Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[bobbydog]

There is no proven correlation between the strat and our winters and even if the strat is a 'factor', it is just one of many.

I suggest no one gives up on the winter because of the strat, we still cant predict the weather more then a week ahead.

'

It is still only mid October and too many 'background signals' have lead to many mis calculated season forecasts.

i can't wait for chiono's reply to that!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Plenty of blocking patterns on the latest CFS over the next couple of months, the first stonker though is this one.

A London and South Eastern transport network rasberry rippler!!

Edited October 14, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[stewfox]

i can't wait for chiono's reply to that!!

I am talking re UK and the margin not re NH v Strat and there isnt otherwise we could 'predict' the UK winter weather.

[bobbydog]

I am talking re UK and the margin not re NH v Strat and there isnt otherwise we could 'predict' the UK winter weather.

i'm joking mate. though the strat does have an influence, i get what you are saying, for europe as a whole, the strat is a big factor but the UK has so many different influences in winter that it is very difficult to predict our weather. many people don't realise how fragile the balance is between our weather and continental europe due to the atlantic. dare i say it but this is why Joe B's forecast for us last year was 'wrong' we actually missed out by just a few hundred miles. a midge's chuff by meteorological standards!

[feb1991blizzard]

Whilst a 1962/63 winter sounds fun, lets be honest feeling cold and frozen is horrible, its easy to sit in your nice warm room looking out of the window at a blizzard or heavy snow falling, but when its not snowing and just freezing cold and you have to leave the house for work early in the morning and you get into your frozen car, or when you get out of the shower and you feel freezing, then thats when i start to get a bit annoyed about the cold

I am a fan of snow not cold, but of course i put up with the cold if there is plenty of snow, if we had a month of cold frosty high pressure i would like it for a couple of weeks but then i will be begging for zonality to return. if there is no sign of snow on the way

Thats the difference between me and others, as long as i have a decent coat i feel more comfortable in -10 than i do in a t-shirt at anything much more than 20c if the sun is out and its still.

Edited October 14, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Aaron]

I love the feel of fresh, clean cold air on my skin and I love breathing it in - feels so refreshing! I recall talking my dog for a walk in sub-zero temperatures in just a hoody and jeans back in December 2010, and I felt fine.

If we had a period of high pressure delivering severe frost but no snow, I would be totally fine - in the latter half of December 2010 we had virtually no snow here, but the landscape was still frozen due to rime frost, lakes frozen, rivers frozen etc. - lovely!

Edited October 14, 2012 by Aaron

[UV-RAY]

I really really don't care if this post IS deleted as some will read it before it is................pointless posting on this thread, if one says anything against the grain then apparently you are an atagonist and the 'know alls' jump on the bandwagon....TEITS has/had a point...end of

BFTP

Totally agree Fred, all TEITS did was proclaim his scepticism, which was hardly being antagonistic. I do hope that he continues to post on here.

[Andy_]

I love looking up my street in a North Easterly airstream and seeing a massive black snow cloud, and then the snow beginning to slowly fall before it comes down in heaves!

If we don't get that type of setup this year i'll be sorely disappointed for sure.

[bluearmy]

Totally agree Fred, all TEITS did was proclaim his scepticism, which was hardly being antagonistic. I do hope that he continues to post on here.

TEITS is a valued member of this forum and has plenty to offer, especially when it comes to wintry scenarios where his experience is worth plenty. however, members are bound to be frustrated when supporting evidence is posted that isnt actually correct. i dont blame Dave for his initial post as its what he feels but i also respect others for defending themselves when the evidence was very shaky. as long as respect is shown in posts then i dont see a problem with healthy debate.

[cyclonic happiness]

Going out side in the garden, or out on a walk ans waiting for that first snowflake to fall, I think this is one of the most magical things that any lover of weather can experience.

I bet even the seasoned weatherphiles like JH still get that little shiver of excitement when it happens?

It's just so magical, in a world where magic has been banished to books and films.

[stewfox]

TEITS is a valued member of this forum and has plenty to offer, especially when it comes to wintry scenarios where his experience is worth plenty. however, members are bound to be frustrated when supporting evidence is posted that isnt actually correct. i dont blame Dave for his initial post as its what he feels but i also respect others for defending themselves when the evidence was very shaky. as long as respect is shown in posts then i dont see a problem with healthy debate.

Do you think there is too much emphasis on the strat and other teleconnections ?

I do fear some people will think winter is over if things going on above are not 'right' cira mid November.

One part of the fun of living on a marginal Island is we can't predict if there will be wide ranging blizzards 2 weeks ahead. Looking at the CET December 2010 forecast ,I see some seasoned forecasters were 4c out on predictions given a week before the start of that month.

