Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

[Gray-Wolf]

The cracking that occurred when ice was normal thickness tended to occur in similar areas at similar times of year (the folk who lived in the areas would exploit such predictable events to hunt). The shattering we see today looks more akin to mid season pack breakup once the ice has thinned enough to allow such behaviour.

[knocker]

Arctic climate warming and sea ice declines lead to increased storm surge activity

Abstract

[1] [1] The combined effects of climate warming (i.e., increased storminess, reduced sea ice extent, and rising sea levels) make low-lying Arctic coastal regions particularly susceptible to storm surges. The Mackenzie Delta, a biologically significant and resource-rich region in northwestern Canada, is particularly vulnerable to flooding by storm surges. To properly manage the consequences of climate warming for Arctic residents, infrastructure, and ecosystems, a better understanding of the influence of climate change on storm surge activity is required. Here we use particle size analysis of lake sediment records to show that the occurrence and magnitude of storm surges in the outer Mackenzie Delta are significantly related to temperature and that the frequency and intensity of storm surges is increasing. Our results demonstrate the effects of changing climate on storm surge activity and provide a cautionary example of the threat of inundation to low-lying Arctic coastal environments under future climate warming scenarios.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50191/abstract

[knocker]

The latest value : 14,053,438 km² (March 21, 2013)

[knocker]

The latest value : 14,041,563 km² (March 22, 2013)

http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

[Gray-Wolf]

Surely we can call max now???

[stewfox]

Surely we can call max now???

Will cut the tape shortly.

Whats the volumes been like this winter ?

[be cause]

now the excitement really begins .. will there even be an ice sheet in 6 months ? .. This has been my first season as an on line observer so thanks for all the leads and lessons of the last 6 months .. it hasn't been dull !

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi stew!

apart frlom Feb volumes have been horrid! Seeing as the bulk that feb saw put on is first month ice come melt then it'll not really fare too well? (brine packed and thin)

Again I have to ask folk to look at the massive fracture event which had ruptured most all of the Arctic ice (including the mutiyear pyramid off Greenland) and how this has to impact upon melt season. The 'leads' that froze over post rupture will not last long come melt meaning a shattered pack with a vastly increased surface area to mass (remember 'defrosting your old freezer? you'd smash the ice so it would melt faster?)

It will be a season to study. it may well drop ice so low by July as to raise the spectre of a sun million end to the season (unthinkable eh???)

Soon be a new thread (once min is called) and maybe a poll (if BFTV's studies/health allow?)

[knocker]

Will cut the tape shortly.

Whats the volumes been like this winter ?

Can't give you an update.

February 13, 2013

New research using combined records of ice measurements from NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat), the European Space Agency's CryoSat-2 satellite, airborne surveys and ocean-based sensors shows Arctic sea ice volume declined 36 percent in the autumn and nine percent in the winter over the last decade.

The work builds on previous studies using submarine and NASA satellite data, confirms computer model estimates that showed ice volume decreases over the last decade, and builds a foundation for a multi-decadal record of sea ice volume changes.

In a report published online recently in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, a large international collaboration of scientists outlined their work to calculate Arctic sea ice volume. The satellite measurements were verified using data from NASA's Operation IceBridge, ocean-based sensors and a European airborne science expedition. This was compared with the earlier sea ice volume data record from NASA's ICESat, which reached the end of its lifespan in 2009.

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-057

[knocker]

Published on Mar 22, 2013

A series of intense storms in the Arctic has caused fracturing of the sea ice around the Beaufort Sea along the northern coasts of Alaska and Canada. High-resolution imagery from the Suomi NPP satellite shows the evolution of the cracks forming in the ice, called leads, from February 17 — March 18 2013. The general circulation of the area is seen moving the ice westward along the Alaskan coast

“Intense storms†are not an unheard of thing in the arctic. What’s new is that the ice is so fragile that normal storm activity is breaking it up much early than has been seen in the past.

http://climatecrocks.com/2013/03/23/arctic-ice-update-noaa-video-confirms-early-breakup/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[knocker]

It's still dithering.

The latest value : 14,055,938 km² (March 23, 2013)

http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

[BornFromTheVoid]

Time to call the maximum methinks

.......................................Maximum .................. Current

NSIDC.........................15,169,690km2 ....... 14,885,520km2

IJIS..............................14,276,563km2 ....... 14,055,938km2

Cryosphere Today..... 13,799,198km2 ....... 13,432,652km2

[songster]

Yay, time for a new thread! (Or we could just replay last year's since I don't anyone's opinions have shifted :-p )

[Gray-Wolf]

Oh don't be like that Songy ole chap!

I'd love to have to change my tune (and I'm equally sure that the other 'concerned parties' would too?) and report on a Summer with high ice retention and low melt with Greenland keeping snow cover (and avoiding the forecast albedo plunge?).

