Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[Carl46Wrexham]

We've actually got a bit of ice on the roof of our car...clear skies...temps dropped just enough it would seem.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Well last Christmas was more like early May...and late October can be chilly too!

Pour yourself a brandy and don't worry about it...Merry Christmas!

dont like brandy pmsl, had wine though, heres to a dry new year anyway

[SnowObsessor90]

Is GP like literally one of the only ones left standing on here now? as that's what it's starting to feel like even looking at the strat thread reading between the lines which is generally more level headed than that other madhouse.

Edited December 25, 2012 by Anonymous21

[weather_it_will]

I can't see anything but a mild January from looking at the models at present.

This time last year was the same, with model watchers looking for cold in deep FI that was never going to happen, but I admire their enthusiasm which is greater than mine.

I can't see any sign of snow (which is what we all want), until late Jan/Feb if you are lucky.

RIP model watching until end of January.

Always got one eye open though and who hasn't?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I can't see anything but a mild January from looking at the models at present.

This time last year was the same, with model watchers looking for cold in deep FI that was never going to happen, but I admire their enthusiasm which is greater than mine.

I can't see any sign of snow (which is what we all want), until late Jan/Feb if you are lucky.

RIP model watching until end of January.

Always got one eye open though and who hasn't?

Not necessarily mild, FI seems to be agreeing on high pressure taking over, if that falls right, southern UK could be cold, snow in Feb likely as the netweather winter forecast

[Peter H]

Always got one eye open though and who hasn't?

Yep, I suppose you never can tell, can you ?

It's really impossible to forecast accurately for any more than a week or so ahead, and things have been known to change very suddenly and unexpectedly, but I'm not optomistic. The mild Atlantic air has penetrated quite far into Europe now, and that's a bad sign.

[shotski]

I can't see anything but a mild January from looking at the models at present.

This time last year was the same, with model watchers looking for cold in deep FI that was never going to happen, but I admire their enthusiasm which is greater than mine.

I can't see any sign of snow (which is what we all want), until late Jan/Feb if you are lucky.

RIP model watching until end of January.

Always got one eye open though and who hasn't?

I would say the current output is full of potential.

Take a look at early Jan 1987, not a million miles away to what we have at present.

add to this a possible strat warming early Jan and a scandi high could be on the cards.

Come back in a week I would say

[cerneman]

Great thunderstorm this morning,Second in three days, Weather patterns in turmoil, I love the cold snowy weather but there are many other weather experiences that can be interesting and exciting, Lets see if forecast strat warning can help us get in some cold by mid Jan? Some nice cold sunny days,frosty nights would do,

[Gord]

Never mind the cold, the charts are perfect for the flood hit areas this morning. Boring for us enthusiasts maybe but I'd rather put any cold on hold to enable the people who are suffering from flood damage the chance to sort things out.

[cerneman]

Never mind the cold, the charts are perfect for the flood hit areas this morning. Boring for us enthusiasts maybe but I'd rather put any cold on hold to enable the people who are suffering from flood damage the chance to sort things out.

Yes will need time here for things to dry out, Like the models this morning, John Hammond BBC Weather saying hints drier weather later next week, To quote The Beatles " Let It Be"

[syed2878]

i hope this high does come about at least then those peeps got the floods will have some chance to dry out, its funny how the met gets a bashing when they dnt forecast cold and snow.

[cerneman]

i hope this high does come about at least then those peeps got the floods will have some chance to dry out, its funny how the met gets a bashing when they dnt forecast cold and snow.

The poor Met office always get a bashing,

[UV-RAY]

There are far too many people who are pinning all their hopes on a SSW event, it appears too many simply think that a SSW event equates to cold in the UK. I feel some are going to be bitterly disappointed if such an event doesn't deliver and maybe some feet need planting firmly on terra nova until we see the models painting a cold picture. Until that time the outlook is anything but wintry and if I was to take a punt I would say February onwards will be our best bet for cold as by then other variables become more favourable for cold.

