Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 03/01/13

[Bristawl Si]

Well it's failing it's first test. Cold spell moving forward with each run. It's staying at the same time period overall. If ECM doesn't jump aboard tonight the feeling I get it's one those prolonged teases GFS likes to put out ever so often.

So you're placing more faith in computer models than some sharp insight from a MetO source?

[Panayiotis]

One thing that I have noticed is the amount of colder members going pass the -5C upper line, has increased from yesterday, but as many have suggested we are still far from a solution, hopefully the ECM can come on board with the GFS!

Edit:Just found a massive spider in my room, must mean something cold is coming

Edited January 4, 2013 by Panayiotis

[SnowObsessor90]

Regarding the ECM remember when it showed spectacular synoptic's only for it to implode immediately after? so wouldn't too disheartened if it doesn't end up showing much.

[bluearmy]

I think the 12z gefs are decent. granted that they are unlikely to answer the questions. they just show the various solutions and would be a brave call to say any of them are not possible. however, if we are to assume that we wont see a strong eastern canadian/newfoundland vortex, then most of less appealing runs are dispensed with. if we do see a strong vortex in that area, then it would seem that the SSW hasnt propogated or we got very unlucky. there#s always wave 2 or three to look forward to.

i wonder if ecm is going to flip to more blocked or just meander slowly to a blocked scenario sometime after mid month ? i'll go for the latter as it seems to have little appetite for the former. what i would say is that the ens have churned out some real bone chillers (in the minority) and yet the op hasnt visited them. you would expect it to pick this option at some point, if only for entertainment value.

[russell k]

One thing that I have noticed is the amount of colder members going pass the -5C upper line, has increased from yesterday, but as many have suggested we are still far from a solution, hopefully the ECM can come on board with the GFS!

Edit:Just found a massive spider in my room, must mean something cold is coming

I think FI for blocking in the north is around T120. Reyjavic pressure ens. !!

[chris55]

Great thread tonight, just read through, some excellent posts!!! (alongside the not so excellent!)

Exciting model watching.

[ChartViewer]

BOM at T144....Becoming a model i like to follow.....

T162

T180..

T204 ridging into greenland?

T228

Again potential

Edited January 4, 2013 by ChartViewer

[on the coast]

Well ECM at 144 should tell a tale. Looking like going the way of the 0z? Suppose 96 is max at moment though.

[cooling climate]

More and more members showing a big -AO pattern developing and the ones that

show no cold scenario do not even seem to acknowledge the stratosphere warming.

Therefore those members can safely be ignored I think.

The move towards cold has greatly increased and will probably keep doing so

from now on I would have thought.

[Weathizard]

Only looking on my phone but it thought this run looked more like the GFS at 120?

[chionomaniac]

More and more members showing a big -AO pattern developing and the ones that

show no cold scenario do not even seem to acknowledge the stratosphere warming.

Therefore those members can safely be ignored I think.

The move towards cold has greatly increased and will probably keep doing so

from now on I would have thought.

I noticed that and thought the same, cc. If you ignore the disconnected runs then those ensembles are very impressive indeed.

[Ian Brown]

ECM following it's early run and looking at the T144, zonal going forward !

[Panayiotis]

Ecm not buying into the GFS at 144hrs, it seems it wants to flatten things out..

[The Eagle]

I noticed that and thought the same, cc. If you ignore the disconnected runs then those ensembles are very impressive indeed.

Should we ignore the ECM as well while we are at it? And the UKMO? I have a suspicion a lot posters are being set up for the biggest fall whether it's next week or mid January.

[bluearmy]

ECM following it's early run and looking at the T144, zonal going forward !

yep - it really doesnt want to know about digging the trough to the west at all. it is 300 miles west of yesterdays 12z run at day 6 but the flip side is the 'ridge' it throws is more positively tilted than yesterday and that run went nowhere in any case. you surely cannot seriously discount the best verifying models at days 5 and 6 (ecm/ukmo) in favour of gfs. hence, to expect a quick route to anything proper cold before mid month is probably asking too much at the moment. i accept the nwp may not cope too well with the dynamics of any propogation but to believe that the consistent day 5 ecm outptut is going to flip is asking too much of me. cant see how you get from that day 6 chart to cold within 5 days, hence my comment.

[ITSY]

Lets be clear: nothing is certain or even likely at this stage. the most we have is a less flat UKMO, 50% of blocked GFS ens and a relatively flat ECM. But this is early days, its only the 4th Jan, and we're talking about changes that may not happen to the last third of the month. Still plenty of time for this to pan out nicely, as well as go wrong. Patience

[Panayiotis]

Yes at 168hrs the ECM isnt looking too good for us, with a zonal look to it, but hopefully the ridge to the west can ridge north, saving us from a dire outlook?

[russell k]

Looking at the pressure ens for Reyjavic and Oslo. IMO the models (as suggested) dont have a clue beyond T120

[nick sussex]

There are large differences across the USA between the GFS and ECM/UKMO as early as 120hrs which goes some way to explaining the impact on low heights near Greenland.

The ECM 168hrs however looks rather unusual but a little interesting, I think we best wait for the 192hrs before hitting the speed dial to the Samaritans!

[Weathizard]

Why is it always GFS vs ECM? Never seem to agree! I have to say though head backs ECM, heart obviously backs GFS!

[on the coast]

Well out in FI but 192 and it starts to look promising. Many changes to come before this though.

[weather eater]

Gotham CIty had the batsignal to signal the Dark Knight.

We now need to signal the Dark Knight of this forum - Mr Ferguson - for his peals of wisdom with relations to tonight's model output and where everything stands after the developments or lack of so far.

I think you will find he dispensed them earlier but very few people seem to want to listen, they just rather get hung-up or over excited by every run.

[Timmytour]

Edit:Just found a massive spider in my room, must mean something cold is coming

Don't forget the extraordinary number of red berries left... untouched during the brief cold spell in December as if they needed to be saved for something more substantial

[SnowBallz]

Gotham CIty had the batsignal to signal the Dark Knight.

We now need to signal the Dark Knight of this forum - Mr Ferguson - for his peals of wisdom with relations to tonight's model output and where everything stands after the developments or lack of so far.

What, to come and reitterate what he's been saying for the last couple of days, ie: do not place so much faith in, and give attention to, the current NWP output?

[ChartViewer]

ECM192 has potential as NS called just now