Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

[4wd]

I doubt there'll be a lot of waning at -50

[Hiya]

Keith isn't totally wrong to be fair. We know from our 'accurate' mock-up's of past climate that we cool faster than we warm up. I was watching something that I'd recorded a while ago and there is evidence that some glaciers that are currently melting, are known to have been replenished within a time-frame of approximately a decade. Now to me that says we're up one without a paddle IF we are in a period of much reduced solar input regardless of CO2. Don't ask me how it was worked out but they were professors in the field and as I've been told before, I must trust the scientists.

The evidence says that we are on that edge looking down, not up as far as the sun is concerned. AGW theory requires that the sun continues to be a constant or there abouts.

The sea temperatures may still be warm enough to keep the Arctic ice melting at a fair rate of knots for the next 5 decades... Then what? What if the sun wants to stay quiet for the next century?

Fair enough, it's all if's and but's. The original 2000's solar forecasts have been binned though. Projected solar forecasts from this solar peak have been much reduced to virtually nil for the next peak. I guess we'll have to wait and see as it will do as it pleases.

I do wish Keith would explain what he means when he posts bits from an article elsewhere on the net. We could all understand where he's coming from. How about it Keith?

I actually think that would be much much worse for humanity than if warming continued at the current rate, but it isn't given much thought generally.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi P.P.!

My current concerns about an 'abrupt warming' is based upon the past glacial events where temps just rocket out of deep glacial max's?

It appears that the planets albedo is plenty enough to offset the turnaround from negative forcing to positive forcing for quite a while? It is only when the extra energy, that a kinder orbital positioning brings with it, has reduced the ice to the point that an albedo flip occurs that the energy suddenly appears in the climate.

We have just passed such a point so how much 'hidden energy' have we suddenly got bouncing around our climate?

[Gray-Wolf]

https://earthdata.nasa.gov/data/near-real-time-data/rapid-response

Now that light is arriving back into the basin i thought I's post the link to the Modis images (near real time or Mosaic).

Am I seeing a broad band of disruption along the Alaskan north shore (like last year?) and , if so, will this lead to the opening of the southern sectors of the Beauforts Sea as early as last melt season?

Also, if you look at the Baffin end of the Parry channel (deep water NW Passage) am I seeing thin ice for the first 1/3 of the channel with an ice bridge before the thicker ice? Does it look like flow into Baffin has drifted ice out of the channel???

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.woksat.info/etcvb19/vb19-1151-f-grn-n.html

Pretty messed up from Pole to Fram now. really shows how thin the ice is.

I remember putting up a spring image (mid march or later) in the mid noughties showing a well broken pack only to be told by one of our regulars that it always looked like that (which it certainly never did esp in the late 90's) at winters end. I'm waiting to see if I get the same today!!!

[be cause]

glaD TO FIND THIS THREAD BACK .. one of the few that drew me to this site an exciting year of ice watching ahead if at this stage very thin and very cracked . So keep up the good work BFTV and GW and all serious contributors ... Thanks ..

[Methuselah]

The point i am trying to make that ice lose and ice gain runs in cycle"s it is nothing to do with GW (then you add the solar minimum into the equation that increases ice gains)

, .A powerful Arctic storm exaggerated the ice loss in the north pole last year,nice to see that the Arctic and Antarctic ice has returned to normal with excellent ice coverage on both continents.

It obviously changes over time, Keith. But change-over-time doesn't, of itself, imply a long-term cyclical nature...

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Be cause!

Yup! looks like an exciting melt season indeed? After 07' we all wondered how the year following could possibly beat it (it being a 'perfect storm' year) but this time we did not need any 'special weather' to achieve the record low we saw.

With record low ice volume at present I have to wonder how we can avoid dropping to a similar low this year?

I will be looking for extensive 'blue ice' as large meltwater lakes appear over the flat FY ice fields (and maybe glimpses of extensive algal blooms under the thin ice). I think that both these events will speed up melt out dates for the younger ice leaving a lot of open water under the sun from July onward.

I expect to see early melt out of the Greenland snow pack and a rapid reduction of the albedo around the lower levels of the Greenland Ice Sheet. I also expect to see another record outflow year from the Drain glaciers (remember the McKenzie river video of the floods sweeping away the digger off the bridge there?). I even suspect that we will see more high surface melt days through July/Aug.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi KeithL!

