Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[andy100]

The Londoners or Southeners will be dissapointed when they get 1cm

[pinkertonsurly]

Whilst our weather forecasters hedge their bets over snow within 24 hours, it's a different story in Italy according to La Repubblica:

"Sulla capitale potrebbe nevicare il 18 gennaio a partire dalla tarda mattinata. In particolare i fiocchi cadranno su Roma Nord e Roma Est", ha detto il meteorologo Antonio Sano.

or: "In the capital, it may snow on the 18th of January from late morning onwards. In particular, snow will fall in north and east Rome" said meteorologist Antonio Sano. So, why can't our weather forecasters tell me whether or not it's going to snow in Bicester on Wednesday evening, eh?

[matty40s]

Dont know,but its snowing in Smethwick West Midlands now.

[snowblizzard]

More early morning misery!

Just looked at BBC weather this morning there appears to be a massive downgrade on Mondays expected snow event!

Frontal activity looks much weaker and precipitation now being described as " a little sleet & snow in places"

What the hell has changed to that extent overnight?

[Jan]

Havn't got time to delve into latest charts but it seems the ECM has thrown a wobbly, a few days ago didn't the GFS? So in my way of quick thinking aren't they now equal? i.e this upcoming weather event is going to be half way of what was wanted/expected.

[Number 23]

From a selfish perspective I'm glad the ECM is showing a quick breakdown - means less disruption to travel, more chance of football not being postponed again etc. The last prolonged cold spell we had here was miserable in the end - slush and ice hanging around for days on end, scraping windscreens off over and over morning and evening. Much prefer an interesting frontal snow event then a quick return to normality.

I've watched these forums for a number of years, and anecdotally it seems when one of the big three is markedly at odds with the others on successive runs at 72 - 96, then the outcome is usually the one which advertises a return to normal conditions. I think a notable exception was 2010? If I had to put my mortgage on an outcome, ECM is the safest bet.

[stainesbloke]

From a selfish perspective I'm glad the ECM is showing a quick breakdown - means less disruption to travel, more chance of football not being postponed again etc. The last prolonged cold spell we had here was miserable in the end - slush and ice hanging around for days on end, scraping windscreens off over and over morning and evening. Much prefer an interesting frontal snow event then a quick return to normality.

I've watched these forums for a number of years, and anecdotally it seems when one of the big three is markedly at odds with the others on successive runs at 72 - 96, then the outcome is usually the one which advertises a return to normal conditions. I think a notable exception was 2010? If I had to put my mortgage on an outcome, ECM is the safest bet.

With you regarding a quick breakdown, nothing worse than days of half melted slush and temps hovering just above freezing. Not sure about the ECM though...it may well be a mild outlier, we shall see.

[offerman]

NBC said no snow for frome, just rain today and Monday , to be honest they are right at the moment, it is raining here now but maybe bit of snow later who knows.

Charts look consistent for cold weather for most of next week so that may increase chances of snow from Monday onward. All very choosy though and things change very quickly, that's the nature of the beast in this country.

[Xyplode]

Little change so far still looking at around 12 hours or maybe more of snow for some eastern areas

I had a look at a snow depth chart and we are looking at 9cm by 21:00 in the NE on Monday, 16cm in eastern Scotland, and 11cm in the London area

how much for west midlands?

[swfc]

Wrong , better hights north of us, carbon copy of the ukmo

its actually flattening out and linking up with the azores high.poor run ie 0z

[Tim Bland]

Wrong , better hights north of us, carbon copy of the ukmo

Looks like a sinker to me based on the jet profile I'm afraid

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looks fairly good to me, -8C min temps friday morning, with snow moving in from west, but all FI anyway

[Wilxy]

GFS still looking better than ECM so far so im happy

[Number 23]

Although it's the least reliable of the GFS runs 06z has leaned toward ECM. Now expecting the UKMO/GFS 12z's to adopt ECM's idea for the key period - reckon maybe 70:30? Not looking at the rest of the run as we still can't get agreement for three-five days away!!

[Summer Sun]

This is the Met office's take for things on Monday as of this morning

[snowy weather]

Yes, if that front stalls over the SE with those cold uppers moving in the ppn could well intensify for a few hours.

being in the south east. thats music to my ears

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Didnt GP go for renewed Scandi height build and cold holding on until a brief milder spell around 24th before re load of cold?...This suggests it...

Correct

[Day10]

Good Morning,

A quick question while it's not too busy here..

As regards the Atlantic pushing back in ( albeit in FI ), do the models take into account cold air being entrenched over the UK? I am of the understanding that when cold air is here ( with snowcover as well ) it can be difficult to move??

My apologies for a simple question, and if it's not deemed a model thread worthy please delete mods...

Back under ones rock for another five years..

Paul

PS When at work yesterday (flying from Luton to Barcelona) the tropopause was 36000ft, we were at 38-39000ft and temp was -56. That is considerably warmer than a week ago when it was -69.. Maybe talking rubbish (again) but thought it maybe of interest.

[Love Snow]

During the 2010 Cold spell wasn't the atlantic always predicted to come in by the Models but failed with the cold block been in place? Or is this a diffrent setup completely?

[Roadrunner]

Hopefully this will be some of us in a few days...

http://195.196.36.242/view/view.shtml?id=106&imagePath=/mjpg/video.mjpg&size=1

The old favourite web cam from Sweden! Used to look at this through rubbish winters and dream.

[Summer Sun]

how much for west midlands?

Around 7cm

[Sara1988]

i thought my area was looking good until i checked METO this morning, downgrades from them over next 3/4 days

[Summer Sun]

Latest warning from the Met office for Monday

An area of sleet and snow will come eastwards across England during the early morning, probably becoming light and patchy later in the morning as it slows down over eastern areas. However, later in the day it is expected to intensify again, at the same time turning back to rain in places. Through the day there is the risk of 5 cm accumulations in places, and more than that above 200 m. However, there is greater than average uncertainty at this range, especially in the extent to which snow affects southern counties, and it is quite possible that the Alert will be upgraded to an amber Warning if confidence increases.

[Shezale coventry]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map

Looks to me they are still unsure this looks like going down to the wire

[MR EXTREMES]

That would be crap if it happened Though the BBC use MO data and that doesn't mention rain for anywhere other than Wales/SW England.

i agree crap so id take this forecast with a pinch of salt things are changing by the hour.

id stick with your local forecast people.