Major Hurricane Paul

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Storm Paul has formed in the East Pacific, several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Paul has sustained winds of 35kts, but I think Paul could well be poised to strengthen quickly, as strong banding is already evident along with deep, centralised convection. Shear is low and waters are warm, so Paul could become a hurricane.

[Somerset Squall]

Paul has intensified slowly to 45kts. Moderate shear is affecting Paul at present, slowing intensification. Nevertheless, Paul still has strong banding and some deep, albeit slightly misplaced, convection. Paul is turning towards the north currently as ridging builds to the east of the storm. The track brings Paul close to Baja California. Any eastward shift in track may mean Paul makes landfall. Paul should strengthen tomorrow as shear begins to ease.

[Somerset Squall]

Shear has eased and Paul has become a hurricane overnight with sustained winds now estimated to be 65kts. Paul has some extremely deep convection over the centre with an eye emerging from the central dense overcast. Further intensification is expected in the next 24hrs before Paul's northward motion takes it over colder waters and increased shear, inducing weakening. However, Paul is still expected to bring tropical storm conditions as it closes in on the west coast of Baja California, and therefore a tropical storm watch has been issued by NHC.

[Somerset Squall]

Paul continues to strengthen. Intensity is now 80kts. Paul has about another 12hrs to strengthen before shear increases and sea temps decrease further. The eye is more persistant in satellite imagery now, and Paul is forecast to become a cat 2 before weakening begins.

[Somerset Squall]

Paul has rapidly strengthened and has become a cat 3 major hurricane with sustained winds now at 105kts. Paul has a large, cloud free eye encircled by a solid central dense overcast. However, the major hurricane is running out of warm water, and shear is expected to increase tomorrow. Therefore, Paul may be at it's peak. The greater than expected intensification means that Paul could still be a hurricane as it brushes Baja California, so the tropical storm warning has been raised to a hurricane warning.

[Somerset Squall]

Paul is closing in on Baja California, fast. The hurricane has weakened due to increased shea and passage over cooler sea temps, but is still expected to be a hurricane at landfall, which is expected to occur in as little as 6hrs time (Paul has really accelerated over the last 12hrs). Paul isn't quite as intense as he was, but he is still packing winds of 90kts. Likely to be a fair bit of damage and flooding from this one.

[Somerset Squall]

[Coast]

Looks like it's going to bounce off Baja and then out to sea:

[Cirrusly Snowy]

Finally a hurricane named after me,

[Methuselah]

Finally a hurricane named after me,

Be thankful your name's not Richard, then...

[Somerset Squall]

Interaction with land and high shear have dissipated Paul as it moved up the spine of Baja California. Paul made landfall in a sparsely populated area so damage reports are minimal.