Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[AderynCoch]

Decembers 1974 & 1988 were both milder than February 1998. The absolute temperature record for December (17.7C) isn't quite as high as February but overall it is a milder month.

The sun isn't as weak in February as in December but it's still weak nonetheless. Origin of airmass is a far more important factor.

[ZONE 51]

Again the strength of sun in February is being overplayed. February is roughly on par with November and end of October in terms of sun strength.

Early March 2001 was indeed severe with a low of -20.6C, a minimum temperature not surpassed until Jan 2010.

There's been some potent snowy cold spells as late as April to.

[feb1991blizzard]

Technically that's arctic maritime Polar maritime is normally sourced from the North West, while this is the 'Pièce de résistance' from the North East

Sorry i dont think i made myself clear, A member called 'polar maritime' liked my post as i was updating it, just as i was about to post an even better chart with a floodgatum de openuim easterly, thats where the 'polar maritime' comment came from, i was not referring to the airmass source

[Andy_]

Sorry i dont think i made myself clear, A member called 'polar maritime' liked my post as i was updating it, just as i was about to post an even better chart with a floodgatum de openuim easterly, thats where the 'polar maritime' comment came from, i was not referring to the airmass source

Yeah i've just realised hahaha trust me to drop in on the thread late busy period and not know what is going on!

Nice cfs run anyways ha

[Alan Medlock Valley]

Decembers 1974 & 1988 were both milder than February 1998. The absolute temperature record for December (17.7C) isn't quite as high as February but overall it is a milder month.

The sun isn't as weak in February as in December but it's still weak nonetheless. Origin of airmass is a far more important factor.

December 1988 wasn't milder than February 1998, not convinced about 1974 though as I don't have the data that far back so can't comment on that year.

Edited October 15, 2012 by Alan Medlock Valley

[ZONE 51]

Links are for weather records/events/historic weather..

http://booty.org.uk/...e/1900_1949.htm

http://booty.org.uk/...e/1850_1899.htm

http://booty.org.uk/...e/1650_1699.htm !!

http://booty.org.uk/...e/1500_1599.htm!!

how far does this go back!

To find out here is the main link:

http://booty.org.uk/.../histclimat.htm

1950 (April):

1. A heavy SNOWFALL on the 25th and 26th in 1950 caused much damage in south east England, bringing down over a thousand telegraph poles and numerous trees.

Edited October 15, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[feb1991blizzard]

Yeah i've just realised hahaha trust me to drop in on the thread late busy period and not know what is going on!

Nice cfs run anyways ha

Yes, a real belter, all eye candy at this stage of course, and i only post them for people to look at, in no way do i ever take them seriously, the first time i will take them seriously is if they start popping up REGULARLY on the GFS low res and then come into ECM 240 range, and even then, only if there is consistency shown.

Edited October 15, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Alan Medlock Valley]

December 1988 wasn't milder than February 1998, it wasn't far off though. Not convinced about 1974 though as I don't have the data that far back so can't comment on that year.

[Zakos]

interesting blog update on the stratospheric temperature - http://ukweather.wordpress.com/2012/10/15/stratosphere-temperature-update/

[March Blizzard]

In terms of CET isn't the mildest December on record milder than the mildest February on record?

[AderynCoch]

December 1988 CET mean: 7.5C

February 1998 CET mean: 7.3C

http://www.metoffice...t_mean_sort.txt

Dec 88 had a higher average minimum and lower average maximum than Feb 98, but overall it was milder. Ditto for Dec 74.

In terms of CET isn't the mildest December on record milder than the mildest February on record?

Yes.

Edited October 15, 2012 by AderynCoch

[Aaron]

Rime is yeah, but not to last all day in the sun on trees

Ugh, why do you keep trotting the same thing day in day out? I have seen snow last for a full week on the ground as recently as February this year!!

Edited October 15, 2012 by Aaron

[jethro]

Down here in the South West we had an amazing snow fall during the first week of Feb 2009, it was at least a foot deep and hung around for at least a week, perhaps longer.

