Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[Timmytour]

I've had enough....flipping models!

[mezzacyclone]

Pretty awful looking 06z GFS this morning for longer term hopes, just blasts away the cold weather and there is so littler northern blocking...putrid run in the longer term.

Iv`e yet to see energy to the North wane?

Observed constant Svaalbard cyclonic activity throughout but it`s definitely confounding times chart/model-wise?

I`m retaining initial thoughts that this is slightly overplayed due to the overall pattern (aforementioned Svaalbard E greenland and Bering seas) and no Siberian transit?

[Liam J]

The weatheronline week ahead forecast has gone with a very cold outlook with potential for severe wintry weather, just to give an idea of the uncertain times ahead the forecast confidence by Wednesday is only 30% and thereafter it falls to 10%.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20130111

[fluid dynamic]

why on earth does anyone take any notice of these models and charts? as far as I can see they are terrible, everything is a week away and when it comes closer it changes and then when it gets closer again it changes again, and then one says one thing and another says another thing, so what is the point? its all guess work so may as well guess without even looking at them ha ha. I just lv how wound up people get about them. the Prozac page is better than anything on the tv lol. my (guess) is snow for parts of uk and nothing for others and then lots of rain as the months go by. howz that? and no summer for anyone in the uk. just a normal year in the uk that is isn't it?

I fully agree, the scatter of results is incredible - hence the record 'shannon entropy' . The resolution of the models and all the precise output completely belies the quality of the analysis in CFD. We have to look at trends and means, nothing else worth looking at. And some of the runs dont even have as much input data as others. All of the errors from T0 compound and run away, far far away into la-la land. Funny to see (some of) the reactions and analysis of single output though. No wonder there are are disagreements on here . Bonkers

[kernowman]

I just don't know wheter to give up now, even with the potential for snow in some parts of the country, again nothing for the far West.

Do enjoy what you get though, build a snowman for me

[Bobby]

My thoughts exactly, I came on to have a catch up before work and all I was reading was the bickering and one liners. Can't these people read the forum rules!! It's like being in a kids playground! Paul and the mods should stop them from posting. Form the look of the amount of posts they have they are all newbies/kids who obviously havn't got a clue about charts etc, grrrrrrrr!!

And mine, almost giving up on that thread.

I just don't know wheter to give up now, even with the potential for snow in some parts of the country, again nothing for the far West.

I think there's a decent chance those in the West will see snow over the coming todays, perhaps lots. Or it could be just heavy rain, we'll soon see.

[UV-RAY]

It's a pointless task of keeping up with what the models are churning out at this moment in time, far too much variation for my liking so it's probably best to sit back, buckle up and enjoy the ride.

[Sara1988]

according to the METO sunday and monday going to be snowy in my area, that will do for me, the rest of the winter can do what it likes, just want to see snow falling, its all i crave lol

[stainesbloke]

according to the METO sunday and monday going to be snowy in my area, that will do for me, the rest of the winter can do what it likes, just want to see snow falling, its all i crave lol

Me too, a few days of cold and snow would be loads better than what we have endured for much of the winter so far.

[kent]

I totally agree with some of the comments on here re. pointless charts. Been a member now for 8 years and history has taught me never believe in anything more than 60-72 hours. I do realise that the sole purpose of this thread is to discuss future charts but some of the posts 7 days away and longer saying wow look at this we are going to be buried and buy a snow shovel now etc border on the ridiculous. Unfortunately a lot of the newer mebers on here hanging on their every word take to be true and are therefore dismayed to say the least when things inevitably change. I am totally convinced that the same people who believe in these long range charts also believed that the world was going to end last 21st Dec.

[Frosty_wsm]

Rubbish outlook for the west at the moment, need to see a westward movement on the models or we'll get nothing but rain and I've seen enough of that this winter already!

[numbnutts]

Rubbish outlook for the west at the moment, need to see a westward movement on the models or we'll get nothing but rain and I've seen enough of that this winter already!

GRAB THE BROLLEY AND ICE SKATES

[Wilxy]

Stonking or Stinking 12Z GFS?

I think the CFS is the most accurate

Middle ground maybe, not a complete backtrack of last run but slightly better block maybe, have to wait and see.

[thesnowman]

GFS backdown appears to have missed quite a few on the thread today...... diluted by 35% from 00Z charts.... upgrade possible but not likely I fear

[Yarmy]

diluted by 35% from 00Z charts

Apologies, 35% of what?

[weathersupremacy]

Massive upgrade regarding snow potential on Monday!

Not just Monday, appears there could be substantial amounts soon after. Massive travel disruption if this all comes off!

Careful for what we wish for guys

[Snowy Liverpool]

This could be another Jan5th 2010, loving the orientation of the fronts, especially the 2nd one.

[rory o gorman]

undercut alert ! finally maybe ireland can get in on this

[weathersupremacy]

Why worry about that???

The economy is messed already, so this may have massive reprucissions for everyone. Though, as a amateur photographer I will be out in the hills taking advantage. I love snow, but mindful of problems it will cause.

[Harsh Climate]

Sorry but this run is right out of the archive of victorian winters.

I think by 144h, skiing would re-open on the pennines!!

[Winter Monsoon]

Hang on a Minute!!!!

Am i seeing a diff 12z the 850's arent as cold as the 6z especially further west you are this might be great for the east and south east but all this talk of epic snow for the "majority" i just dont see??

[Love Snow]

Watching bbc weather it's like the northern half of the uk doesn't exist !!! All south this south that !!! That's my moan

[dec10snow]

Aaarrrggghhhhhhh!!!!!!!! WHY!? I have to be too far west dont I? All the time! The charts are showing mainly rain for me!!! Grrrrrrr... WHY CAN'T I HAVE SOME SNOW!

Rant over

[Bobby]

Hang on a Minute!!!!

Am i seeing a diff 12z the 850's arent as cold as the 6z especially further west you are this might be great for the east and south east but all this talk of epic snow for the "majority" i just dont see??

Yes good for areas further E but mainly rain in the W. But the models are changing so much at just short time frames I find it hard to take them seriously beyond a couple of days at the moment.

So still hope maybe for us in the West.

[Frosty_wsm]

Hang on a Minute!!!!

Am i seeing a diff 12z the 850's arent as cold as the 6z especially further west you are this might be great for the east and south east but all this talk of epic snow for the "majority" i just dont see??

Couldn't agree more and now you have some in the mod thread moaning about imby posts creeping in, well that poster moaning about them would be saying just the same f they were outside the snow zone!

Talk in there about country wide snow event, seems a few have forgotten the south west even exists lol