Edited October 14, 2012 by stewfox

[BarometerBunts]

TEITS is a valued member of this forum and has plenty to offer, especially when it comes to wintry scenarios where his experience is worth plenty. however, members are bound to be frustrated when supporting evidence is posted that isnt actually correct. i dont blame Dave for his initial post as its what he feels but i also respect others for defending themselves when the evidence was very shaky. as long as respect is shown in posts then i dont see a problem with healthy debate.

I have to say when I read TEITS post I endorsed it because I interpreted what he was trying to say was that even the creme de la creme of netweather could not always foresee our weather even with all the varied charts/methods at their disposal. As an admirer of these experts, I genuinely was surprised at how this post had been interpreted. Perhaps the helpful message to newbies could have been posed in alternative way but I genuinely do not think it was a deliberate dig. I look forward to reading ALL posts during the upcoming winter and pray that the only cold felt will be outside and not within the forum. Keep up the good work.

[Milhouse]

Coming back into reality somewhat, i would be happy with an average winter with something for everyone from occasional snowy spells, high pressure set ups bringing average temperatures and raging mild southwesterlies and the odd bartlett set up from time to time. As the saying goes variety is the spice of life. I would personally dislike another December 2010 as it was great watching the snow fall and seeing the accumulations the following day but from then on it just became a chore to be daily scraping the car of ice and negotiating the trecherous roads. It also ruined the football schedules as well.

Instead a winter like 03/04 would suit me fine. I recall 3 spells of cold at the end of each month so i got to experience some cold stuff but it didnt drag on too much, By late February Spring should be underway.

[Catacol]

TEITS is a valued member of this forum and has plenty to offer, especially when it comes to wintry scenarios where his experience is worth plenty. however, members are bound to be frustrated when supporting evidence is posted that isnt actually correct. i dont blame Dave for his initial post as its what he feels but i also respect others for defending themselves when the evidence was very shaky. as long as respect is shown in posts then i dont see a problem with healthy debate.

Agreed.

[bobbydog]

Do you think there is too much emphasis on the strat and other teleconnections ?

I do fear some people will think winter is over if things going on above are not 'right' cira mid November.

One part of the fun of living on a marginal Island is we can't predict if there will be wide ranging blizzards 2 weeks ahead. Looking at the CET December 2010 forecast ,I see some seasoned forecasters were 4c out on predictions given a week before the start of that month.

maybe because we are coming to realise it is a very important factor, some are thinking it is the most important factor. as you say, being on a marginal island, it can be easily over-ridden by other influences. all part of the fun of weather watching!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I would just like to experience a proper blizzard with heavy prolonged snow in a driving wind, with drifts up to the top of the hedges. Not seen that since I was a lad in the mid eighties!

[Cheshire Freeze]

TBH I don't see how anyone can deny the importance of the stratospheric state on the weather 'on the ground'. The evidence is there for all to see.....Chiono has laboured this point for quite a while now. It really is that black and white IMO; this is further cemented by the MetOffice investing in the subject. A powerful vortex= LP over polar regions= westerlies around the mid latitudes and little or no retrograde of the flow. I understand that there's debate over whether the strat being cold encourages a strong vortex but I, for one, am sold. This is not to say that I believe others should be chastised for their differing/challenging views, because they shouldn't.

[ZONE 51]

Below i have put together data for the the coldest cet month from that winter-dec-feb and if it was a La-nina or El-nino winter.

(any CET below 2.0 is highlighted in blue)

