Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[cheeky_monkey]

Do you think there is too much emphasis on the strat and other teleconnections ?

Strat watching has become the new SST watching...5 or 6 years ago it was all the rage for posters in here to be looking at sea surface temperatures as a way of predicting cold weather patterns etc..now the emphasis has shifted to watching the state of the stratosphere in the Arctic as a way of trying to gauge any up and coming cold spells..new ones such as summer ice melt in the Arctic are emerging and old chestnuts like Siberian snow cover seem to making a comeback too...all of these conflicting signals make it almost impossible to call a cold winter in a small island of the NW coast of Europe..lets just hope for a nice big volcanic eruption near by to help things along

[Methuselah]

Strat watching has become the new SST watching...5 or 6 years ago it was all the rage for posters in here to be looking at sea surface temperatures as a way of predicting cold weather patterns etc..now the emphasis has shifted to watching the state of the stratosphere in the Arctic as a way of trying to gauge any up and coming cold spells..new ones such as summer ice melt in the Arctic are emerging and old chestnuts like Siberian snow cover seem to making a comeback too...all of these conflicting signals make it almost impossible to call a cold winter in a small island of the NW coast of Europe..lets just hope for a nice big volcanic eruption near by to help things along

But, CM, these factors do all play a part...We may be a wee bit like children who've discovered new toys but, eventually, the pieces of the puzzle might just fall into place?

You cannae shoot the messenger, just because the messages sometimes get taken out of context...

[cheeky_monkey]

But, CM, these factors do all play a part...We may be a wee bit like children who've discovered new toys but, eventually, the pieces of the puzzle might just fall into place?

You cannae shoot the messenger, just because the messages sometimes get taken out of context...

what i mean is people tend to latch on to the next big thing like it is the be all and end all..and forget there are a myriad of pieces in that puzzle not just one or two.

Edited October 15, 2012 by cheeky_monkey

[Gavin Hannah]

chionomaniac, on 15 October 2012 - 13:46 , said:

Which stratosphere thread are you following?

I certainly haven't said - that is called jumping to the wrong conclusion!

I did say "Signs of.."?

Anyway, you are right, probably would have been better to word it as "slight temp rise". Or "stratospheric warming", without the sudden. Either way, I certainly never stated out and out SSW, merely a hint of one.

[Methuselah]

what i mean is people tend to latch on to the next big thing like it is the be all and end all..and forget there are a myriad of pieces in that puzzle not just one or two.

Indeed they do. Some folks treat scientific theories like celebrities treat Gucci handbags. And throw them out just as quickly!

[Gavin Hannah]

Probably wise to be careful what you wish for. Let's face it, for every one of us on here who would love a cold, snow filled winter, there are probably 9 others out of 10 who want the exact opposite. With fuel and energy prices running at an all time high and set to rise even further, there is a very real danger that many people will be unable to heat their homes this Winter and we're not just talking about the old and vulnerable here. I'm sure in the cold (no pun intended) light of day none of us would like to think that someone else is suffering or even dying of cold, just because as weather fans we love snow and ice. Of course the weather will do what it does and we will, as ever, all have to accept the consequences... but let's try to remember there is another side to the coin here.

I agree with you on this. I would happily settle for 2 - 3 weeks of extreme cold and snow over Xmas and New year, but not for the entire winter for the reasons you outlined above. It is a case of head vs heart as usual. A blocked winter with relatively average temps and high pressure is always a welcome one. Even if it is just to keep the westerlies at bay. I've had about all I can take of wind and rain.

[Barry12]

It was snowing this morning in Braemar and settled apparently.

[A Winter's Tale]

The scene at the Ptarmigan station 3700ft up on the Cairngorm.

http://www.cairngormmountain.org/Webcam

[Gavin Hannah]

Nice. That is a very good covering up top today.

[chionomaniac]

Strat watching has become the new SST watching...5 or 6 years ago it was all the rage for posters in here to be looking at sea surface temperatures as a way of predicting cold weather patterns etc..now the emphasis has shifted to watching the state of the stratosphere in the Arctic as a way of trying to gauge any up and coming cold spells..new ones such as summer ice melt in the Arctic are emerging and old chestnuts like Siberian snow cover seem to making a comeback too...all of these conflicting signals make it almost impossible to call a cold winter in a small island of the NW coast of Europe..lets just hope for a nice big volcanic eruption near by to help things along

Soon we will find that they all are interlinked CM. In the same way that when we raise our hands to wave, a myriad of factors are involved: from the brain to send the signal, the nerves to transmit the signal, the muscles to apply the force, the bones to hold everything together and the blood supply for the nutrients (not forgetting tendons amd cartilage to link the bones and muscles). Without any ( or more importantly one) of these we can not lift our arms.

The same is true of all the ingredients needed for the weather. Luckily we know a lot about the body but not so much about the some of the ingredients for te weather and how important they are. They are all important but for a while we didn't even realise that the stratosphere was one of them.