I think that you are getting close to a point that would demand you alter your thinking about the ice loss that we are seeing? As a point of reference what would you need to see within the yearly Arctic cycle to have you understand the changes as 'novel'?

[Gray-Wolf]

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php

A little heads up for Nevens new dedicated Forum. If you want to read the input of many of the best minds in the blogsphere (IMHO) across the topics concerning the Arctic then pop over and have a read.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Last spring was a little concerning when the ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas began to crumble in April http://rapidfire.sci...12101.terra.4km

This year it looks like it's happening in February http://rapidfire.sci...13053.terra.4km

Beaufort and Chukchi sea are both at the very top of the image, where it opens.

[Don]

Last spring was a little concerning when the ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas began to crumble in April http://rapidfire.sci...12101.terra.4km

This year it looks like it's happening in February http://rapidfire.sci...13053.terra.4km

Beaufort and Chukchi sea are both at the very top of the image, where it opens.

Oh dear. I'm really rather nervous about this year's melt it has to be said!

Edited February 23, 2013 by Don

[Derecho]

Oh dear. I'm really rather nervous about this year's melt it has to be said!

Indeed, rather depressingly I think arctic ice has been affected to the point where there is no return. Yes we do usually see arctic ice extent close to near normal by Spring but the lack of thickness and multi year accumulation means that even if we do get conditions favourable for a lack of melting even for the majority of a summer it could very quickly be undone in a short period when it is not.

Given the arctic is warming faster then anywhere else on the planet we really are up against it in avoiding a downward trend at the very least. Arctic ice is too sensitive even to the smallest changes that favour increased melting.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Our first 2 consecutive days fall in the 5 day mean extent in 2013. We're now 6 days without increasing the extent. For the 1 day extent, we're currently at 14,759,080km2, after hitting a peak of 14,864,740km2 on February 17th.

It's not unusual, at this time of year, to go over a week with losses before hitting a growth spurt and reaching new high values.

[Cleeve Hill]

Do you guys think the reduced level of sea ice in the North Atlantic sector (Svalbard & Barents Sea) is due to the northern blocking we have seen regularly this winter which can bring southerly or westerly winds depending on locations.

Also do you think the lack of sea ice has contributed to the high latitude blocking this winter, which could become a regular occurrence in future years and colder than average winters in N.W Europe?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Do you guys think the reduced level of sea ice in the North Atlantic sector (Svalbard & Barents Sea) is due to the northern blocking we have seen regularly this winter which can bring southerly or westerly winds depending on locations.

Also do you think the lack of sea ice has contributed to the high latitude blocking this winter, which could become a regular occurrence in future years and colder than average winters in N.W Europe?

It's hard to say exactly why the sea ice around the Barents sea has fared so poorly this winter. The winds have been quite favourable for sending ice south

Wind Vector Anomaly

.......................2013 .................................................... 2012 .................................................. 2009

The temperatures are well below that of last year, and similar to 2009, which had a much higher coverage

.................... 2013 ...................................................... 2012 .................................................. 2009

With the Svalbard sea ice, we've seen less northerlies here than usual, but not exceptionally less.

So it isn't air temperatures, and it isn't the winds. Perhaps, as some have suggested, the Gulf Stream is extending further north, and in inflow of water around Svalbard is increasing. Something is definitely holding the ice back more this year than would be expected, I'd say the answer lies more in the ocean than the atmosphere

As for the blocking, well several studies have linked colder Eurasian winters to reduced sea ice, as well as a higher amplitude jet stream which favours blocking events. These things have also been linked with reduced solar activity, so it's likely that the increase in blocking is down, at least in part, to a mixture of reduced sea ice and a quiet sun.

[quest4peace]

That line of above average ssts look likely culprits. Could that in fact be an arm of the gulf stream as it seems to look like a current of warmth to me ?

Edited February 24, 2013 by quest4peace

[be cause]

That line of above average ssts look likely culprits. Could that in fact be an arm of the gulf stream as it seems to look like a current of warmth to me ?

