Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[Chris K]

A perennial Euro/Bartlett High.

I feel sick.

[AWD]

A perennial Euro/Bartlett High.

Imagine what this place would be like if that is our winter pattern. lol

[Bishop Brennan]

A perennial Euro/Bartlett High.

[shudder]

Now I know what pure evil looks like.

Bish

[Methuselah]

A perennial Euro/Bartlett High.

And that was after snow in November/early December too!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

And that was after snow in November/early December too!

The writing was on the wall though Pete with tendency for low heights to north and Euro HP during late Nov and early Dec, there was that singular LP that dived SE

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I certainly don't deny the importance but in my opinion their are also many other variables that are also important. I do however question our understanding of the stratosphere along with all the other variables. The examples I pointed out in previous posts was to highlight that the cold spell in Dec 2009 did not occur due to a SSW and from what I can tell only minor warmings of the stratosphere occured. Also in Feb 2010, 2011 we were hoping for some N blocking due to a SSW and instead we had a strong PV. All im saying is I don't want newcomers to assume a SSW = bitter cold spell, a SSW just increases the chances of N blocking but you need all the other variables to play ball.

I also want to clear up my general negative view of long range forecasting. Whilst I believe forecasting 1 month ahead is possible, I certainly don't believe in predicting a whole season 3 months away. Infact I reckon if someone made a winter forecast in September that was based on experience, instincts against a forecast based on science, then in my opinion they have an equal chance of being correct.

Good post Dave, and good acknowledgement that stratos has important part but as all other teles/drivers need others to also fall into place. Vast majority don't understand how it works but a couple seem to be getting very good grips of it and having improving results too. Re your last its like betting on Derby or Grand National, better half picks as many winners as me just because she likes the name of the horse or the colours the jockey wears. That shouldn't happen but form doesn't make it foolproof, horse has to be right, jockey on top form, clear run, ground that suits etc etc.

BFTP

[Methuselah]

The writing was on the wall though Pete with tendency for low heights to north and Euro HP during late Nov and early Dec, there was that singular LP that dived SE

BFTP

Aye, Fred, it was...but we have the benefit of hindsight. I wonder what we'd have all been saying, had we been on NW back then? I also wonder if knowledge of the Stratospheric temperature-profile, and its implications for the likely development of the PV, would have changed people's expectations?

IMO, watching for SSWs give us an early indication of where blocking is more likely to occur; which, I think, is a major advance on the situation in the 'old days'...Northern blocking over Canada isn't always that 'beneficial' to NW'ern Europe, but it's still 'northern blocking', nonetheless?

[Gavin Hannah]

*Cough Cough* Can anyone say blocking pattern? This is from the 00Z Run .

And these are from last nights 18Z Run.

Notice the similar pattern emerging of HP just off South West Greenland. This is a pattern that "Hopefully" will continue to develop. I know they say don't compare one run from the next, but as it's within 7 days, it's worth keeping an eye on. The 00Z run really develops the HP system to bring in a lovely ridge of blocking to our north, putting us under an Easterly.

Now don't go getting your hopes up too much, this trend could very well just disappear, BUT, if it does develop, depending on the specifics, we could get some decent high ground snowfall. One to keep an eye out for, and an example of what I would very much like to see come the winter.

Edited October 15, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[Met4Cast]

Thats the difference between me and others, as long as i have a decent coat i feel more comfortable in -10 than i do in a t-shirt at anything much more than 20c if the sun is out and its still.

I'm exactly the same. Anything above 24c in this country for me is uncomfortable, the humidity just ruins the heat for me, I much prefer a sub-zero day where I can just stick on a couple of layers and be warm.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Can't quite believe it has been 25 years since this, but an interesting insight (if not a little short) into how the Met'o have evolved following the Great Storm http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19926031

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

struth mate, throw us another snowball http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-19932805 So, actually how rare is it for the Aussies to get snow?

[bluearmy]

Do you think there is too much emphasis on the strat and other teleconnections ?

I do fear some people will think winter is over if things going on above are not 'right' cira mid November.

