Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[AWD]

It's gone quite cold here again now. Just wearing a T-shirt and a coat but the temperature has definetly dropped here.

At school picking up the kid so can't check officially.

[Andy Bown]

Some very heavy if not torrential rain moving up through somerset & dorset towards wilts, very bright echoes on radar, this has the potential for some flash flooding considering saturated fields etc etc

If you get in the Swindon area like what's happened in Warminster then you're in for a very rough half hour or so, it was worse and longer lasting than the most recent squall lines!

[AWD]

Temperature has dropped quite rapidly over the last hour or so.

Now 6.9c

Edited December 14, 2012 by AWD

[A.J]

If you get in the Swindon area like what's happened in Warminster then you're in for a very rough half hour or so, it was worse and longer lasting than the most recent squall lines!

We've got it now Andy, just in time for picking the kids up from school....and, we've just got back home and the school is flooded!...literally rivers of water running down the roads and banks, rainfall of tropical intensity!

[AWD]

Looks like a cloudy, dull but relatively mild weekend coming up with most of the shower activity restricted to coasts;

Although some pleasent sunshine could break up the cloud in Hampshire, Dorset & South Somerset later on Sunday;

[Sainsbo]

Just had to walk home, and it ws torrential in Swindon. 12mm so far, most in the last 45 mins alone. There has also been a 20mb pressure drop in the last 10 hours!

Edited December 14, 2012 by Sainsbo

[WhiteFox]

Just had to walk home, and it ws torrential in Swindon. 12mm so far, most in the last 45 mins alone. There has also been a 20mb pressure drop in the last 10 hours!

Yes, I've been watching an intense PPN echo on the radar for the past couple of hours; initially it was heading NNE, but as it reached the M4, it started heading more ENE. Looking at the cloud direction at the moment, this is backed up. Earlier the flow seemed to be almost direct S, now it's WSW, so the main system appears to have changed course somewhat.

[Mapantz]

18.4mm here in the end. It went up considerably just after midday - 7mm fell in around 40 minutes.

[offerman]

Not sure what totals we have had here in Frome but we had a continued deluge this afternoon. Torrential rain and when i checked the radar there were 2 bands of bright blue echos that passed over us. Will be interesting to see the wettest place today but hope the recent flood victims didn`t get to much.

[fromey]

evening all.

anybody who lives in and around frome, iron mill lane, coal ash lane are flooded, very deep in places

fromey

[cerneman]

Not too bad today, but river did rise quickly, Wind dropped now and dry evening, Hope Frome area water subsided,,,,,

[MP-R]

Don't think I've seen a chart like this very often: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.png

A generally unfavourable appearance to the north but with a favourable wind direction.

[teeno]

We have just had a heavy hail shower down here. The local quay flooded with the rain earlier to day.

Edited December 14, 2012 by teeno

[Dorsetbred]

Lots of local flooding in the area, from Swanage through to Christchurch, no surprise really pressure sure did drop, which is the main cause of the flooding around here.

The local paper has a collection of images here http://www.bournemou...ovember_floods/

It's pity that they are NOT clever enough to figure the month is December and NOT November, doh!

Edited December 14, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[noggin]

Boring sort of weather here today.........a bit of rain, a bit of wind, mildish. Zzzzzzzzzzzz.

[khodds]

Haven't checked the rain guage yet but don't think we had a huge amount, however, the roads were bad going to my parents earlier. Stars however looked AMAZING. You forget what a little bit of light pollution does. I want to move back home!

[Costa Del Fal]

After a morning of torrential rain and gusty winds, the afternoon has been mild with some sunny skies and convective skies and one torrential downpour around 1.30pm. This is my last day here in beautiful Falmouth until a months time. Its been a most enjoyable Autumn here, even better when you can get outside and its still pretty mild when elsewhere is rock solid frozen!

[Mark Parsons]

Morning all, there is going to be some major wrist slashing on the model thread today. Heights are forecast to rise over Europe by Xmas which could spell disaster, but, will it actually happen?? This would require the block to retreat and decay which is not really supported by other factors, i.e. warming strat, displaced PV ect not to say it can't happen but less likely at the mo given the current circumstances.

