Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

our local metro has said that the next few days it is going to be reasonably warm until around the beginning of November, then the temp will plum-it and there will be thick snow from the start of dec to the end of jan.

[Floatylight]

Hi all,

Firstly great thread,i really enjoy reading it everyday.

I would just like to say mother nature decides on our weather,not a specific day and time for the season to start or end.

I have witnessed even in my years the weather doing the most strange unseasonal things.

I realise along with others winter doesnt offically start yet, but if there are a few signs that the weather might turn wintry before 'winter' actually starts is a bit silly really to not talk about it till mid nov imo.

I have seen snow in easter weekends and been sunburnt on an easter weekend,last october i was having a bar b in a mini heatwave in the garden.

The seasons can start early and finish late or vice versa.

I look at nature for the start of a season not a specific date.

I just see alot of posts saying not to talk about about oct in a winter thread etc etc.

Maybe re name wintery weather would satisfy some folk?

Anyway keep up the good posts all ,float x

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

http://forum.netweat...-bonfire-night/

http://forum.netweat...-and-halloween/

Cheers Coast

[keithlucky]

A guy called Richard Cabtree released his winter forecast ,in November i love the prediction of heavy snow on November the 16th ,i have what he"s drinking http://www.cloudyski...2301a26f68d86cd

[A Winter's Tale]

Thanks for that I knew it was drier than normal up there at some point during winter

It was dry for during the middle of January and the end of January and start of February although western areas at times were still wet. I think the winter ended quite wet but I'm not entirely sure.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

I vaguely remember wet snow falling at Cleadon (Tyne and Wear) at a Bonfire Night party on the evening of the 5th November 1991.

http://www.wetterzen...00119911105.gif

Snow wasn't very widespread on that day though, and I can't locate any instances of widespread snowfall on the 5th November in the twentieth century.

I'll be in Northumberland this year which isn't too far away from Tyne and Wear so who knows with all this talk of a Notherly cold blast I may get lucky....

.... well I can dream! lol

[Summer Sun]

Snow and cold fans click this link -

[weatherguy]

Ah, it's good to be back Would very much appreciate a repeat of the 2010/11 winter please!

And just to add a bit of content...good to see lots of forecasts going for the northerly blocking signal (looking at the trends, not the day-day swings I might add) which certainly increases our chance of having a severe cold spell. Too early to tell what the strat might be up to yet though.

Just to have an interesting discussion though, which would you lot prefer; "stick" with a less risky and still potentially brutal greenland high, or "twist" with a more risky but potentially more rewarding Scandi high delivering the beast from the east? For me, I'd stick with the Greenland high, simply because it reached -16C here a couple of winters ago from that scenario...That said, I've never experienced a "proper" easterly however, apart from the Feb 09 event

Edited October 17, 2012 by weatherguy

[AutumnMists]

I'm going away from 29th december to 6th january, let's hope I don't get caught up in anything

Something tells me the heaviest and most widespread snow will arrive January/February this Winter ...

Also, perhaps a small brief snap end of November/start of December with some local average falls lasting a few days

That's what I want anyway, not too sure if it will happen

Edited October 17, 2012 by hedgehog4

[January Snowstorm]

The 12z gfs run is looking stunning for middle of next week, synoptically.

Have we ever in recent times seen such a Greeny high in October!!

[Eskimo]

The 12z gfs run is looking stunning for middle of next week, synoptically.

Have we ever in recent times seen such a Greeny high in October!!

I'm hoping this blocking doesn't burn itself out too early...if that is even possible.

[weatherguy]

I'm hoping this blocking doesn't burn itself out too early...if that is even possible.

If it prevents the PV from setting up camp over Newfoundland/Greenland, I'm a happy man

[Eskimo]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2039418/UK-weather-Snow-forecast-parts-Britain-early-October.html

Whenever I need cheering up, this so called forecast from last year never fails to make me smile.

[snowy weather]

The 12z gfs run is looking stunning for middle of next week, synoptically.

Have we ever in recent times seen such a Greeny high in October!!

What would this mean for us?

[Summer Sun]

I am well prepare for a snowy winter this year unlike the end of 2010 when I like many others got caught out!