Year C.E.T ENSO Coldest cet month

1950-51 1.2 La Nina Dec

1951-52 2.7 La Nina Jan

1952-53 2.8 La Nina Dec

1953-54 2.9 La Nina Jan

1954-55 1.2 La Nina Feb

1955-56 -0.2 La Nina Feb

1956-57 5.3 La Nina Feb

1957-58 3.4 El-Niño Jan

1958-59 1.6 La Nina Jan

1959-60 3.8 La Nina Jan

1960-61 3.9 La Nina Jan

1961-62 2.2 La Nina Dec

1962-63 -2.1 La Nina Jan

1963-64 2.6 La Nina Dec

1964-65 3.1 La Nina Feb

1965-66 2.9 El Niño Jan

1966-67 4.5 La nina Jan

1967-68 1.9 La nina Feb

1968-69 1.0 La nina Feb

1969-70 2.9 La nina Feb

1970-71 4.3 La nina Dec

1971-72 3.9 La nina Jan

1972-73 4.3 El Niño Feb

1973-74 4.9 La nina Dec

1974-75 4.4 La nina Feb

1975-76 4.5 La nina Feb

1976-77 2.0 El Niño Dec

1977-78 2.8 El Niño Feb

1978-79 -0.4 El Niño Jan

1979-80 2.3 El Niño Jan

1980-81 3.0 El Niño Feb

1981-82 0.3 El Niño Dec

1982-83 1.7 El Niño Feb

1983-84 3.3 El Niño Feb

1984-85 0.8 El Niño Jan

1985-86 -1.1 El Niño Feb

1986-87 0.8 El Niño Jan

1987-88 4.9 El Niño Feb

1988-89 5.9 La Nina Feb

1989-90 4.9 El Niño Dec

1990-91 1.5 El Niño Feb

1991-92 3.7 El Niño Jan

1992-93 3.6 El Niño Dec

1993-94 3.2 El Niño Feb

1994-95 4.8 El Niño Jan

1995-96 2.3 El Niño Dec

1996-97 2.5 El Niño Jan

1997-98 5.2 El Niño Jan

1998-99 5.3 La Nina Feb

99-2000 4.9 La Nina Jan

2000-01 3.2 La Nina Jan

2001-02 3.6 El Niño Dec

2002-03 3.9 El Niño Feb

If any one could provide me with data for the years below that would be great, coldest set month and La Nina/El Nino.

2003-04 -

2004-05 -

2005-06 -

2006-07 -

2007-08 -

2008-09 -

2009-10 -

2010-11 -

2011-12 -

ESS

(any dated spotted as incorrect please let me know, it has all come from well known and respected sites)

Edited October 15, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

How strange is this, i was inputting data for my post above, when i had got to the last data entry it had 2011/2012 at number 62! if i added 2012/13 that would take it to 63, which means 2012/2013 would be on 62/63!!

see image below:

If you don't know why i've posted this, the winter of 1962/63 was freezing with lots of snow,

Edited October 15, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[LincolnSnowstorm]

looking for more evidence this winter of weather extremes and to see the effect the ice melt made on the jet stream http://www.calgaryherald.com/technology/University+Calgary+professor+says+melting+will+lead+extreme+weather/7292810/story.html#ixzz29JmnUAHx

[TEITS]

I would just like to experience a proper blizzard with heavy prolonged snow in a driving wind, with drifts up to the top of the hedges. Not seen that since I was a lad in the mid eighties!

Same here and like you I recall some classic blizzards in the mid 80s.

One of the most frustrating experiences in recent years for my location is late Nov/early Dec 2010 when parts of Lincs, Humberside, Yorkshire, experienced frequent heavy snow showers off the N Sea during the E,ly outbreak. Just 30 miles to my N some locations experienced over 30cm of lying snow and I only had a dusting. So frustrating to see all those showers pass to the N of me on the radar.

Im starting to get into winter mode now because we are only 4 weeks away from mid November when in my opinion lower elevations can see snowfall, especially from N,lys.

[TEITS]

TBH I don't see how anyone can deny the importance of the stratospheric state on the weather 'on the ground'. The evidence is there for all to see....

I certainly don't deny the importance but in my opinion their are also many other variables that are also important. I do however question our understanding of the stratosphere along with all the other variables. The examples I pointed out in previous posts was to highlight that the cold spell in Dec 2009 did not occur due to a SSW and from what I can tell only minor warmings of the stratosphere occured. Also in Feb 2010, 2011 we were hoping for some N blocking due to a SSW and instead we had a strong PV. All im saying is I don't want newcomers to assume a SSW = bitter cold spell, a SSW just increases the chances of N blocking but you need all the other variables to play ball.

I also want to clear up my general negative view of long range forecasting. Whilst I believe forecasting 1 month ahead is possible, I certainly don't believe in predicting a whole season 3 months away. Infact I reckon if someone made a winter forecast in September that was based on experience, instincts against a forecast based on science, then in my opinion they have an equal chance of being correct.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

How strange is this, i was inputting data for my post above, when i had got to the last data entry it had 2011/2012 at number 62! if i added 2012/13 that would take it to 63, which means 2012/2013 would be on 62/63!!

see image below:

If you don't know why i've posted this, the winter of 1962/63 was freezing with lots of snow,

aha... The signs are there even if they are not always meteorlogical

[Bishop Brennan]

Year C.E.T ENSO Coldest cet month

1988-89 5.9 La Nina Feb

Good lord, what on earth happened during 1988-89????!

Bish

[Harve]

Good lord, what on earth happened during 1988-89????!

Bish

A perennial Euro/Bartlett High.