As i always say patience is required, we will have to suffer this mild much prob for at least another 10 days!!!

[Mark Parsons]

Where are you all??? Oh well will look back laters.

[khodds]

I know.. Its soooo quiet!

[Sungirl]

10.6c and sunny here!

[gottolovethisweather]

Blimey only 7.9c just up the road from Sungirl but it could reach the dizzy heights of a double-figure celcius Maximum for me too. I pray, that this particular scenario isn't the ongoing trend for a number of weeks. In reality, of course it won't be, just don't mention the S word for a while because if you do, it might get scared off for a long time to come. Regarding the Stratospheric references mentioned in a previous post, I don't have enough knowledge about such topics but I do know that there is a lag effect for said events to filter through to us on the ground and even then we could dodge the bullet and land on the wrong side for cold synoptics. I believe AWD lurks in there from time to time and maybe able to guide us in the right direction.

For now, in spite of it being relatively mild, it is a nice sunny dry day where I am currently, so we can but be grateful for that.

Incidentally, there is word of FI still being around next Tuesday, so it seems my post from a couple of days ago proves we're not much further forward yet in knowing what the period from the 20th to the 25th will be.

Edited December 15, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Mark Parsons]

Blimey only 7.9c just up the road from Sungirl but it could reach the dizzy heights of a double-figure celcius Maximum for me too. I pray, that this particular scenario isn't the ongoing trend for a number of weeks. In reality, of course it won't be, just don't mention the S word for a while because if you do, it might get scared off for a long time to come. Regarding the Stratospheric references mentioned in a previous post, I don't have enough knowledge about such topics but I do know that there is a lag effect for said events to filter through to us on the ground and even then we could dodge the bullet and land on the wrong side for cold synoptics. I believe AWD lurks in there from time to time and maybe able to guide us in the right direction.

For now, in spite of it being relatively mild, it is a nice sunny dry day where I am currently, so we can but be grateful for that.

Incidentally, there is word of FI still being around next Tuesday, so it seems my post from a couple of days ago proves we're not much further forward yet in knowing what the period from the 20th to the 25th will be.

Blimey only 7.9c just up the road from Sungirl but it could reach the dizzy heights of a double-figure celcius Maximum for me too. I pray, that this particular scenario isn't the ongoing trend for a number of weeks. In reality, of course it won't be, just don't mention the S word for a while because if you do, it might get scared off for a long time to come. Regarding the Stratospheric references mentioned in a previous post, I don't have enough knowledge about such topics but I do know that there is a lag effect for said events to filter through to us on the ground and even then we could dodge the bullet and land on the wrong side for cold synoptics. I believe AWD lurks in there from time to time and maybe able to guide us in the right direction.

For now, in spite of it being relatively mild, it is a nice sunny dry day where I am currently, so we can but be grateful for that.

Incidentally, there is word of FI still being around next Tuesday, so it seems my post from a couple of days ago proves we're not much further forward yet in knowing what the period from the 20th to the 25th will be.

With the warming stratoshere for example we have better odds for blocking than with out it but as you quite rightly say it's not a foregone conclusion that cold will result and there is a time lag of 4-6 weeks for the effects to reach the ground. The split PV is often good for helping the blocking to occur. So all in all imo we are on the right side of 50% for wintery weather to return in the next few weeks.

[AWD]

The next few days actually look relatively dry & mild with a fair amount of sunshine around the region.

Aside from some showers, Wednesday looks like the next day with meaningful rainfall.

[-uksnow-]

With the warming stratoshere for example we have better odds for blocking than with out it but as you quite rightly say it's not a foregone conclusion that cold will result and there is a time lag of 4-6 weeks for the effects to reach the ground. The split PV is often good for helping the blocking to occur. So all in all imo we are on the right side of 50% for wintery weather to return in the next few weeks.

I may be wrong here, but i was fairly sure the effects of the strat changes or an SSW would only take 20-25 days to reach us, which is more 3-4 weeks?