One part of the fun of living on a marginal Island is we can't predict if there will be wide ranging blizzards 2 weeks ahead. Looking at the CET December 2010 forecast ,I see some seasoned forecasters were 4c out on predictions given a week before the start of that month.

i can see a problem if we end up with a very meridional flow whereby we manage to sit in the wrong place for most of the winter. in that case, all the forecasts would promote a likely cold winter and verification might be quite different due to bad luck. if the telecons and strat both point to a cold season then i think it will be cold with the added caveat as mentioned above. (bear in mind that we cant look more than a month to 6 weeks ahead with any reasonable insight in general unless there is good evidence of an SSW likely january time.)

[Bumpkin]

Coming back into reality somewhat, i would be happy with an average winter with something for everyone from occasional snowy spells, high pressure set ups bringing average temperatures and raging mild southwesterlies and the odd bartlett set up from time to time. As the saying goes variety is the spice of life. I would personally dislike another December 2010 as it was great watching the snow fall and seeing the accumulations the following day but from then on it just became a chore to be daily scraping the car of ice and negotiating the trecherous roads. It also ruined the football schedules as well.

Instead a winter like 03/04 would suit me fine. I recall 3 spells of cold at the end of each month so i got to experience some cold stuff but it didnt drag on too much, By late February Spring should be underway.

I'm with you on this. I know its like commiting blasphemy on this board for not wanting snowmagedon but personally it could be a nightmare here. I could cope with a long snowy spell if the road through the village was gritted or people who cannot drive to the conditions stayed off the road! Its not the snow so much but the ice. I'm confident in my abilities of driving on ice but unfortunately i'm not confident of others, as i found out in December 2010 when a tractor and trailer slid into the side of my car.

We are ok to heat our home for the winter but I worry about the elderly and vulnerable, fuel companies are bleeding us dry and i am concerned how some people will cope.

I know that this is probably a far too sensible post but everyones circumstances are different. If you live in a town/city where the roads are gritted, shops are in walking distance and your home is toasty, then a 62/63 would have less effect on you. I do love the snow and have a great time playing in it with the children and dogs but even my 3 children had enough after a week of Dec 2010. They couldn't get to friends houses and friends couldn't get to us.

Having said that i would love to see a few snowy spells this winter.

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

I had to pick my chin of the floor when looking at all your photos.

Waw

[UV-RAY]

I'm with you on this. I know its like commiting blasphemy on this board for not wanting snowmagedon but personally it could be a nightmare here. I could cope with a long snowy spell if the road through the village was gritted or people who cannot drive to the conditions stayed off the road! Its not the snow so much but the ice. I'm confident in my abilities of driving on ice but unfortunately i'm not confident of others, as i found out in December 2010 when a tractor and trailer slid into the side of my car.

We are ok to heat our home for the winter but I worry about the elderly and vulnerable, fuel companies are bleeding us dry and i am concerned how some people will cope.

I know that this is probably a far too sensible post but everyones circumstances are different. If you live in a town/city where the roads are gritted, shops are in walking distance and your home is toasty, then a 62/63 would have less effect on you. I do love the snow and have a great time playing in it with the children and dogs but even my 3 children had enough after a week of Dec 2010. They couldn't get to friends houses and friends couldn't get to us.

Having said that i would love to see a few snowy spells this winter.

Witch, burn her!!

Edited October 15, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[Keraunic]

I would love some very heavy snow fall in January. It brightens the place up and I can enjoy it without thinking about Christmas.

[sunny scunny]

Even some places in Scotland would be lucky to see as much snow as that.

Indeed. I remember going for long walks and the snow was upto my knees in the fields. It really was amazing being out and about in that.

[Gavin Hannah]

For those not following the Strato' thread.. promising signs of a SSW event beginning.

