Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[NorthernRab]

ok... think of spring as the morning, summer as daytime, autumn as the evening and winter as night. - the coldest part is just before dawn, i.e the end of the night. or to translate that to our metaphor, the last part of winter, i.e. february! i didnt think i would need to explain it but never mind....

No, I completely understood what you were saying with regards to the night being "darkest before the dawn", it's just that this metaphor isn't at all relevant here as January is normally the coldest part of winter. Unless you were suggesting that February will be colder than January this winter in which case my original question still stands: why?

Sorry that I had to explain that

Edited October 15, 2012 by NorthernRab

[bobbydog]

http://t.co/oaYTGlBC

If I read that correctly, Meto going for reasonable probability of a weak Niño this winter.

GP also alluded to something similar in the Tech thread earlier this evening.

If that proves correct, what would that mean in terms of cold potential for the UK?

If I'm not correct then apologies for the above piddle!

you are correct but on its own it means very little. it is a favourable factor but only in conjunction with many others. hope that helps.

[AWD]

you are correct but on its own it means very little. it is a favourable factor but only in conjunction with many others. hope that helps.

Is it favourable with the other early factors we already have in place?

[Alan Medlock Valley]

The winter index is what I devised. The earlier values i constructed were from Manchester airport but I can assure you that the 2009-10 value was based on my own records of lying snow, falling sleet and snow and frosts.

Exactly and if you at your location live at roughly 10-20m asl like most of Irlam is then you records will vary substantially (sometimes) than mine or someone living in Bury, Ashton-under-lyne, Denton etc, I mean your almost in Warrington as well all the way down there haha

[Mark Neal.]

A mix between December 2010, January 2010 and February 2009 here in Oxford would be most welcome

[bobbydog]

No, I completely understood what you were saying with regards to the night being "darkest before the dawn", it's just that this metaphor isn't at all relevant here as January is normally the coldest part of winter. Unless you were suggesting that February will be colder than January this winter in which case my original question still stands: why?

Sorry that I had to explain that

i was merely suggesting, as some were saying that the end of winter could not be as cold as the rest, that february, or even march has the potential to be as cold, if not even colder than the rest of winter. i was generalising. not being specific to this or any other winter in particular.

[jethro]

Yes although it was more than a foot, nearer two and it lasted a good 2 weeks with drifts on mendips lasting until first week of march. Truely epic although it was mainly above 100m really I think.

Here is a picture to bring it all back jeth From what I remember it snowed on and off all that week.

Yep, that's the one, it demolished my workshop, the whole thing collapsed like a pack of cards beneath the weight of all the snow.

[bobbydog]

Is it favourable with the other early factors we already have in place?

the simple answer is, yes. but we have a long way to go yet and many of these factors are subject to change.

[AWD]

the simple answer is, yes. but we have a long way to go yet and many of these factors are subject to change.

Cool. Still need to to a bit of research regarding nina & niño events. Not my area of expertise.

Thanks for your replies mate.

[Weather-history]

Talking about the winter indices..

Manchester winter indices from 1973-74 to 2011-12

1978-79: 262

2009-10: 197

1985-86: 159

1981-82: 149

1976-77: 141

1984-85: 140

1995-96: 135

1990-91: 126

2010-11: 119

2008-09: 105

1986-87: 100

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1993-94: 78

2000-01: 77

1996-97: 72

1979-80: 66

2005-06: 59

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

1994-95: 45

2002-03: 44

1992-93: 43

1999-00: 42

1975-76: 41

1991-92: 40

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1997-98: 25

2006-07: 21

1988-89: 20

December 1988 and January 1989, were two of the least wintriest months that I can remember. There was hardly a frost, there wasn't a hint of sleet and that was across a two month period.

Even February 1998 had snow at the very beginning and end of that month.

[ZONE 51]

If it's cold enough, rime will stick around even in February. The sun is still weak then and airmasses are colder than in December under identical synoptics.

There's a reason February is colder than December on average and similar to January.

I looked at my data, i took the coldest CET months from 1950-2003.

(not including CET 2.0/3.0 only any below that number were added)

CET below 3.0

December - 6

January - 10

February - 10

CET below 2.0

December - 2

January - 5

February - 7

This shows that February has the coldest CET months 1950-2003

Edited October 15, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

February's below CET 3.0 - 1950-2003

1954/55

1955/56

1967/68

1968/69

1969/70

1977/78

1982/83

1985/86

1990/91

[NorthernRab]

February's below CET 3.0 - 1950-2003

1954/55

1955/56

1967/68

1968/69

1969/70

1977/78

1982/83

1985/86

1990/91

Why have you stopped at 2003 out of interest?

[March Blizzard]

There's no denying that Feb has more "cold capacity", if you will, than December. Feb has 8 sub zero CET months to December's 7 (I think) Also, Feb's coldest of -1.9C is much colder than the -0.8C of December's coldest. However, in turn January occupies the top 6 coldest CET months ie the coldest Feb comes in 7th place overall.

It makes sense really, December struggles due to the warmer seas/air masses but has short days in its favour. February struggles with longer days but has cold seas and air masses in its favour. January fills the middle ground and gets the best of both worlds.