Hi, Q4P .. looks to me more like the anomaly caused by missing sea ice .. air over open ocean being much warmer than over ice . This is the prime cause of the dramatic temperature anomalies in the arctic since the great melt began .

Edited February 24, 2013 by be cause

[Gray-Wolf]

I have wondered about all of this 'extension' of the N.A.D.

It seems common sense to me that if you warm the water the current runs through it'll be able to conserve heat and so run further?

i'm sure ice free conditions do show a warm anom where ice once was but the areas in question have seen many recent winters under low ice conditions ( upping the average temps?) so maybe the current can also run longer?

I still think we'll find that the 'Laptev Bite' is evidence of late summer N.A.D. extension?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Large increase in the IJIS extent yesterday, taking back above 14 million, to 14,116,719km2. This is higher than the 2011, 2007, 2006 and the 2005 annual maxima.

Cryosphere today has gone gone the opposite direction, with a small drop to take the global sea ice area back below average.

[quest4peace]

I have wondered about all of this 'extension' of the N.A.D.

It seems common sense to me that if you warm the water the current runs through it'll be able to conserve heat and so run further?

i'm sure ice free conditions do show a warm anom where ice once was but the areas in question have seen many recent winters under low ice conditions ( upping the average temps?) so maybe the current can also run longer?

I still think we'll find that the 'Laptev Bite' is evidence of late summer N.A.D. extension?

So are you kind of thinking what i'm thinking GW? The normal N.A.D position isnt amazingly far south of where the line is so could it be that an off shoot is a bit further North?

Large increase in the IJIS extent yesterday, taking back above 14 million, to 14,116,719km2. This is higher than the 2011, 2007, 2006 and the 2005 annual maxima.

Cor blimey see sawing around at the moment be interesting to see where it lands

Cryosphere today has gone gone the opposite direction, with a small drop to take the global sea ice area back below average.

See sawing around at the moment then B.F.T.V where will it land i wonder?

Hi, Q4P .. looks to me more like the anomaly caused by missing sea ice .. air over open ocean being much warmer than over ice . This is the prime cause of the dramatic temperature anomalies in the arctic since the great melt began .

Hi Be cause I know the dynamics of missing ice but this line of anomolies just seem different especially if you trace the line backwards Gray .Wolf has mentioned studies in the past, that indicate a possible shift and penetration to more northerly lattitudes, and the sea surface temps have been 8-10.c above average all winter witout hardly budging

B.F.T.V and Gray wolf have you any opinions on this?

Edited February 25, 2013 by quest4peace

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.woksat.in...1408-b-arc.html

Full moon tide's done a number in Beaufort then?

I wonder just how early we'll see open water there this year?

http://www.woksat.info/etcvb26/vb26-1217-i-grn-n.html

I tend to think that this disruption and the mess over on Fram side of things (above) does not bode well for the upcoming season?

Edited February 26, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

http://www.woksat.in...1408-b-arc.html

Full moon tide's done a number in Beaufort then?

I wonder just how early we'll see open water there this year?

http://www.woksat.in...17-i-grn-n.html

I tend to think that this disruption and the mess over on Fram side of things (above) does not bode well for the upcoming season?

The ice is looking in a poor state. It also looks as though the +ve dipole pattern has returned, which may encourage extent growth early in the Spring.

Anywho, despite those things, the NSIDC extent has had another huge gain yesterday, taking us past the 2005 maximum.

In before WUWT

[be cause]

well it looks like the arctic ocean has turned into a giant iced over puddle ..but ice must crack ! Brilliant pics ,Grey Wolf !.. and I agree the ice has never been more at risk in my lifetime but surely this is the most exciting thing happening in or to the global climate in our generation ? If ice has to melt so that giant algal blooms can harvest CO2 AND THIS IS A FAILSAFE to maintain a global balance (for example), I for one am glad to be an interested observer of the consequences at a time of such available observations and thoughts as are shared on this thread

ps .. I did not knowingly capitalize 'and this is a failsafe' ..!!!

Edited February 26, 2013 by be cause

[be cause]

and I suppose this thread's dead when BFTV stops reporting ice growth .. glad to see your comments and update and re WUWT (and global warmists).. when you have an agenda the 'truth' can be made out of anything ..

Edited February 26, 2013 by be cause