Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[Methuselah]

Here's a new thread, to be going on with. But, please, try and treat others with the same degree of respect that you yourselves would hope to receive??

[suxer]

First easterly of the season emerging???

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20121014/06/384/h850t850eu.png

[johnholmes]

I am totally convinced that one of the ways forward is to use the Stratosphere data ALONG with all other data to TRY and see a way through the fog of conflicting evidence as to what the weather, in overall type, may do 1-3 months down the line.

That applies to any season. I also find it very encouraging that UK Met has a number of its immensely talented graduate intakes so keen to take up this latest area.

Like any weather predictions it will have its highly trumpeted failings but I also am convinced that taking all the factors into account will gradually, like any forecasting, improve over the years. Nothing in meteorology can be taken in isolation, everything must be included and that is the problem, there are so many variables, even in day to day forecasting let alone seasonal that is immensely difficult. To those who are trying, and especially to some of those on this forum, whether its acceptable meteorology or a section not yet accepted, I am thinking especially of RJS here, please keep at it. Only by trying different avenues will science move forward. Ignore those that knock as it is incredibly easy to make negative comments but so much more difficult to make constructive criticism.

Hopefully this thread will mirror this request for respect to one another and all of us attempting to make CONSTRUCTIVE not DESTRUCTIVE/negative comments please?

Edited October 14, 2012 by johnholmes

[Gavin Hannah]

First easterly of the season emerging???

http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png

Nope. Dont think it is. And at that far out, it will be gone next run.

Part 4 already!

I think alot of the excitement is down to the fact that no one knows if we are in a new period of colder than avg winters (More frequently) or not. I think after the period from the late 80's through to the early 2000's winter became a bit boring. It was more a case of.. "Will we get snow this winter?". Now it's more like ... "How much snow and how cold will it get?"

Edited October 14, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[Dorsetbred]

I am totally convinced that one of the ways forward is to use the Stratosphere data ALONG with all other data to TRY and see a way through the fog of conflicting evidence as to what the weather, in overall type, may do 1-3 months down the line.

That applies to any season. I also find it very encouraging that UK Met has a number of its immensely talented graduate intakes so keen to take up this latest area.

Like any weather predictions it will have its highly trumpeted failings but I also am convinced that taking all the factors into account will gradually, like any forecasting, improve over the years. Nothing in meteorology can be taken in isolation, everything must be included and that is the problem, there are so many variables, even in day to day forecasting let alone seasonal that is immensely difficult. To those who are trying, and especially to some of those on this forum, whether its acceptable meteorology or a section not yet accepted, I am thinking especially of RJS here, please keep at it. Only by trying different avenues will science move forward.

It's amazing we know so much about the ground below us, and historical events that have happened over 5 millennium We are learning so much about other planets, and yet our one big challenge of the weather around this earth provides us with so much possible confrontation.

As you say once piece of the puzzle alone wont solve this, it will be a combination of data, from different sources and ideas that might springboard us forward to the next level of understanding. Clearly in the meantime it's there to challenge us all.

[Nights King]

1. Expectations.... I will become depressed and disapointed when a 'guaranteed' snow event less than 24 hours away with orange weather warning in place by the met office vanishes hours before the event!
   
2. Hopes... We get a winter that surpasses even the best of the previous 5 years.
   
3. Wishes... We get a massive channel low that stalls accross the west country and south giving us an event that breaks exmoors previous record snowfall for a day.
   

[bobbydog]

as i have said before, i'm not worried about our weather at the moment, it's autumn. a mix of cold, wet, windy and mild is what i expect for the next couple of weeks or so. as JH said we have to look at the bigger picture. things like this FI chart are what we want to see happening-

a nice wintry blast for most of northern europe! that's where we need it, or the 'beast from the east' will have no teeth!

[AWD]

In any case, I'm not one looking for a 1947 etc, I know that the chances of getting a winter like that in my part of the world are so small that its not even worth hoping for.

I will just be happy with a decent snowfall event that lasts a couple of days, something like Jan 2010. I think there is every chance of a snowfall event like that this winter too.

I'm more than happy with the current weather now and what's forecast. Something for everyone, cool nights, rain and winds and something milder possible later.