Edited October 15, 2012 by March Blizzard

[Aaron]

Cold and snowy is just much less likely in December than in February.

[ZONE 51]

Why have you stopped at 2003 out of interest?

The data only goes up to 2003 on the sites i have used for this.

I will add to the list at some point soon, other sites would have the data of course!

[Crepuscular Ray]

Hopes and wishes: that people in the winter threads won't start screaming abuse at anyone who disagrees with their wishcasts. Expectations: disintegration into name-calling. Given the variables, can anyone have a clue what the weather will be come February?

Puts on tin helmet and awaits incoming..

[March Blizzard]

Cold and snowy is just much less likely in December than in February.

Indeed. If you check out the UK mapped averages on the Met Office website even March slightly edges out December for number of days with snow/sleet falling. December, however, has significantly more days of lying snow than March, roughly comparable with Feb. Jan the most of both.

[Aaron]

Heh yeah, as demonstrated by a white Easter being more likely than a white Christmas. I think there is some validation to that claim, but I'm not sure? I've heard it thrown about a few times.

[Weather-history]

This for me is the worst type of winter weather, anticyclonic gloom. No sun, no snow, no rain, no wind, no frost, no nothing....yuk! This from 11th February 1993

Edited October 16, 2012 by Weather-history

[Liam J]

Just came across this, not sure if it's been mentioned.

Winter 2012 : Slightly Milder But Much Wetter than Average

After the cold winter of 2010 and average winter of 2011, the UK looks set to see a milder and wetter than average winter this year as ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions take hold across the Pacific over the coming weeks.

UKMO, GEOS and JMA models suggest a warming trend across the Pacific over the next few months with the Arpege, ECMWF and CFSv2 expecting neutral conditions.

Our forecast is based on NCEP CFSv2 model which indicates temperatures close to or slightly above average for much of Western Europe with precipitation levels markedly higher than we would expect during the Winter months.

November 2012

Drier than average month with high pressure dominating the weather for the first half of the month. Return to more mobile conditions later. Average temperatures for much of UK with exception of Scotland where colder than average temperatures expected. Wetter than average for many areas.

December 2012

Wetter and milder than average. South-west England expected to have significantly higher than average rainfall.

January 2013

Wetter and milder than average. South-west England expected to have significantly higher than average rainfall.

February 2013

Slightly wetter than average. Slightly Milder than average across all areas with significant cold spells expected.

March 2013

Slightly wetter than average, especially across Western areas. Average temperatures.

Notable Singularities

25 Dec - 31 Dec 2012 - Cold Spell (75% confidence for 2012 (-8%))

24 Jan - 3 Feb 2013 - Cold Spell (80% confidence for 2013 (-5%))

21 Feb - 25 Feb 2013 - Cold Spell (90% confidence for 2013 (+48%))

Discussion

There appears to be a growing trend for cyclogenesis (development of areas of low pressure) to continue occurring across the Eastern Atlantic section. The net result is for cyclolysis (decaying of areas of low pressure) to occur around the UK. This is likely to be the predominant reason for a wetter and milder than average winter this year.

Long range CFS jet stream models indicate a more Southerly location of the polar front this Winter and a more Northerly location of the sub-tropical jet stream. The net effect is likely to be a higher frequency of mid-latitude storms with lower frequency of blocking patterns. This supports our forecast.

Labrador T850 anomaly forecasts indicate temperatures of +2 to +3 during February 2013. This has been consistent over the past 2 months and has been backed up by global ensembles models. This supports our forecast for significant cold spells in February 2013.

Low frequency of blocking patterns are expected this Winter, especially at the start of the period.

This forecast will be updated December 1 2012.

http://www.metcheck....ONAL/winter.asp

Edited October 16, 2012 by Liam J

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Just came across this, not sure if it's been mentioned.

Winter 2012 : Slightly Milder But Much Wetter than Average

After the cold winter of 2010 and average winter of 2011, the UK looks set to see a milder and wetter than average winter this year as ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions take hold across the Pacific over the coming weeks.

UKMO, GEOS and JMA models suggest a warming trend across the Pacific over the next few months with the Arpege, ECMWF and CFSv2 expecting neutral conditions.

Our forecast is based on NCEP CFSv2 model which indicates temperatures close to or slightly above average for much of Western Europe with precipitation levels markedly higher than we would expect during the Winter months.

November 2012

Drier than average month with high pressure dominating the weather for the first half of the month. Return to more mobile conditions later. Average temperatures for much of UK with exception of Scotland where colder than average temperatures expected. Wetter than average for many areas.

December 2012

Wetter and milder than average. South-west England expected to have significantly higher than average rainfall.

January 2013

Wetter and milder than average. South-west England expected to have significantly higher than average rainfall.

February 2013

Slightly wetter than average. Slightly Milder than average across all areas with significant cold spells expected.

March 2013

Slightly wetter than average, especially across Western areas. Average temperatures.

