Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[snowblizzard]

Yes, following the last 3 or 4 winters (especially Dec 2010) it did seem like the UK winter pattern was changing to a potentially colder regime!

Jet stream buckling and heading a long way South opening the doors to frequent attacks from the North and East.

But, I think most of us have been fooled by this and mother nature seems to have pressed the 'reset' button!

However, there's still time for a dramatic change back to colder conditions but looking at the models it just seems so unlikely this winter.

We've been spolied recently so even a brief 2/3 day cold spell with a decent dump of snow would satisfy me at the moment though!

Edited December 28, 2012 by snowblizzard

[Peter H]

Dont worry im confident of a very potent Northerly followed by an Easterly come Jan 15th onwards...............come on

Well, I suppose we can all fantasise !

[cerneman]

That is exactly my point, we have so many 'near misses' that it is pot luck whether we get any decent cold or snow at the best of times. I think we need to remember where we are situated on this little island of ours and our weather will always be mainly on the mild damp side whether we like it or not (I certainly don't). yes, we may get a little snow every now and again, but compared with many other countries in the world, particularly in Europe and America, even when we do get snow, it is nothing compared to other countries annual snowfalls.

That's why think we were so lucky to have had couple reasonable cold spells over recent years, I am 64 years old,there have been 12 winters in my life that been classed snowy, That totally from living Midlands and now South coast,

[BARRY]

That's why think we were so lucky to have had couple reasonable cold spells over recent years, I am 64 years old,there have been 12 winters in my life that been classed snowy, That totally from living Midlands and now South coast,

I can count even less living down here

[Peter H]

particularly in Europe

Even Europe's bad at the moment

[snowblizzard]

I'm still hanging onto the theory that 'global warming' and record summer ice melt in the arctic will eventually result in colder winters in UK!

Edited December 28, 2012 by snowblizzard

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hope the GFS 12Z has done the usual progressiveness with Atlantic, I was looking forward to dry days, ECMWF 00Z was good, I expect the 12Z to follow GFS, 4 dry days then wet on 6th

6th Jan wet, should put a bet on that!

[Gord]

We've just had run after run of awfulness for a few days running now. People keep saying the only way is up...not true, sideways is a way as well.

I see the model runs coming out now don't carry any promise either. There's not even any hope anywhere, just day after day of these awful model runs.

But...we are still at the start of winter. An upturn in fortunes will have to start somewhere...I really was hoping it would by now.

Remain optimistic for prospects later this winter...as for the next 2-4 weeks? Dreadful and one of the worst outlooks we've ever had to endure.

[snow freak]

Why can't the bleedin gulf stream just shut down for heaven's sake

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think it's interesting that people are so quick to dismiss the strat but, actually, it does have a big bearing on our weather either way. It's far from the be all and end all but it's certainly one of the key forcing mechanisms in winter and, when coupled with the MJO (which is moving through some awful phases before hopefully getting round to the better areas by mid month) it is really important to monitor the downward propagation of the warming (when it occurs) and how the chips will fall. The outlook at present is poor but that is really to be expected given the background signals. Let's see whether the charts become more interesting in the new year.

Also, I'd hardly call December an unusually poor month for cold: around average temperatures for central England, slightly below average snow for the south and the west but for Scotland both snowfall and temperatures have been markedly below average and in some parts lower than December 2009 was as a whole. I do get the frustration, and last February the roles were reversed in some ways as Scotland saw minimal snow while the east coast of England got plastered in parts, but we've been spoiled by two incredibly cold winters and this, I'm afraid, even for a period of relatively cold winters, is pretty standard for early winter.

[Peter H]

we are still at the start of winter

Well, not really.

In a couple of weeks time we'll be at the halfway stage (the 15th January) and all the models up until then have a distinctly mild feel. Certainly nothing remotely wintry at all, and positively spring like.

Also, I'd hardly call December an unusually poor month for cold

It was around average here at the start of the month i.e some days with a max around 5/6 and a few frosty nights, but that was about it. Absolutely not one flake of snow. The latter end of December has been very mild, particulary last weekend and today. Next week looks mild and settled.

So, with most of Europe now in the mild regime it doesn't look promising. It'll need a radical change to shift this one I'm afraid. When the weather patterns get into this sort of rut that's usually it for the rest of the winter.

Edited December 28, 2012 by Peter H

[Peter H]

Why can't the bleedin gulf stream just shut down for heaven's sake

Indeed, we might get a few decent summers if it did !

[snowray]

People keep saying we are only a little Island surrounded by water and a mild Atlantic, blah, blah, blah...

But it's quite simple really, get a mid lat block in the right place for a while and we can get all the cold and snow in the world, it's just that this hardly ever happens...One thing that prevents us getting much snow though I would say is the fact that most of Southern England in particular is very low, if the SE for example was just 100-200 meters higher it would make all the difference in the world in the many marginal set ups that do turn up..

Look at early December, good example, lots of cold air to our east, just stuck there off the East Coast, wouldn't have taken much for the UK to have got some propper wintry action, but we missed out as we often do, and any snow that did fall was very wet for many.