All I'm looking for now is too see increasing cold pools building over parts of Europe to help cool the continent down. GFS 06z actually offers that, although whether it will verify is another matter.

I can't read teleconnective signals so I'm not going to pretend I have an idea on what this winter could throw at us, but with limited long range forecasts and models offering some hope of colder conditions, plus some positive comments from the experts on here, I'm looking forward to this winter, and have a realistic view & expectation on what to hope for.

There is every chance as things stand for a winter better than the last one, with a disrupted vortex increasing the chance of colder periods, and at this stage, that's all I want.

[A Winter's Tale]

Anyways, my thoughts on the winter right now is that December will start off mild, wet and windy but perhaps a few short cold spells thanks to high pressure and nwly interludes. Trend for cooler weather around Christmas, an average/cool January/early February with some short cold shots, an early Spring arrives later in February. No one really knows at the stage so my thoughts will be comletely different in a week's time. I do feel confident at this moment in time that winter could be a slow starter, possibly a zonal set up but what happens during November is in my opinion crucial to the sort of start we could have to the winter, and talking about January and February during the 1st week of December is like saying what will November and December be like now - i.e most of us have little vaild clue to what will happen as events that are yet to happen during the coming weeks (beyond the edge of FI on the models) will be pivotal in shaping the start of the period, so what factors that are in place now aren't the be it and end all regarding winter as many random occurences that are yet to be happen and are often unprecedented will have a say - sometimes defying the logic of experts of experts.

So what will be will be, and I'm 99% sure that at least somewhere in the British Isles will see snow this winter but only the course of time between December 1st and Febraury 28th will determin how much we deviate above the "at least it will snow somewhere". All to play for me thinks, it could be a 1998/1999 or 1962/1963, it may only snow at a deer farm near Altnaharra at 4.56am in the middle of January or there could be bucket loads of the white stuff, but I'm prepared to accept what winter throws at us, and no matter how cold or mild a winter is, as far as I'm concerned the period December, Jannuary and February is always winter and no matter how bleak an outlook it is for snow to fall in Penzance, "winter is over" sayings should never be neccesary.

But during the in the days and weeks between now and November 30th, I and many others will be following posts by GP, chionomaniac and many others with interest and will enjoy the autumnal weather as we head toward winter, hopefully some frosts and early wintry precipitation to give us an appetite for the winter, and the next 12 hrs are an example of the signs of our slide to winter with some rural frosts and wintryness on the hills.

[weather is fun]

piers corbyn mention in nov 2010 we would have worst winter in 100yrs now joe laminate floori is saying worst winter in 50yrs so i guess we wont be seeing another dec 2010 if all he is forecasting is worst in 50yrs sounds all very far fetched to me to be honest. Heres hoping for a mild xmas so at least everyone can see freinds and family then a few cold shots jan and feb will do me just fine. Certainley dont fancy a 1947 0r 63 winter at all.

[Methuselah]

Ah, easily done SS

I did try to make it as obscure as possible!

[feno13]

piers corbyn mention in nov 2010 we would have worst winter in 100yrs now joe laminate floori is saying worst winter in 50yrs so i guess we wont be seeing another dec 2010 if all he is forecasting is worst in 50yrs sounds all very far fetched to me to be honest. Heres hoping for a mild xmas so at least everyone can see freinds and family then a few cold shots jan and feb will do me just fine. Certainley dont fancy a 1947 0r 63 winter at all.

I am sure it was the coldest winter in a 100 years,not the worst.

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Has laminate floori said anything on this winter yet?

[AWD]

Has laminate floori said anything on this winter yet?

Plenty. That's the bloke calling for "one heck of a cold winter" for the UK/NW Europe

[Eugene]

I just hope we get a winter that doesn't start early and ends in mid Jan but rather starts late December around Christmas and lasts until mid March.

Edited October 14, 2012 by Eugene

[snowstorm445]

Hopes? Expectations? I suppose I would like to see a much more seasonal winter this year, with a mix of cold and warmth, but with temperatures coming in slightly below average. I wouldn't mind mild weather so long as its dry, but as little wind as possible (there's bound to be some, especially at the start).