Edited December 28, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[nanu]

To be honest.. i dont give a damn about the cold, i dont care about this ssw?? just please stop this god damn rain from falling down here!! (cue morecambe and wise ) bring me sunshine..

[cerneman]

To be honest.. i dont give a damn about the cold, i dont care about this ssw?? just please stop this god damn rain from falling down here!! (cue morecambe and wise ) bring me sunshine..

Or there other song " positive thinking" which they sang at close of Christmas special 1977, Feb 78 was snowy.. I do though agree with your point that we need some dry weather, Just hope not ,damp foggy, and yes bring us sunshine Edited December 28, 2012 by cerneman

[Continental Climate]

Im still stunned about how the models have turned in regard to cold, only a few weeks ago we were getting tremendous weather porn and now these charts that we are facing are some of the worst in the internet era!! I bet im not the only one to be in a state of shock either as many of the experts were saying this year had everything going for it!! Just goes to show that the weather will make fools of us all!!

Im with nanu not that interested in this ssw now as i dont think it will be the panacea to our problems!! We shall see!!

Edited December 28, 2012 by Continental Climate

[Bristawl Si]

Patience required.

Some good posts in Strat thread - if that is to be the game-changer then somewhere between 10th and 17th Jan seems to be the period to watch out for.

If this is the case i suspect we're still a few days away from any signs of change showing up in the model output.

[snow freak]

This winter is turning out to be one of the worst for quite a few years. Memories of the snow free years in the early noughties I think. I think we may be in for a long run of mild snowless winters for the next few years. We had our 1o yearly cycle of 'snowy' winters between 2008-2010 (wow all of 3 years) and now we will have to put up with mild rainy winters for the next 8 year or so. Yuk!!!

[BARRY]

This winter is turning out to be one of the worst for quite a few years. Memories of the snow free years in the early noughties I think. I think we may be in for a long run of mild snowless winters for the next few years. We had our 1o yearly cycle of 'snowy' winters between 2008-2010 (wow all of 3 years) and now we will have to put up with mild rainy winters for the next 8 year or so. Yuk!!!

were not even halfway through so don't write it off yet :-)

[Gord]

I thought writing off the rest of this winter was unfounded...but writing off the next 8 as well? That has to be a first!

[snow freak]

let's not fool ourselves. this country has predominantly mild winters, give or take one or two every 10 years which deliver a little more cold and snow than usual. If we are really lucky we may get a day or two of snow this winter in the south, but I refuse my let myself get all excited by some charts which may or may not deliver the goods. It's all very well people saying that snow is more likely in April than it is in December, but a lot of good it is then though as the days are longer, the sun stronger and any snow normally melts by midday. Too little too late in my books.

[Snowmaggedon]

Nobody should really be writing off winter at this stage, especially when we tend to get most of our cold in January and February. I'm sure I read a post from GP a couple of days back who said he didn't expect the charts to get interesting until after the New Year so we must remain patient...

[cerneman]

Every winter has the potential to develope cold/snowy spells, For us here in UK the potiential is often scuppered simply because of our location, December this year proved that, We now move into January and by mid month some potiential will show it self, It may with luck develope in to more than just potential, Look back over past winters and see how many near misses we have had, History only remembers the winners

[snow freak]

That is exactly my point, we have so many 'near misses' that it is pot luck whether we get any decent cold or snow at the best of times. I think we need to remember where we are situated on this little island of ours and our weather will always be mainly on the mild damp side whether we like it or not (I certainly don't). yes, we may get a little snow every now and again, but compared with many other countries in the world, particularly in Europe and America, even when we do get snow, it is nothing compared to other countries annual snowfalls.

[ChartViewer]

That is exactly my point, we have so many 'near misses' that it is pot luck whether we get any decent cold or snow at the best of times. I think we need to remember where we are situated on this little island of ours and our weather will always be mainly on the mild damp side whether we like it or not (I certainly don't). yes, we may get a little snow every now and again, but compared with many other countries in the world, particularly in Europe and America, even when we do get snow, it is nothing compared to other countries annual snowfalls.

Dont worry im confident of a very potent Northerly followed by an Easterly come Jan 15th onwards...............come on