Wales Cymru Cold Spell Regional Discussion

[immortal1969]

Another upgrade from the 12z GFS for Wales. It could be pretty much all snow for many on this run, especially on higher ground. Think the Valleys will get hit hard on this run, if it's right of course (which will change)

Only upgrades so far though.

Rain more like.....light frequent rain.....hope im wrong though

[Marcus_surfer]

I would suggest staying well away from the model thread if you want to see massive ups and downs this evening! Wait till Thursday night and then we will see where we are.

[keithlucky]

Jackone streamer

[foggybrynna]

Any one deff know if theres snow for south wales

[Bobby]

Any one deff know if theres snow for south wales

Not yet but maybe.

GEM gives us lots of snow on Monday, joining the ECM

[keithlucky]

Any one deff know if theres snow for south wales

All i can tell you still light snow for Saturday according to latest GFS outputs Edited January 9, 2013 by keithlucky

[Penfoel]

Hi Guys,

Farmer here trying to plan for the weekend (very near Llangrannog/Brynhoffnant)livestock feeding. Sheep are heavily in lamb. Do I move them closer to home because of the high risk of snow, or risk leaving them undisturbed where they are, as I have a good 4x4 which can cope ( as long as it's not too deep or lasts too long.

Any advice from you seasoned weather watchers gratefully recieved.

[mikeocarroll]

Well conditions have certainly changed - today has been some of the thickest fog in ages, visibility hasn't been above 30m all day (often less), the gloom has been remarkable and temps reached a peak of 4.3c this afternoon. We had an air frost last night for the first time in over a fortnight and with the temp currently 0.1c it should be a cold night tonight.

As for Saturday snow potential, the runs haven't changed that much, it could well be marginal for lowland and especially southern and western parts of Wales (perhaps rain turning to sleet/snow but not settling - could upgrade though) but north and east and higher ground looking like it could get lucky. As I said yesterday we will have a better idea tomorrow eve when it comes within range of the high-res models. Beyond that still very uncertain.

[keithlucky]

Hi Guys,

Farmer here trying to plan for the weekend (very near Llangrannog/Brynhoffnant)livestock feeding. Sheep are heavily in lamb. Do I move them closer to home because of the high risk of snow, or risk leaving them undisturbed where they are, as I have a good 4x4 which can cope ( as long as it's not too deep or lasts too long.

Any advice from you seasoned weather watchers gratefully recieved.

Should watch forum Friday to see how heavy the precipitation will be on the weekend .

[mikeocarroll]

Hi Guys,

Farmer here trying to plan for the weekend (very near Llangrannog/Brynhoffnant)livestock feeding. Sheep are heavily in lamb. Do I move them closer to home because of the high risk of snow, or risk leaving them undisturbed where they are, as I have a good 4x4 which can cope ( as long as it's not too deep or lasts too long.

Any advice from you seasoned weather watchers gratefully recieved.

As far as current models go, unlikely to be any major accumulations that far west and close to the coast, so you should be fine. Could change though, so keep an eye on forecasts.

[keithlucky]

Well conditions have certainly changed - today has been some of the thickest fog in ages, visibility hasn't been above 30m all day (often less), the gloom has been remarkable and temps reached a peak of 4.3c this afternoon. We had an air frost last night for the first time in over a fortnight and with the temp currently 0.1c it should be a cold night tonight.

As for Saturday snow potential, the runs haven't changed that much, it could well be marginal for lowland and especially southern and western parts of Wales (perhaps rain turning to sleet/snow but not settling - could upgrade though) but north and east and higher ground looking like it could get lucky. As I said yesterday we will have a better idea tomorrow eve when it comes within range of the high-res models. Beyond that still very uncertain.

Unlucky Mike we had a beautiful sunny day in Swansea. Edited January 9, 2013 by keithlucky

[ourson]

Well conditions have certainly changed - today has been some of the thickest fog in ages, visibility hasn't been above 30m all day (often less), the gloom has been remarkable and temps reached a peak of 4.3c this afternoon. We had an air frost last night for the first time in over a fortnight and with the temp currently 0.1c it should be a cold night tonight.

As for Saturday snow potential, the runs haven't changed that much, it could well be marginal for lowland and especially southern and western parts of Wales (perhaps rain turning to sleet/snow but not settling - could upgrade though) but north and east and higher ground looking like it could get lucky. As I said yesterday we will have a better idea tomorrow eve when it comes within range of the high-res models. Beyond that still very uncertain.

Where are you Mike? Location not in your blurb.

[Snowmadsam]

As far as current models go, unlikely to be any major accumulations that far west and close to the coast, so you should be fine. Could change though, so keep an eye on forecasts.

I disagree there is loads of potential and hi res models (NAE etc) aren't in range yet...lets wait and see

[keithlucky]

I disagree there is loads of potential and hi res models (NAE etc) aren't in range yet...lets wait and see

Even the local forecast is for sleet or snow Saturday Sunday ,also heavier Snow Monday Tuesday (even in Pembroke) as a very cold easterly develops plenty of potential in these charts . Edited January 9, 2013 by keithlucky

[J10]

In the short term, the event for Saturday, with some snow in places seems likely, and we will await the the Meso models to find out our chance.

Longer term, a very good UKMO tonight and a belter of a GEM. GFS clearly nowhere near as good. Hopefully ECM will be similar to its prevision runs, but nothing set in stone either way, even if the ECM is a belter or like the GFS,

[J10]

Jackone streamer

Pressure would be too high for any showers in that flow. However I would take that, cold and mainly sunny with plenty of potential down the line.

[keithlucky]

Jackone why have names disappeared at bottom of forum?

[Bonjangle]

Jackone why have names disappeared at bottom of forum?

I think its to stop the servers crashing .

Also you will notice where you are from is gone aswell .

[keithlucky]

I think its to stop the servers crashing .

Also you will notice where you are from is gone aswell .

Ty

[soupsurfer7]

Yes someone on model output discussion last night mentioned a few features were temporarily disabled to stop the forum crashing.

[ourson]

I think its to stop the servers crashing .

Also you will notice where you are from is gone aswell .

That's going to be a pain when (or if??) the snow starts falling. It's always a laugh plotting the progress of any snow by the number of emoticons that appear in the posts!

[keithlucky]

Well everything settled ECM on board ,peace and calm ,all happy we wait now for a Radar come Lampost watching weekend ahead.

[foggybrynna]

Guys HTV Wales weather still say we having rain are they looking at diff charts

Guys HTV Wales weather still say we having rain are they looking at diff charts

[FROZENFOOT]

just seen on forum that it is an easterly and that wales will miss out on the snow , do you think this is true and that we will just have rain instead.?

[J10]

Jackone why have names disappeared at bottom of forum?

It's a resource thing, as you can imagine it is very busy on here at the moment and by reducing this information, it should help keep the forum online at times of peak demand.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Jackone