on March 7th.

[Gray-Wolf]

I am starting to get a we bit excited about the coming melt season now. It's not any morbid curiosity but a real excitement at seeing just how things pan out?

I'd agree that the basin is acting pretty much ice free for a potion of the year as the 'stuborn ice' beyond 80N would not be milking much energy in sept if ice free anyway? the open water up to 80N is another matter and some sections are clear of ice by late July and so acting in a similar way to how they would when we turn seasonal?

After 07' we saw marked changes in the basin as the energy went into dispatching the last of the older ,thicker ice. What will the change 2012 brought mean to the melt season this year? We saw both extensive melt water pooling over the FY ice (remember the 'blue ice'?) and the Algal blooms we measured below the pack? Tie this in with the knowledge that FY ice transmits 3 times the energy of older ice and we might see and even faster move towards the bulk of the ice melting out.

On that front what would be a good 'part way marker' that we could use mid season to see if the bulk is melting out earlier? I remember the C.A. being pretty much gone by late July last year and that was purported to be 3m thick FY ice? It'd be also interesting to see if the older ice is impacted earlier in the season?

As you know I believe that some of this ice is now a thick slab of FY ice with older ice at the surface so we could see it display some interesting behaviour over the height of melt season?

Then there's Greenland to watch!

Never mind any 'odd' weather across the northern hemisphere this summer?

[4wd]

I am starting to get a we bit excited about the coming melt season now.

You'll be disappointed then, it will be a large maximum this year - and unless another unusual storm bashes things about early autumn it will probably be a much higher minimum this year too.

Also the Greenland melting was associated with warm air from last year's North American high temperatures which had origin in a dry and mild winter - not happening this year.

[BornFromTheVoid]

You'll be disappointed then, it will be a large maximum this year - and unless another unusual storm bashes things about early autumn it will probably be a much higher minimum this year too.

Also the Greenland melting was associated with warm air from last year's North American high temperatures which had origin in a dry and mild winter - not happening this year.

So you're saying it was the storm that resulted in last summer being a record minimum?

The Greenland melt was associated with a very strong upper ridge and -ve NAO, something which has been a common spring/summer feature over the last few years.

[knocker]

According to a paper I posted a short while ago the storm only had a very small effect. This was it again.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-01/uow-cdn013113.php

Edited February 10, 2013 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

According to a paper I posted a short while ago the storm only had a very small effect.

Very true, I'm just hoping that 4wd would explain his position a little more.

[4wd]

Well that's not what we were told at the time.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm curious as to 4's predictions for the year?

Does he expect some kind of 'rebound' from the losses last year? Past experience seems to hint at ice levels being unable to rise above the last record year (07') in future and I'm not sure I could see that as 'recovery'?

The years after the last record fall saw all the paleocryistic ice disappear so will we see similar impacts on the multi-year ice this time?

And what about the first year ice? all we now know about it's properties must have us concerned for it's behaviour over summer? This year we have 18% more FY ice than last (courtesy of the melt last summer) and this will be present from the get go this spring. Will this not have it's own impact on the season? will we not have more open water earlier in the season? Will we not see impacts from the properties of the FY on the transmission of energy to the ocean below (from the get go)?

Without explanation I have to think that 4's prediction is nothing more than a 'wish-cast' that pays no attention to the realities at hand?

[Gray-Wolf]

We've just consigned a chunk of the thick Greenland coast ice to fram. anyone watching the 'ice thickness maps' will have seen the 'stretch' put on the ice by the current atmospherics with a goodly chunk of the ice being pulled into the B.Gyre but the remainder flowing around the tip of Greenland into Fram.

The thin ice is rupturing and shearing under the pressure of the synoptics with any coastal contact leading to a mass of small fragmentation floes.

If it has another month of this motion left then the thickest of ice risks being drawn out in a plume in front of Bering and we know what occurs to ice situated there!

With Imbolc already with us Spring awaits and the harshest of winter is leaving us.......

Edited February 12, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

An international team of scientists using new measurements from ESA’s ice mission has discovered that the volume of Arctic sea ice has declined by 36% during autumn and 9% during winter between 2003 and 2012.

Satellite records show a constant downward trend in the area covered by Arctic sea ice during all seasons, but in particular in summer. The past six years have seen the lowest summer ice extent in three decades, reaching the lowest last September at about 3.61 million sq km.

A team of scientists led by University College London has now generated estimates of the sea-ice volume for the 2010–11 and 2011–12 winters over the Arctic basin using data from ESA’s CryoSat satellite.

This study has confirmed, for the first time, that the decline in sea ice coverage in the polar region has been accompanied by a substantial decline in ice volume.

The new CryoSat dataset shows the volume’s continuing decline observed from 2003 to 2008 by NASA’s ICESat satellite.

http://www.esa.int/O..._Arctic_sea_ice

[4wd]

[Gray-Wolf]

Ha! Good one 4!

Saw this over on WUWT and guffawed just as much at the sight of it there! How can folk celebrate that the lower the summer min falls the more ice has to return over the dark of winter???

Unless we find a way of flushing out the river runoff and meltwater fresh prior to winter I'd say that the surface water was keen to freeze more than ever before after a record low???

Mean while we still see record low ice volume for the time of year? What do you think that tells us 4? I'll give you a clue, stretching less ice to fill the same Area??

[knocker]

Well...................