This isn't a forecast, just what I would like to see:

December:

A mixed start with fairly seasonal temperatures up until about the 10th, then a period of milder weather until the 20th, followed by a cold spell, gradually getting worse in the run up to the New Year. Rainfall to be about average, not too many windstorms (last year was dreadful), and temperatures to come in slightly below average. Wouldn't mind a White Christmas as well but not desperately cold, and not too much to cause disruption to travel.

January:

The cold weather from the end of December continuing up until around the 5th, then a fairly mild regime dominating, although high pressure nearby hopefully keeping us dry for the most part. This could continue up until around the 15th-20th when a more mixed, windier, wetter and slightly cooler regime sets in. Around the 25th, and Scandinavian High could arrive, a bit further to the west than last year, setting the stage for a cold end to the month. Overall, a fairly dry month, with temperatures around average, maybe slightly above.

February:

The month could start very cold, with easterly winds running right across the UK and Ireland. A low pressure system across the France could mean snow for much of the south, with drier but not completely so conditions further north. Winds from a north-easterly direction bringing a strong wind chill to boot. Gradually, benign conditions could return from the 15th onwards, with mild weather setting itself up for the end of the month. Overall, another dry month, but much colder than January.

In summary, a fairly mixed bag with colder conditions towards the end, and much more widespread than last year. If it is even colder than this, fair enough, but not desperately cold, no 1963 or 2010 situations. Certainly not hoping for the complete flop that was last winter either.

Again, this is not a forecast, but a hopecast.

[andymusic]

I am sure it was the coldest winter in a 100 years,not the worst.

not to pick hairs but it was the coldest december not winter in 2010 and laminate floori is calling for a "brutal winter" for 2012/13 - so an overall brutal winter to come - we shall see!!

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Plenty. That's the bloke calling for "one heck of a cold winter" for the UK/NW Europe

I think he forecasts with his gut

[snowy weather]

Hey all

The mood on this thread seems down. Remember it is only October and ANYTHING can happen no matter what the signs or the charts say. I'm not a weather expert but that's my take on it. If the charts were that accurate then we would be very good at predicting weather but that is not the case. The weather in uk is very unpredictable.

Had my first frost today. It was nice waking up to white, makes a change from Last year which was very bad for frosts.

[AWD]

I think he forecasts with his gut

He does back up his comments with facts & thoughts. Think he uses SST's & Solar output in his forecasts, nothing i know a lot about.

I'm no fan, but he does give reasoning behind his forecasts.

Only time will tell I guess.

[snowstorm445]

piers corbyn mention in nov 2010 we would have worst winter in 100yrs now joe laminate floori is saying worst winter in 50yrs so i guess we wont be seeing another dec 2010 if all he is forecasting is worst in 50yrs sounds all very far fetched to me to be honest. Heres hoping for a mild xmas so at least everyone can see freinds and family then a few cold shots jan and feb will do me just fine. Certainley dont fancy a 1947 0r 63 winter at all.

You sound awfully familiar.

He can exaggerate, but his basic gist is that it will be colder than last year. Its very unlikely that a '63 winter will show up, but it could well be colder than average. IIRC he has a fairly good record with regards winter forecasting. He forecasted a more benign winter last year, with the main cold in Europe located over the Balkans, which was the case later in in winter.

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

My hopes

Tomorrow will be hi of 8 and will go down by 1 each day till it reaches -5.

this will differ from -7 to -1 throughout the winter month decenber,

by Christmas there will 3 feet of snow on the ground and I shall take other the world.

ha ha ha

Edited October 14, 2012 by Excitable_Weatherwatcher

[johnholmes]

Rather than clutter up the 2012/13 winter expectation thread with stuff from 2009 and 2010 I will drop this in as a pdf. Folk can then either ignore it or read it, their choice.

In pdf format then

data for winter 2010-compare 2009 etc-14 oct 12.pdf

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10th Jan 2010, was probably the biggest snow failure ever? -10 uppers and all I had was rain, although on monday 11th it turned back to snow, but only a dusting

Edited October 14, 2012 by ihatetherain

[roys]

well they have announced a 9 percent rise on gas and electric you can bet your bottom dolor that we will have a freezing cold winter