[Ruzzi]

With all the hype surrounding this winter, I just want to put this out there. People saying that 2009/2010 was very rare, and won't be repeated for years etc, I tend to think IF we are entering a new phase of winters then surely mother nature wouldn't have thrown the worst at us at the start. With the solar cycle due to peak (very weakly) next spring, the next 11 years will be on the slide with probably one of the lowest solar minimum's ever and much weaker cycles predicted to follow. Obviously there are suggested links between solar output and its influence on northern blocking and the jet stream but nothing proven as yet .... anyway with the prolonged weather patterns of the past few years, i.e (certain types synoptics locking down for weeks - months at a time), coupled with a weakening sun, increasing melt seasons in the arctic (again not proven but probably likely to have an affect on our weather in some sense), and the new cooling phase of the AMO, I would be inclined to think that in maybe 10 years time when we are well under the influence of these factors that we may just see one hell of a winter. Again, ofcourse there are cases when all the teleconnections seemed very favourable only for a mild mush of a winter to follow but I reckon we will hit the jackpot at some point in the next 10 - 15 years when a favourable weather synoptic sets up camp perfectly for most of the winter. If memory serves me correctly a weather pattern locked in from late march this year for a few months that during the winter would have brought about the fun and games. I honestly do believe we will hit it just right in the near future.

I just want to highlight the AMO index around some of the colder winters:

I know it's not necessarily guaranteed, but if you look around the colder winters of 46/47, 62/63, 78/79, 09/10, the AMO was either on the downward trend or in negative values, possibly a coincidence but still a good omen for the next 20-30 years. I know there will probably be many who disagree with this post but I'm no ice age believer, I'm just trying to look at this from the outside in and relay my opinions.

Also if you get a chance, have a quick look at this:

http://www.holtonweather.com/FORECAST%20MEAN%20GLOBAL%20TEMPERATURE%20TRENDS%20FROM%202009%20TO%202050.pdf

I have to say, it provides rather interesting reading, although I do want to state that I had written most of this post before reading this link.

[Bumpkin]

Witch, burn her!!

I've been called worse! I get excited as anyone when snow is forecast, I have the radar on the pc, watching intently and working out when it will arrive here. For the last coule of years I've looked at different LRF, avidly model watched, and followed the snow & ice thread and the strat thread but I would get fed up after a week of either not being able to go anywhere or risking life and limb driving on icy roads. The prang i had in Dec 10 was my one and only and it really shook me up.

[Ruzzi]

For those not following the Strato' thread.. promising signs of a SSW event beginning.

Yes certainly looking interesting but I would hesitate to start pinning hopes on the start of december just yet. I think anything with a 6 week time lag has to be taken with a pinch of salt as we all know, anything can happen. But not gonna deny, it does raise the expectation that little bit more. Not long to go now ....

[Gavin Hannah]

Yes certainly looking interesting but I would hesitate to start pinning hopes on the start of december just yet. I think anything with a 6 week time lag has to be taken with a pinch of salt as we all know, anything can happen. But not gonna deny, it does raise the expectation that little bit more. Not long to go now ....

Not pinning my hopes on it alone, more like, adding it to "The Epic Winter Box of Stuff Required For An Epic Winter.".

[shedhead]

Probably wise to be careful what you wish for. Let's face it, for every one of us on here who would love a cold, snow filled winter, there are probably 9 others out of 10 who want the exact opposite. With fuel and energy prices running at an all time high and set to rise even further, there is a very real danger that many people will be unable to heat their homes this Winter and we're not just talking about the old and vulnerable here. I'm sure in the cold (no pun intended) light of day none of us would like to think that someone else is suffering or even dying of cold, just because as weather fans we love snow and ice. Of course the weather will do what it does and we will, as ever, all have to accept the consequences... but let's try to remember there is another side to the coin here.

Edited October 15, 2012 by shedhead

[chionomaniac]

For those not following the Strato' thread.. promising signs of a SSW event beginning.

Which stratosphere thread are you following?

I certainly haven't said - that is called jumping to the wrong conclusion!

[Rocheydub]

Which stratosphere thread are you following?

I certainly haven't said - that is called jumping to the wrong conclusion!

Was just about to post the same thing...

There is a slight temp rise, but certainly not a SSW!