Model Mayhem - Moan, Ramp, Go Nuts

[Frosty_wsm]

Well don't know what to say. Fantastic last night but however I knew this would happen. No event tomorw now or Monday according to gfs ESP here in yorks.

Just goes to show that those posters last night on the mod thread who were so bullish about Monday's snow event should have known better than to say that, in this country no snow event is nailed at even 12 hours out, let alone 48 hours.

Big downgrades today and now the nae is also saying no to that second band of snow that was shown to follow the first one, many more changes to come no doubt which just proves my point even more!

[Harsh Climate]

Here's my take on the 12z gfs and ukmo runs this afternoon:

HUGE UPGRADE REGARDING THE LONGEVITY OF THIS COLD SPELL!!

[manutdmatt1986]

Is there are winter moaning thread? Feeling very downbeat after seeing Monday's snow massively downgraded for here (Kent) but don't want to clog up this thread with my moaning.

[sandstorm2]

Getting totally fed up with posters reference to 1947, 1963 etc, thats gone and aint coming back.

SS2

[Met4Cast]

Here's the 12z NMM to cheer us all up

errr

[snowice]

^{well it looks like it will never snow on east coast Ireland miss out again by a few hundred miles?}

[manutdmatt1986]

Only yesterday heavy snowfall looked nailed on for here (Kent) on Monday. Serves me right for being niave!

[lord stratus]

The set-up the GFS shows doesn't seem that unrealistic, eventually the whole PV lobe drops southwards and strengthens the jet somewhat, its not by that large of a margin, its just enough to force us into a milder flow. Its a more plauseable way out of this cold spell than what some of the previous days versions have been suggesting.

UKMO would have this going no where fast!

Out of this cold spell? We are not even in one yet! I'm losing count of how many days that members of this forum have commented on mouth watering charts 5 days out that have still not materialised! Looking at this afternoons charts I can say they are upgrades regarding cold weather, I hope there is agreement from the ECM tonight and in a couple of days we get the easterly for real rather than living it in a virtual reality world like my son does on his Xbox!

[Great Plum]

Astonishing complaints today in here... It's not hit above 4c today here - that's cold in my book... Day 1 today... We are as good as guaranteed very cold weather by every model until Wednesday (day 5) and from the UKMO and gfs until at least next weekend (day - nothing really to get downhearted about...

Re locations - it is so hard to get countrywide snowfall - someone will be unhappy... It is only snow!

[Muffelchen]

Here's the 12z NMM to cheer us all up

errr

Yay! that's me

Anyway more seriously, looks like cold is now here to stay for at least a week so, all in all, good news!

[Summer Sun]

Just saw the beebs forecast my self temperatures OUT WEST begin to recover no word or hint of it turning milder anywhere else

This is how things look later on Monday as band 2 starts to clear away

NE England folk don't worry we get hit TWICE on late sunday and into Monday and again during most of Monday from a prolonged and heavier spell of snow

[UV-RAY]

Going off the precipitation charts it's not looking good for IMBY, luckily these charts are pretty poor most of the time. I just hope us in the West aren't going to see a repeat of February last year, another damp squib would be too much for us.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Bristawl Si]

Just saw the beebs forecast my self temperatures OUT WEST begin to recover no word or hint of it turning milder anywhere else

This is how things look later on Monday as band 2 starts to clear away

NE England folk don't worry we get hit TWICE on late sunday and into Monday and again during most of Monday from a prolonged and heavier spell of snow

Dont u just hate those warm sectors!

Even the SE are doomed! Last night's runs for monday looked so promising.

[Continental Climate]

Going off the precipitation charts it's not looking good for IMBY, luckily these charts are pretty poor most of the time. I just hope us in the West aren't going to see a repeat of February last year, another damp squib would be too much for us.

I'd agree with you there its not looking great for you sadly, looks like you are going to get plenty of cold rain and also zero snow from convection all in all very poor for you guys in the west, us in the east on the other hand.........

[cyclonic happiness]

Great to see the Beeb rampimg the temperatures by a good 4-5'c as per......

[stainesbloke]

Dont u just hate those warm sectors!

Even the SE are doomed! Last night's runs for monday looked so promising.

The runs will change again, Mondays event is very uncertain, there may be lots of snow or hardly any ppn at all. Don't know how people on here seem to know what's going to happen and the folks at the MO are unsure...

[UV-RAY]

I'd agree with you there its not looking great for you sadly, looks like you are going to get plenty of cold rain and also zero snow from convection all in all very poor for you guys in the west, us in the east on the other hand.........

Ha ha, luckily I've had time to look through the charts again and actually things look a lot better than I originally thought. I think the NW will do rather well out of this and hopefully the fronts will stall over us and fizzle out before moving East and Southwards.

[Bristawl Si]

The runs will change again, Mondays event is very uncertain, there may be lots of snow or hardly any ppn at all. Don't know how people on here seem to know what's going to happen and the folks at the MO are unsure...

The trend is not your friend this eve for monday.

Last night there were stories of "the snow crippling everything in the SE".

When will people on here ever learn?

These models are fickle so-and-sos.....bit like the actual weather in the UK!

Edited January 12, 2013 by Bristle boy

[stainesbloke]

The trend is not your friend this eve for monday.

Last night there were stories of "the snow crippling everything in the SE".

When will people on here ever learn?

These models are fickle so-and-sos.....bit like the actual weather in the UK!

I agree that many of the wild claims on here are ridiculous/hysterical (and ive said so). I've been very cautious about this cold spell. My point was that snow is very hard to forecast and we may well see changes up until the event itself on Monday, so best to leave out the IMBY comments.

[Bristawl Si]

I agree that many of the wild claims on here are ridiculous/hysterical (and ive said so). I've been very cautious about this cold spell. My point was that snow is very hard to forecast and we may well see changes up until the event itself on Monday, so best to leave out the IMBY comments.

All true.

My simple take on the situ is we haven't got a classic battleground event, as we havent had the v cold temps in place before the atlantic launches its attack.

[Aaron]

Sorry off topic, but whole forum is fast turning into an absolute farce. Mods need to start banning.

Kitty can scratch, huh?

I'm finding this forum pretty comical of late, in a good way - I'm getting a good laugh from the bickering and trolling, to be honest.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Aaron

[Chief Wiggam]

Met Office saying 8c by end of Monday for the South - it is the blind leading the blindly optimistic on the model discussions - one word "DOWNGRADE"

Edited January 12, 2013 by Chief Wiggam

[Peter H]

All true.

My simple take on the situ is we haven't got a classic battleground event, as we havent had the v cold temps in place before the atlantic launches its attack.

Yep, I would tend to agree. Certainly no snow forecast in this region over the next few days, except over high ground. Nothing more than a few days of rather cold,dry, and frosty weather after that with the mild weather breaking through again at the end of the week so hardly anything memorable.

The latest models aren't looking to promising for anything exceptional long term either, so I don't really know what everyone's getting so excited about.

[Peter H]

The runs will change again, Mondays event is very uncertain, there may be lots of snow or hardly any ppn at all. Don't know how people on here seem to know what's going to happen and the folks at the MO are unsure...

There'll be something on Eskdalemuir, probably.........

Edited January 12, 2013 by Peter H

[cerneman]

Met Office saying 8c by end of Monday for the South - it is the blind leading the blindly optimistic on the model discussions - one word "DOWNGRADE"

Well you might be right, there again you might be wrong, but would suspect somewhere in the middle would be true,