Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[stainesbloke]

good afternoon everyone, well here we go again in the hunt for cold and snow. im hoping for a nice long cold shot but have this bad feeling its going to go wrong.

Me too, really hoping for some decent snow/cold (even a week of it), gut feeling says couple days max though. Have a feeling might see more cold in Feb.

[Peter H]

Me too, really hoping for some decent snow/cold (even a week of it), gut feeling says couple days max though. Have a feeling might see more cold in Feb.

Yep, models for next week are now rubbish, which is a shame. They were very good and looked like something really special for a couple of days.

Oh well, another one gone pear shaped.

[snowstorm445]

Its called fantasy ireland for a reason..anything can happen in 168 hours - especially because of caos theory

im not following you i swear!

Fantasy Ireland? My country is real!

[kent]

History has taught me to never believe in model output unless its 48 hours away. It really is pointless because of the multiple factors coming together to produce the holy grail called snow. Every 4 hours is a different scenario.

[stainesbloke]

Yep, models for next week are now rubbish, which is a shame. They were very good and looked like something really special for a couple of days.

Oh well, another one gone pear shaped.

Not totally conviced by the GFS yet though....might just be hopecasting but the background signals are different to December. If I see snow cover this weekend and it lasts 48 hours then thats miles better than nothing at all

[LomondSnowstorm]

Yep, models for next week are now rubbish, which is a shame. They were very good and looked like something really special for a couple of days.

Oh well, another one gone pear shaped.

One model is now rubbish longer term, the rest still look fine, and that one model is still pretty snowy up to Monday or Tuesday.

[Bogman]

Yep, models for next week are now rubbish, which is a shame. They were very good and looked like something really special for a couple of days.

Oh well, another one gone pear shaped.

Nurse

[snowblues]

Well going by the this evenings ecm plenty of snow on offer for the uk.Cold all the way through.Apart from a balmy -5 upper at one point

[Simon Adams]

Yep, models for next week are now rubbish, which is a shame. They were very good and looked like something really special for a couple of days.

Oh well, another one gone pear shaped.

Taxi!

[ronan]

Nice!!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/20964928

[angel23]

havent been on here in ages what did i miss ohhhh! lol its all looking good so hopefully we will see some good accumulations

[SnowObsessor90]

If this implodes then I'm giving up on this winter, there I said it.

[Bobby]

GFS stubbornly and consistently sticks to its guns. I wonder if the next stage is coming?

[Weather-history]

Get the feeling GFS will be onto something or a less progressive version of it.

[The watcher]

GFS says this tonight:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AN1mntIDwk

[Jan]

Well thats it, cold spell cancelled. News night just on covering tomorrows headlines in the daily rags, -15 snow for 3 or 4 weeks, nothing down for the cold spell now, kiss of death?

[Hodgheg]

He we go again, i do wish i wasnt so obsessed with the weather. everytime something interesting is going to happen i come here, i swear i jinx it though because it always fizzles out. I refrained myself from coming on netweather for the past 3 years and we had 3 good winters. Im not superstitious btw. Rant over

[The watcher]

Well thats it, cold spell cancelled. News night just on covering tomorrows headlines in the daily rags, -15 snow for 3 or 4 weeks, nothing down for the cold spell now, kiss of death?

We all thought the same Jan, would certainly be a typical fare.

[Southender]

Heres a question.

If it were the UKMO, ECM and pretty much every other model suite going showing MILD, with the GFS on its own showing COLD. What side would we plump for?

The answer is obvious. So not sure why I have just post this to be honest!

[The watcher]

I'd plump for Mild, although I don't have a bias. As a man who likes a flutter, playing the percentages is what it is all about. If I was a bookies I'd be placing odds in favor of cold.....It's like Ronnie O Sullivan playing Martin Gould at snooker, you'd expect him to win but if he's not on his game, Gould is capable of beating him.

[tonbridgemole]

Asia and Europe is looking EPIC!!

Edited January 10, 2013 by tonbridgemole

[SnowObsessor90]

Ian Brown may get quite a bit of stick but I'm afraid I'll have to side with him in this instance, for whatever reason no matter how favourable the backgrounds are luck just doesn't seem to be favouring us this winter.

[Fitzwis]

GFS is like a flip flop in a chip shop at the moment. From my observations over the years, whenever a potential cold set up is on the cards, GFS spots the potential in FI, withdraws the idea, reinstates the idea, goes Pete Tong then comes back on board within the 72 hour time frame, especially if all the other models are still predicting cold within the same timeframe. And this is one of those times

GFS - Good @ Forecasting Snow (within the 72hr timeframe)

ECMWF - Exciting Cold Modelling Without Fear

UKMO - U K Modelling Outsider (just kidding)

Next week, the weather will be very cold and snowy, nationwide, guaranteed

Edited January 10, 2013 by Fitzwis

[winterfreak]

So yet another massive watering down from snowmageddon! Laughable really, might as well read a plate of spaghetti as take as gospel the computer models. What a tragic waste of our lives hanging off every model run for what ends up to be a couple of vaguely frosty nights!

[garbagebags]

One thing is for sure, when we do find out what's going on either the ECM or the GFS will be getting kicked firmly to the kerb for the rest of winter.