Notable Singularities

25 Dec - 31 Dec 2012 - Cold Spell (75% confidence for 2012 (-8%))

24 Jan - 3 Feb 2013 - Cold Spell (80% confidence for 2013 (-5%))

21 Feb - 25 Feb 2013 - Cold Spell (90% confidence for 2013 (+48%))

Discussion

There appears to be a growing trend for cyclogenesis (development of areas of low pressure) to continue occurring across the Eastern Atlantic section. The net result is for cyclolysis (decaying of areas of low pressure) to occur around the UK. This is likely to be the predominant reason for a wetter and milder than average winter this year.

Long range CFS jet stream models indicate a more Southerly location of the polar front this Winter and a more Northerly location of the sub-tropical jet stream. The net effect is likely to be a higher frequency of mid-latitude storms with lower frequency of blocking patterns. This supports our forecast.

Labrador T850 anomaly forecasts indicate temperatures of +2 to +3 during February 2013. This has been consistent over the past 2 months and has been backed up by global ensembles models. This supports our forecast for significant cold spells in February 2013.

Low frequency of blocking patterns are expected this Winter, especially at the start of the period.

This forecast will be updated December 1 2012.

http://www.metcheck....ONAL/winter.asp

I think this forecast has been discussed (don't quote mon that tho') before and viewed upon with distain by those that are very knowledegeable, mainly due to it's lack of reasoning I believe!

[Liam J]

I think this forecast has been discussed (don't quote mon that tho') before and viewed upon with distain by those that are very knowledegeable, mainly due to it's lack of reasoning I believe!

Ah ok, I couldn't find if it had been brought to light or not. I imagine it was looked up on with disdain by those with a bias towards cold weather however, like anything at this stage this is a forecast prediction for the upcoming winter which can't be dismissed until it's had chance to verify or not.

I agree - the detail is rather lacking with little explanation to the methods and way of thinking.

Edited October 16, 2012 by Liam J

[Chris K]

By no means am I dis-crediting or saying their forecast is wrong, but it s a little conflicting, especially for February. Perhaps if they are basing this purely on model output, they may be providing conflicting signals?

"Slightly wetter than average. Slightly Milder than average across all areas with significant cold spells expected"

To me that sounds like February would be a month of big swings if it came off as they are describing - from a 'significant cold spell' to something alot milder to bring the average temps back up to slightly above average. Wetter and milder I associate with westerly influences dominating rather than cold spells? Of course, it may of been a simple typo and the could have forgotten to put the "no" infront of significant?

Its another forecast to review as we progress through winter anyway.

Edited October 16, 2012 by Chris K

[lightningst]

Just came across this, not sure if it's been mentioned.

Winter 2012 : Slightly Milder But Much Wetter than Average

After the cold winter of 2010 and average winter of 2011, the UK looks set to see a milder and wetter than average winter this year as ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions take hold across the Pacific over the coming weeks.

UKMO, GEOS and JMA models suggest a warming trend across the Pacific over the next few months with the Arpege, ECMWF and CFSv2 expecting neutral conditions.

Our forecast is based on NCEP CFSv2 model which indicates temperatures close to or slightly above average for much of Western Europe with precipitation levels markedly higher than we would expect during the Winter months.

November 2012

Drier than average month with high pressure dominating the weather for the first half of the month. Return to more mobile conditions later. Average temperatures for much of UK with exception of Scotland where colder than average temperatures expected. Wetter than average for many areas.

December 2012

Wetter and milder than average. South-west England expected to have significantly higher than average rainfall.

January 2013

Wetter and milder than average. South-west England expected to have significantly higher than average rainfall.

February 2013

Slightly wetter than average. Slightly Milder than average across all areas with significant cold spells expected.

March 2013

Slightly wetter than average, especially across Western areas. Average temperatures.

Notable Singularities

25 Dec - 31 Dec 2012 - Cold Spell (75% confidence for 2012 (-8%))

24 Jan - 3 Feb 2013 - Cold Spell (80% confidence for 2013 (-5%))

21 Feb - 25 Feb 2013 - Cold Spell (90% confidence for 2013 (+48%))

Discussion

There appears to be a growing trend for cyclogenesis (development of areas of low pressure) to continue occurring across the Eastern Atlantic section. The net result is for cyclolysis (decaying of areas of low pressure) to occur around the UK. This is likely to be the predominant reason for a wetter and milder than average winter this year.

Long range CFS jet stream models indicate a more Southerly location of the polar front this Winter and a more Northerly location of the sub-tropical jet stream. The net effect is likely to be a higher frequency of mid-latitude storms with lower frequency of blocking patterns. This supports our forecast.

Labrador T850 anomaly forecasts indicate temperatures of +2 to +3 during February 2013. This has been consistent over the past 2 months and has been backed up by global ensembles models. This supports our forecast for significant cold spells in February 2013.

Low frequency of blocking patterns are expected this Winter, especially at the start of the period.

This forecast will be updated December 1 2012.

http://www.metcheck....ONAL/winter.asp

oh dear to be honest I find there forecast laughable. Not because there don't forecast cold but the bit about the cold between 25th and 30th of December with 75% confidence. We are not to sure what next week or the week after that will do but they have 75% confidence in something that's more then two months away! Never mind the ones for January and February just a joke in my opinion. Edited October 16, 2012 by lightningst