[bobbydog]

to those debating whether december is colder than february, just remember, the coldest part of the night is just before dawn....

[NorthernRab]

to those debating whether december is colder than february, just remember, the coldest part of the night is just before dawn....

Indeed, but all that tells you is that the coldest part of a December night is just before a December daw and that the same applies to a February night / dawn. It doesn't tell you which is colder.

[Weather-history]

Exactly hence why I said "since"

I think you misunderstood, the index says 2009-10 surpassed 1995-96 in terms of wintriness, so how can be it "since"? It's like saying summer 2012 was the wettest summer since 2007 when infact it surpassed it.

[bobbydog]

Indeed, but all that tells you is that the coldest part of a December night is just before a December daw and that the same applies to a February night / dawn. It doesn't tell you which is colder.

i knew someone would try to rationalise a metaphor... i'm comparing the seasons to a day......

[sunny scunny]

Ugh, why do you keep trotting the same thing day in day out? I have seen snow last for a full week on the ground as recently as February this year!!

yep same here. I seem to remember two snowfall events last feb, with the snow lasting on the ground for a week as you say.

[NorthernRab]

i knew someone would try to rationalise a metaphor... i'm comparing the seasons to a day......

Yes but...why?

[Alan Medlock Valley]

I think you misunderstood, the index says 2009-10 surpassed 1995-96 in terms of wintriness, so how can be it "since"? It's like saying summer 2012 was the wettest summer since 2007 when infact it surpassed it.

The Winter index for Manchester is recorded at Manchester Airport which is located some 12 miles away from here and is not in a frost hollow unlike here, so it's not valid 100% for my location all of the time but for 50% of Manchester yes.

2009/10 was the worst Winter since 1995/1996, hence like I said we haven't had a winter like that or at least comparably cold/snowy "since" 1995-1996.

Edited October 15, 2012 by Alan Medlock Valley

[Nights King]

Down here in the South West we had an amazing snow fall during the first week of Feb 2009, it was at least a foot deep and hung around for at least a week, perhaps longer.

Yes although it was more than a foot, nearer two and it lasted a good 2 weeks with drifts on mendips lasting until first week of march. Truely epic although it was mainly above 100m really I think.

Here is a picture to bring it all back jeth From what I remember it snowed on and off all that week.

Edited October 15, 2012 by mullender83

[Weather-history]

Decembers 1974 & 1988 were both milder than February 1998. The absolute temperature record for December (17.7C) isn't quite as high as February but overall it is a milder month.

The sun isn't as weak in February as in December but it's still weak nonetheless. Origin of airmass is a far more important factor.

It depends how you measure the "mildness" You can measure it absolutely or by anomaly.

Mildest December on record is 8.1

Mildest February on record is 7.9

Look at the anomaly though against 1971-2000 averages

+3.0C for December

+3.7C for February

So December 1988 may have been milder by absolute values by anomalies, February 1998 had the greater anomaly.

[bobbydog]

Yes but...why?

ok... think of spring as the morning, summer as daytime, autumn as the evening and winter as night. - the coldest part is just before dawn, i.e the end of the night. or to translate that to our metaphor, the last part of winter, i.e. february! i didnt think i would need to explain it but never mind....

[Weather-history]

The Winter index for Manchester is recorded at Manchester Airport which is located some 12 miles away from here and is not in a frost hollow unlike here, so it's not valid 100% for my location all of the time but for 50% of Manchester yes.

2009/10 was the worst Winter since 1995/1996, hence like I said we haven't had a winter like that or at least comparably cold/snowy "since" 1995-1996.

The winter index is what I devised. The data to determine winter indices from years ago were from Manchester airport data but I can assure you that the 2009-10 value was based on my own records of lying snow, falling sleet and snow and frosts.

Edited October 15, 2012 by Weather-history

[AWD]

http://t.co/oaYTGlBC

If I read that correctly, Meto going for reasonable probability of a weak Niño this winter.

GP also alluded to something similar in the Tech thread earlier this evening.

If that proves correct, what would that mean in terms of cold potential for the UK?

If I'm not correct then apologies for the above piddle!