Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -18z 17/12/12

[Ruzzi]

well i dont see many good prospects for the rest of winter just now but we will wait and see what develops with the models over the next week.

i'm not feeling to good about the strat today either having read a couple of posts in there today but hopefully it can all come good for some serious cold.

What develops on the models over the next week has no relevance whatsoever to what happens during the rest of winter... Cold can appear from nowhere, especially with the current NH set-up and as long as this continues, no-one can be sure what happens beyond 5-6 days at the moment at a push, never mind the remaining 10 weeks of 'winter'.. or 15 weeks if you include march. Lets take the models 2-3 days at a time for now, beyond that at the moment is anyone's GUESS.

[mcweather]

Unfortunately no man is a messiah, you speak of GPs forecast as if it is tangible. It is just a mildly educated guess, with a little bit but not much more merit than any other poster on here.

Ah the impatience of youth.

I,m sure GP will be delighted to know that his in depth knowledge of Meteorology and the workings of the atmosphere amounts to being mildly educated.

I think it is perhaps best to let winter pass before we draw a judgement on GP'S winter forecast. No one thinks GP is a messiah but because he has a very good record we give his ideas a good deal of credence. Bearing in mind that his forecast mentioned that mid January to early feb was for the coldest spell of the winter perhaps you would be good enough to let that period pass before passing judgement on the merits of his 'mildly educated guess'

Edited December 20, 2012 by mcweather

[Frosty.]

The good news from the gfs 06z is it's not going to be a mild christmas, indeed for most of the uk away from the far south it looks cold and there could be some snow for the hills in scotland, from boxing day,colder air tries to push south but it's a struggle as more lows are moving in from the west and cutting it off but it has more success towards the end of the month. I have a feeling the 6z will be fairly close to reality, We just have to get rid of all the current wet and windy weather but the period from saturday to christmas eve looks very wet and fairly windy however by xmas day it looks like we have lost the worst of it (apart from sw britain) and a quieter cooler cyclonic day with lighter winds and just a scattering of showers (wintry on hills) with sunny spells and then cold enough for an overnight frost where skies clear. Then temps returning to average with more spells of very unsettled weather in the run up to the new year and beyond.I have to say the latest met office update is a real damp squib for cold fans apart from that colder more showery interlude on christmas day and boxing day, temps then returning to average or even mild afterwards with no hints of any cold weather in January.

The latest meto update should come with a government warning as it will hurt cold fans, a very painful update to read as far as longer term prospects go.

Edited December 20, 2012 by Frosty039

[MisfitDog3]

I think those looking for cold will have to snatch the odd day or two here and there for the time being. The conveyor belt rolls on and those meaty Lows aren't going to stop rolling across the Atlantic any time soon....January may deliver something different, which for the benefit of walking the dog I can only hope for. There's only so much mud my trousers can take.

[Buriedundersnow]

I think those looking for cold will have to snatch the odd day or two here and there for the time being. The conveyor belt rolls on and those meaty Lows aren't going to stop rolling across the Atlantic any time soon....January may deliver something different, which for the benefit of walking the dog I can only hope for. There's only so much mud my trousers can take.

never mind the mud the way things look it could be boarding a boat from the top window to go out anywhere

[Frosty.]

I think those looking for cold will have to snatch the odd day or two here and there for the time being. The conveyor belt rolls on and those meaty Lows aren't going to stop rolling across the Atlantic any time soon....January may deliver something different, which for the benefit of walking the dog I can only hope for. There's only so much mud my trousers can take.

There is no signal for cold in january according to the experts, not even a weak signal. All we have is blind hope and delusion going forwards apart from a few more seasonal days around the middle of next week, sad innit.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

There is no signal for cold in january according to the experts, not even a weak signal. All we have is blind hope and delusion going forwards apart from a few more seasonal days around the middle of next week, sad innit.

This place thrives on blind hope

[Frosty.]

This place thrives on blind hope

HAHA so true it hurts lol

I was hoping after a few days away from the models that there might have been a christmas miracle but quite the opposite, the models look awful for cold weather for as far ahead as we can see.

Edited December 20, 2012 by Frosty039

[mcweather]

There is no signal for cold in january according to the experts, not even a weak signal. All we have is blind hope and delusion going forwards apart from a few more seasonal days around the middle of next week, sad innit.

JFF

No signals for cold in January on these either frosty

http://www.wetterzen...00119470115.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119621221.gif

look at those heights over Iberia.

low after low queued up in the atlantic

Russian high stalling fronts over the uk

kind of reminds me of something just can't think what it is.

Edited December 20, 2012 by mcweather

[chris78]

I think those looking for cold will have to snatch the odd day or two here and there for the time being. The conveyor belt rolls on and those meaty Lows aren't going to stop rolling across the Atlantic any time soon....January may deliver something different, which for the benefit of walking the dog I can only hope for. There's only so much mud my trousers can take.

never mind the mud the way things look it could be boarding a boat from the top window to go out anywhere

There is no signal for cold in january according to the experts, not even a weak signal. All we have is blind hope and delusion going forwards apart from a few more seasonal days around the middle of next week, sad innit.

HAHA so true it hurts lol

I was hoping after a few days away from the models that there might have been a christmas miracle but quite the opposite, the models look awful for cold weather for as far ahead as we can see.