I have extra bags of Grit this year so I don't run out

3 snow shovels

And I also have a leaf blower which when put into the blowing mode will make a very handy snow clearance machine and save on the back breaking job of using the snow shovel if it gets deep

Edited October 17, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

What would this mean for us?

It would turn colder for sure but the chances of snow at low levels remain slim for now the Scottish mountains would do well! November onwards is usually when we begin to see snow at low levels in England, it could happen in October don't get me wrong its just a case of if it turned cold enough

[Nights King]

I am well prepare for a snowy winter this year unlike the end of 2010 when I like many others got caught out!

I have extra bags of Grit this year so I don't run out

3 snow shovels

And I also have a leaf blower which when put into the blowing mode will make a very handy snow clearance machine and save on the back breaking job of using the snow shovel if it gets deep

Leaf blowers are great fun but only really any good against dry snow, we use it to clear snow at work. As for salt/grit I try not to use it at all if possible as it has destroyed the concrete on drive and my steps over the last few years and so much more abuse and my steps may crumble away entirely

3 shovels?! are you expecting to break the other two...?

[A Winter's Tale]

Next week certainly looks interesting. From a mini indian summer in the south to possibly a taste of winter in the north.

Quite an interesting gradient in upper air temperatures too! -10C uppers in Shetland to 6C uppers in the south of England.

The netweather update regarding possibility of northern blocking in December and January is interesting, should make a fascinating November in watching how things develop.

[Summer Sun]

Leaf blowers are great fun but only really any good against dry snow, we use it to clear snow at work. As for salt/grit I try not to use it at all if possible as it has destroyed the concrete on drive and my steps over the last few years and so much more abuse and my steps may crumble away entirely

3 shovels?! are you expecting to break the other two...?

In 2010 the handles broke on 2 so I'm taking no chances everywhere ran out of them in 2010

[AutumnMists]

Well the last time we did have a cold snap in October was 2008 (I think it was around 27th-31st) ... a decent winter followed that

Also October 2010 also had a very very brief coldish spell around mid month if I can recall although this was nothing more than a couple of overnight frosts and fog, with the odd nights snow in the Highlands.

2008/2009 was a nice little Winter though, well, for half of us it was ... Northern parts of England and Scotland had a brief cold spell at the start of November, here we got 10cm that lasted 4 days. Then January had around 3 simple cold snaps mostly in the first 20 days of the month with around 5cm for each, then of course we had February which we got around 20-25cm, lasted for two weeks

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Snow and cold fans click this link -

Now that is what I like to read, really cannot wait to see how things unfold this winter - epic winter, yes please :-)

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Hi all

Today I went on the weather outlook charts and I was looking at snow depths and they showed some snow for late next week for most of the uk and I was wondering how reliable is that because them bbc further outlook are showing mild weather.

Regards

Hi Snowey weather. Regarding those snow depth charts you are referring to. They are relieble up to a point, usually within 48hr as they are experimental. Widespread snow for most of the UK in October is extremely rare, but possible if the conditions are right. The upper temperatures next week don't support snow unless you are on top of a Scotish mountain. My advice would be to use these during the winter months when conditions should be more favourable, but remember they are experimental.

Edited October 17, 2012 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I don't know whos worse, the Daily mail or AOL for these type of news stories. I must admit though I do like the sound of it though

http://travel.aol.co.uk/2012/10/17/winter-to-be-colder-than-ever-white-christmas/?icid=maing-grid7%7Cuk%7Cdl10%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D132653

[feb1991blizzard]

Some good output both on Med range and long range models the last few days, however, here is an example of what the winter could be like if it all goes belly up, makes 1989 look good.

http://www.meteociel...0&carte=1&run=0

Went all the way up until nearly end jan, not one decent wavelength pattern.

Edited October 17, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[bobbydog]

I am well prepare for a snowy winter this year unlike the end of 2010 when I like many others got caught out!

I have extra bags of Grit this year so I don't run out

3 snow shovels

And I also have a leaf blower which when put into the blowing mode will make a very handy snow clearance machine and save on the back breaking job of using the snow shovel if it gets deep

grit? you're just helping those evil, yellow, snow destroying monsters!

Edited October 17, 2012 by bobbydog