Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[john w]

Eurgh horrble model watching at mo. Rain will be the prob. Fi is probably at about day 6 or so i would suggest not at 48 hrs...model swings from mild to cold will always be harder in our neck of the woods due to simple energy amd weather physics that drive global weather sadly.

Bit worried about the model tendancy to keep throwing uncle barty in the mix. Imo we are locked in to this pattern for some.time. there may be cold incursions but at the moment we cant have a block sustain itself without then helpnof greeny and greeny aint playing ball.

[AWD]

Met office warning extended to include most of Dorset,

Thanks. This could yet get extended further I think.

Just for fun, its not often you see Lapse rates at 500hpa like this;

Would be fun with a bit of humidity, sheer & cape in the summer. Just goes to help show the temperature gradient in the troposphere over the UK in the coming days.

[cerneman]

Should think there be no drought issues next spring, water table topped up

[AWD]

Torrential downpour here now. Surface water galore.

[fergieweather]

Seems to be a fair bit of uncertainty with rain totals after Wednesday, with some models i.e the GFS going for another feature bringing heavy rain Wednesday night that could be problematic, but others including the Met Office/BBC forecasts at the moment going for just the one band going through on Wednesday. Not sure which will happen at the moment.

GFS prog for the wave development into W/SW considered low probability currently. Lower theta-w's in the new NAE run for Weds and net result is less rainfall for some areas (e.g., Bristol) and current areal scope of yellow warning still looks valid, but will be kept under review. Meanwhile, 12z UKMO-GM develops a rather

flat wave running up and clipping across the far SE and in doing so, tends to hinder any prompt clearance early on Thursday.

Edited December 17, 2012 by fergieweather

[Polar Bear]

Not good;

. When the hell is that for? And where is the uk? ...awful...

[AWD]

. When the hell is that for? And where is the uk? ...awful...

GFS accumulated rainfall totals between now & Sunday.

Thankfully, the model is in its own with regard to such high totals currently. Hopefully the totals will lessen somewhat.

[cerneman]

. When the hell is that for? And where is the uk? ...awful...

Unfortunatly can make out uk on chart, My location directly under purple blob, What it be wednesday 19/12 chart? Edited December 17, 2012 by cerneman

[Polar Bear]

Unfortunatly can make out uk on chart, My location directly under purple blob, What it be wednesday 19/12 chart?

. No. That looks evil. Hope the model has cooked it up a bit for sure. Just not what the south west needs..

[Snow shut work]

Oh hello.....someones spotted a trend a week away in the MOD. A WEEK.......post those snow risk charts at t36 not T168.

Just accept it, we're in for an unseasonal horrid period.

Central heating only on for an hour a day now.....and thats too much.

[AWD]

Cool but dry here this morning, with the sun rising into some high level cloud.

Temperature currently 4.1c

Not so good tomorrow. Will see what's in store for us down here a bit later as a little busy currently.

[Dorsetbred]

A fresh 3.2°C down here this morning, a passing shower recently to our east.

The rest of this week certainly has a wet look about it.

[AWD]

The NAE shows the rainfall coming into Cornwall & Devon this time tomorrow:

Reaching most of the South West by lunchtime;

The heaviest rain is currently being shown for Cornwall, Devon, Dorset & Hampshire. Areas further north, whilst still rather wet, look like escaping the heaviest downpours.

Interestingly, the rainfall intensity increases later on in the day over Hampshire & the South Coast towards Brighton. Could cause a few problems down this way;

Total accumulations by dawn Thursday look rather worrying for large areas of Southern England however, with upto 30mm quite widely south of the M4, 20mm north of the M4 and over Cornwall & Devon widely 40mm & locally upto 55mm so definetly one to watch.

[AWD]

The GFS continues to want to send us underwater by Christmas, with totals reaching 100mm + in some areas of the SW by the big day;

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=108&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=

The stratosphere warming forecasts continue to look impressive over the next couple of weeks too. A brilliant post by Matt Hugo in the Strat thread is sure worth a read and sums up my thoughts exactly.

EDIT - Should add that the 100mm is accumulated up until Christmas Day, and not all at once. lol.

Edited December 18, 2012 by AWD

[ARTDEMOLE]

6c. Clear and sunny....But not good news for the unfestive season...

[Mapantz]

Need the rain here, it's becoming a bit parched.

[Evening thunder]

Need the rain here, it's becoming a bit parched.

Same here, the roads might have developed dry patches by the end of today.

[AWD]

Forget snow for the foreseeable, I fear rainfall & flooding will be the talking point over the Christmas period.

With cold, sub 528DAM air to the North East of the UK and mild 546DAM air to the South West of the UK, the UK is sandwiched between two very different air masses, which will collide & bring intense rainfall. The South West looks like being a high target too.

You can see here on Thursdays FAX the two different air masses, with a large low pressure system bringing many different fronts & troughs up over the South West;

More rainfall forecast over the weekend. This is the GFS accumulated rainfall totals by Saturday;

And by the end of the weekend;

Saturdays FAX chart has numerous fronts & troughs across the South West, as the low pressure system makes in roads east, into the UK;

Certainly what none of us want at any time of the year, especially on the run up to Christmas, but unfortunetly we can't choose the weather, it will do whatever it wants to do. Keep an eye on the forecast over the next week or so, as the rainfall projections have the potential to impact our day to day regimes.

Thanks.

Edited December 18, 2012 by AWD

[fergieweather]

The worrying wave development later Weds eve into Thurs AM currently given 20-30% probability until sight of 12z runs: based on those, a decision will be made re possible amber upgrade as scope v similar to what happened on 20-21 Nov. Let's hope models back down. Meanwhile, weekend looks equally troubling.

[Coast]

NMM early charts at T-48hrs are dire for you guys in the SW:

:ph34r:

[Mapantz]

I see more yellow warnings have been issued, as you said Ian, it wouldn't surprise me if an Amber one get's issued.

[AWD]

Current weather warnings/advisories for South West England;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/sw_forecast_warnings.html

[Coast]

GFS general accumulation overview for Thursday:

[Bumpkin]

I'm not bothered about looking for cold, all i want for Christmas is a good long dry spell, so tired of the rain. I feel like an ogre living in a swamp.

[divadee]

I see more rain is on the way. Just what we need!

A nice cold dry spell wouldn't go a miss in the south west. And then some lovely white stuff in the new year!