It's strange that we have to look forward to rare meteorological events like super strat warming to get a snow event similar to those experienced often these days in say Athens or Tel Aviv!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Dec and early Jan were always mild and zonal, no shock really, seas still warm after the summer, its 2nd half of Jan to end March thats changed in the môdern era, but Im still hopeful of it turning cold, mid Jan the time for cold (as always) and according to strat guys

anything before mid Jan always a bonus

[Bristawl Si]

People keep saying we are only a little Island surrounded by water and a mild Atlantic, blah, blah, blah...

But it's quite simple really, get a mid lat block in the right place for a while and we can get all the cold and snow in the world, it's just that this hardly ever happens...

And it "hardly ever happens" because we "are only a little island surrounded by water and a mild atlantic"......simples!

[cerneman]

In the bleak midwinter,,,,,,,,,,,mid to late January, We are surrounded by sea and the Atlantic waiting to pounce, Surprises me that we actually get severe winters

Edited December 28, 2012 by cerneman

[snowray]

And it "hardly ever happens" because we "are only a little island surrounded by water and a mild atlantic"......simples!

So how did the Little Ice Age happen then?>

The Dickens Winters?

Winter such as of 62/63 and other extreme winters prior to around 1990/91?

Etc Etc

Of course we will never be like Russia and thats just as well, but with a block in the right place in Winter we can easily get some of the coldest temps in Western Europe apart from maybe the Alps and deep snow- one advantage of being surrounded by the warm seas!

[Jayces]

First Europe stole our snow, now the US.

Where's our snow!

[Peter H]

Surprises me that we actually get severe winters

We did in the 60's most of the 70's, and much of the 80' but particularly the 60's.

In the 60's you were guarunteed at least one (and usually several) snow events during the winter. If it didn't snow it was cold and frosty, with frosts persisting all day and maximum temperatures of around 0C or even below freezing. I well remember water freezing in a few minutes when I poured it onto a concrete driveway in order to make an ice slide. Or ice on the inside of my bedroom window (long before the days of central heating) and that was outside of 62/63

Even in the 70's/80's it was better, and the winters of 78/79 and 81/82 spring to mind. The only one that's come anywhere close in recent years was 2009/10.

But this is just rubbish. Endless winters with absolutely not one drop of snow and very little frost. It's downright depressing weather too.

Oh, and I forgot to mention the summers were far better as well, but that's another story.

Edited December 28, 2012 by Peter H

[Peter H]

First Europe stole our snow, now the US.

Where's our snow!

The snow's even gone from Europe !

I'm now of the opinion the climate in the UK (and western Europe too) has changed and there's damn all we can do about it.

Edited December 28, 2012 by Peter H

[Gord]

So are we getting a decent frontal passage and some asscoiated squalls this weekend? They can be quite exciting when there's no snow in the offering at this time of year. A decent alternative...nothing wrong with 10 minutes of mayhem!

Seems a long time since we last had a decent squall.

Edited December 28, 2012 by Gord

[LomondSnowstorm]

Well, not really.

In a couple of weeks time we'll be at the halfway stage (the 15th January) and all the models up until then have a distinctly mild feel. Certainly nothing remotely wintry at all, and positively spring like.

It was around average here at the start of the month i.e some days with a max around 5/6 and a few frosty nights, but that was about it. Absolutely not one flake of snow. The latter end of December has been very mild, particulary last weekend and today. Next week looks mild and settled.

So, with most of Europe now in the mild regime it doesn't look promising. It'll need a radical change to shift this one I'm afraid. When the weather patterns get into this sort of rut that's usually it for the rest of the winter.

Fine, it's been pretty rubbish for you, that's fine, but I wouldn't say a relatively mild December in Northern Ireland is such a rare thing, if not exactly inspiring.

I agree that this pattern can repeat and can be tough to dislodge but it has been dislodged, many many times before, and even in the most dire winters we usually get at least a temporary break. Also, I can't think of a much better thing to change such a pattern than an SSW, while it may not work out I would wager anyone to come up with a singular factor which has a better record at pattern changes than that.

Anyway, I'd keep one eye on the lamp post for your location tomorrow night:

[Peter H]

I agree that this pattern can repeat and can be tough to dislodge but it has been dislodged, many many times before

Well, hardly in recent years. The only winter I can think of when it did this was 93/94.

From my experience of weather watching for the last 45 years once it gets into this rut for the winter it's extremely hard to shift.

The problem is much of Europe (and even Scandanavia) is relatively mild now with temperatures well above freezing so where's the cold going to come from ?

I'll be surprised if anything materialises over the next couple of weeks, and once you get past mid February that's basically about.it..

So, basically about 6 or 7 weeks at best for things to change.

It's not looking good.

[SnowObsessor90]

I haven't really followed the models much lately but after just having a quick peak all I can say about the current outlook going into the new year is yuck.... Hopefully it doesn't evolving into the type of set up that simply refuses to budge as to my mind those are the worst synoptic's possible during the winter, worse than zonal even.

[andy100]

burppppppppp burpppppppp