.........oh dear, not even a straw clutch?

[cheeky_monkey]

JFF

No signals for cold in January on these either frosty

http://www.wetterzen...00119470115.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119621221.gif

look at those heights over Iberia.

low after low queued up in the atlantic

Russian high stalling fronts over the uk

kind of reminds me of something just can't think what it is.

always makes me smile when charts form 47 and 62/63 are rolled out in these situations...straw clutching at its finest

[Frosty.]

JFF

No signals for cold in January on these either frosty

http://www.wetterzen...00119470115.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00119621221.gif

look at those heights over Iberia.

low after low queued up in the atlantic

Russian high stalling fronts over the uk

kind of reminds me of something just can't think what it is.

Yes good point, things can change and the experts are only going on what the models show today, there is always tomorrow.

[Eskimo]

I would rather have blind hope than simply say, "There's no hope in January" Based on no scientific evidence to back up your point, in other words...How could you possibly know?

Remember when it took the Metoffice in 2010 to say "It may turn colder" just 10 days before we saw the coldest December on record?

Edited December 20, 2012 by PerfectStorm

[Frosty.]

.........oh dear, not even a straw clutch?

Maybe by the 12z

[stainesbloke]

I think those looking for cold will have to snatch the odd day or two here and there for the time being. The conveyor belt rolls on and those meaty Lows aren't going to stop rolling across the Atlantic any time soon....January may deliver something different, which for the benefit of walking the dog I can only hope for. There's only so much mud my trousers can take.

Then stay on the pavement or wear wellies, problem sorted

[stainesbloke]

well i dont see many good prospects for the rest of winter just now but we will wait and see what develops with the models over the next week.

i'm not feeling to good about the strat today either having read a couple of posts in there today but hopefully it can all come good for some serious cold.

The next 5 or so days look mild, after that its anyone's guess, I don't think writing off the next two and a half months is being very realistic. We usually get our coldest weather in late Jan and Feb. I'd be very surprised if this winter was mild and wet all the way through.

[LomondSnowstorm]

There is no signal for cold in january according to the experts, not even a weak signal. All we have is blind hope and delusion going forwards apart from a few more seasonal days around the middle of next week, sad innit.

I wouldn't say that, I mean we've got a potential cold snap Boxing Day onwards and after that it looks like staying cyclonic but not particularly mild into the start of the New Year. The AO and NAO are set to turn negative by that point, we're starting to see charts where the stratospheric vortex is on its last legs and there are signs that the MJO is set to move to phases 7-8 with an increase in amplitude. None of these things are certain by any means but there is still a good case to be made for a significant cold spell in January.

[snowmadchrisuk]

I love it when you lot get like this ...... As soon as you start writing the whole of January off the Models usually pick up on something big on the next run .... As of last night the Strat was warming nicely , that doesn't just stop over night ..... High pressure get's in to the right place and bang you have a looming Cold Spell , and looking at the PV at the current time , that could happen at any time ....

Edited December 20, 2012 by snowmadchrisuk

[Frosty.]

I wouldn't say that, I mean we've got a potential cold snap Boxing Day onwards and after that it looks like staying cyclonic but not particularly mild into the start of the New Year. The AO and NAO are set to turn negative by that point, we're starting to see charts where the stratospheric vortex is on its last legs and there are signs that the MJO is set to move to phases 7-8 with an increase in amplitude. None of these things are certain by any means but there is still a good case to be made for a significant cold spell in January.

I was only going by what the met office experts are saying beyond boxing day, as far as they are concerned that's it for cold weather after the 26th.

The Ecm 00z shows some polar maritime air over the uk on boxing day and remaining chilly even by thursday but then the pattern becomes flatter with temps returning closer to average, cold air flirting with the far north of scotland for most of next week though, as for this weeks undercut, northeast scotland gets it, especially tomorrow and saturday with snow on hills but heavy rain on low ground.

Edited December 20, 2012 by Frosty039

[NL]

There is no signal for cold in january according to the experts, not even a weak signal. All we have is blind hope and delusion going forwards apart from a few more seasonal days around the middle of next week, sad innit.

The same experts who forecasted a BBQ summer.!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

There are no experts past day 10 in my opinion.

[Robbie Garrett]

Interesting fax chart for Xmas eve, I reckon if the energy is right and heads further south east towards new years eve, bingo...

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVO89.png

[cheeky_monkey]

The same experts who forecasted a BBQ summer.!!

Didn't this very site predict a summer with shades of 1976 very recently?

[MisfitDog3]

Got wellies! The mud is beyond wellie stage on all fronts!

[snowmadchrisuk]

The same experts who forecasted a BBQ summer.!!

And a drought during what will probably be the wettest year on record lol ......i find Met Office forecasts are usually based on what the Computer Models are currently showing , (which is fair enough) But when the Models change the Met office do , in November they had December down as being well below average in all areas ........

Just to highlight , this forecast was pretty much the same for the last 10 days of November , but look how quickly they changed..

UK Outlook for Thursday 13 Dec 2012 to Thursday 27 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. However, there are signs that north or north easterly winds may be quite frequent across the UK. So, on balance, colder than average conditions are likely to continue, with a risk of frost and fog, and an increased risk of some snow in places.

Updated: 1138 on Wed 28 Nov 2012

Edited December 20, 2012 by snowmadchrisuk