[Summer Sun]

The jamstec model has now updated for October

Surface Air Temperature Anomaly is shown to be below normal

Precipitation is also shown to be below normal

So that would suggest to me a colder but drier than normal winter

The Beijing Climate Center model also updated at the end of last month it covers the period from January to March and the 850hpa temperature is shown to be just above normal for the UK

The precipitation Anomaly is shown to be bang on average

Edited October 15, 2012 by Summer Sun

[A Winter's Tale]

The jamstec model has now updated for October

Surface Air Temperature Anomaly is shown to be below normal

Precipitation is also shown to be below normal

So that would suggest to me a colder but drier than normal winter

The Beijing Climate Center model also updated at the end of last month it covers the period from January to March and the 850hpa temperature is shown to be just above normal for the UK

The precipitation Anomaly is shown to be bang on average

Thank you Gavin, it's quite interesting to still see one or two hints of heights NW of the British Isles, and all the current signals will provide plenty to ponder on but what actually happens is what stands above all at the moment.

[John Badrick]

Metcheck have issued their winter forecast, they are going for a milder winter

[shotski]

The jamstec model has now updated for October

Surface Air Temperature Anomaly is shown to be below normal

Precipitation is also shown to be below normal

So that would suggest to me a colder but drier than normal winter

The Beijing Climate Center model also updated at the end of last month it covers the period from January to March and the 850hpa temperature is shown to be just above normal for the UK

The precipitation Anomaly is shown to be bang on average

Gavin, Thats the best thing you have posted in weeks. Keep them coming, I think you are coming over to the

dark side.

[Catacol]

struth mate, throw us another snowball http://www.bbc.co.uk...acific-19932805 So, actually how rare is it for the Aussies to get snow?

Funnily enough I was online with a mate of mine in Sydney on Friday night and talking him about the warming event over the Antarctic that is ongoing at present. I asked him whether he thought that this might lead to greater temperature extremes in Australia with anything like a similar meridional pattern via a disrupted vortex (I hasten to add I know NOTHING about southern hemisphere weather and was only musing as to whether it behaves anything like the arctic) - and when he told me it was snowing and they had just had their worst snow event in ages I nearly fell off my chair. Seemed like someone somewhere in the weather heavens was reinforcing the concept that a warm strat = a disrupted vortex and consequent extreme weather in places.

[cheeky_monkey]

The jamstec model has now updated for October

Surface Air Temperature Anomaly is shown to be below normal

Precipitation is also shown to be below normal

So that would suggest to me a colder but drier than normal winter

The Beijing Climate Center model also updated at the end of last month it covers the period from January to March and the 850hpa temperature is shown to be just above normal for the UK

The precipitation Anomaly is shown to be bang on average

Looks like conflicting offerings Jamstec is a La Nina pattern whilst the Beijing model is more of a El Nino pattern

[AWD]

Interesting that the Jamstec model as moved over to something similar to the Meto probability charts now.

[Gavin Hannah]

An Accuweather winter forecast. Little bit of Europe included regards blocking setups.

[Catacol]

Metcheck have issued their winter forecast, they are going for a milder winter

Well - that's interesting. They acknowledge a more southerly polar front but dont seem to think that blocking will be prevalent. That goes against a lot of what I have read and gleaned in recent weeks. Will be interesting to see how others view it all as more forecasts come out in the next few weeks.

[weather is fun]

Well if metcheck are to be belived then i think there will be some wrist slashing going on here. Doesnt sound too good to me. It will certainly go agaisnt the snow ramp forecasters out there.

[lorenzo]

Metcheck very confusing. So February is wet and mild with significant cold spells???

February 2013

Slightly wetter than average. Slightly Milder than average across all areas with significant cold spells expected.

[shedhead]

Well if metcheck are to be belived then i think there will be some wrist slashing going on here. Doesnt sound too good to me. It will certainly go agaisnt the snow ramp forecasters out there.

If they are going for a milder than average winter then they are most definately not to be believed..at least not on here...

[Summer Sun]

Gavin, Thats the best thing you have posted in weeks. Keep them coming, I think you are coming over to the

dark side.

I always try to post the Longer Range Models if I can regardless of what they show, there's not to long to go now until winter so things should hopefully become clearer during the next updates at the beginning of November

[SnowObsessor90]

Could it be that Doylem's decided to migrate from the Daily Mail forum to this one this year?

Those who post/used to post over there will know exactly what I'm refering to here.

[weather is fun]

Could it be that Doylem's decided to migrate from the Daily Mail forum to this one this year?

Those who post/used to post over there will know exactly what I'm refering to here.

Not seen or heard anything of that clown for a while. At least on here you can have a disscussion without all the arguments. Last i heard from him is that he had been flooded out. Probably all the snow melt that did it to him.I can say hand on heart im not in the doylem brigade thats for sure.