We can all 'predict' what we will see but only witnessing what occurs will confirm things? Hopefully the stirling work on stats and data will be a similar quality to which we have become accustomed and the thread will attract another rash of 'Nubes' over the season to get a better idea of what is occuring up there?

That said I'm still holding my breath to see if last years mega melt will merely prove to be another nasty forcing aiding losses?

It is the earliest predicted year for us to drop below 1 million sq km at seasons end (2016 + or - 3years) so we will see how than pans out too?

[BornFromTheVoid]

The NSIDC have called the maximum. Note that they use the 5 day average for their calculations...

On March 15, 2013 Arctic sea ice likely reached its maximum extent for the year, at 15.13 million square kilometers (5.84 million square miles). The maximum extent was 733,000 square kilometers (283,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average of 15.86 million square kilometers (6.12 million square miles). The maximum occurred five days later than the 1979 to 2000 average date of March 10. The date of the maximum has varied considerably over the years, with the earliest maximum in the satellite record occurring as early as February 24 in 1996 and as late as April 2 in 2010.

http://nsidc.org/arc...extent-reached/

[stewfox]

The NSIDC have called the maximum. Note that they use the 5 day average for their calculations...

http://nsidc.org/arc...extent-reached/

New thread and a new poll re the predicted minimum ??.

I am going away to do a lot of research to make a informed well reasoned sound estimation.

If that doesnt work I'll stick to reading the tea leaves for guidence

[stewfox]

Surprised to see we are still above 14m. Could it be because large parts of the NH are still in a ice box ?

http://www.ijis.iarc...ce_Extent_L.png

April 1 NH in ice Box.docx

Edited March 29, 2013 by stewfox

[thetonynator]

Quick question for anyone who might know this: What causes the ice to the south of Hudson Bay to be thicker than the north? I would have though that it would be the other way around but this gif shows differently!

Edited March 31, 2013 by thetonynator

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Time for the meltdown to begin now!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Quick question for anyone who might know this: What causes the ice to the south of Hudson Bay to be thicker than the north? I would have though that it would be the other way around but this gif shows differently!

Hello.

There's mainly northerly across Hudson Bay. This causes the ice to drift away from the north coast, with thinner, newer ice forming to take its place. The northerlies also causes ice to pile up closer to the south, as well as giving it more time to thicken up as it's not being blow away to another location.

[thetonynator]

Hello.

There's mainly northerly across Hudson Bay. This causes the ice to drift away from the north coast, with thinner, newer ice forming to take its place. The northerlies also causes ice to pile up closer to the south, as well as giving it more time to thicken up as it's not being blow away to another location.

Ah right thanks, that makes sense, don't know why I didn't think of that!

[pottyprof]

New thread for the melt season is here.....

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76273-arctic-ice-discussion-2013-melt-season/

Will leave this open for a few days for conclusions etc.

[knocker]

NSIDC Full Analysis.

Spring has Sprung.

Arctic sea ice has passed its annual maximum extent and is beginning its seasonal decline through the spring and summer. While total extent was not at record low, it remained well below average through March. Ice fracturing continued north of Alaska, and the Arctic Oscillation was in a strongly negative phase during the second half of the month, with unusually high sea level pressure over almost all of the Arctic Ocean. Levels of multiyear ice remain extremely low. The ice is thinner, and satellite data suggests that first-year ice may now cover the North Pole area for the first time since winter 2008

http://nsidc.org/arc...-in-the-arctic/

Edited April 3, 2013 by knocker

[stewfox]

NSIDC Full Analysis.

Spring has Sprung.

Arctic sea ice has passed its annual maximum extent and is beginning its seasonal decline through the spring and summer. While total extent was not at record low, it remained well below average through March. Ice fracturing continued north of Alaska, and the Arctic Oscillation was in a strongly negative phase during the second half of the month, with unusually high sea level pressure over almost all of the Arctic Ocean. Levels of multiyear ice remain extremely low. The ice is thinner, and satellite data suggests that first-year ice may now cover the North Pole area for the first time since winter 2008

http://nsidc.org/arc...-in-the-arctic/

A classic example of shock and aw. The average was slap bang in the middle of the last 30 years.

Hell IJIS seems to be levelling off maybe a min 14m this year ? A million above 2007 so far (another 'spin')

http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

Edited April 3, 2013 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

A classic example of shock and aw. The average was slap bang in the middle of the last 30 years.

Hell IJIS seems to be levelling off maybe a min 14m this year ? A million above 2007 so far (another 'spin')

http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm

"Shock and aw"? "Slap bang in the middle of the last 30 years"?

Where are you seeing this stuff, because I can't see where either of those statements apply?

Edited April 3, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid