Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 03/01/13

[DAVID SNOW]

I'm still digging around for the rest so will report back but with a negative AO if the central/eastern USA is warm thats a good sign for us because it means the blocking isn't favouring the USA.

Nothing against the USA but they've had snow we want ours!!!

Eastern USA Feb 1991, how warm was that...

[johnholmes]

This chart @ 216hrs gives me massive confidence in the chances of a high pressure led Easterly. This model and pressure composite picked up on the potential for SW incursions, when the GFS and ECM went for a full on easterly in early/mid Dec 2012, so to get this particular suite of this model on board is key to a solid trend. Believe me.

it is an important part of the jigsaw but perhaps the NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 along with the ECMWF-GFS 10 day outlooks are at least as important. I have no data check on NAEFS but have on the other two and unless the NOAA output tonight shows less than the pattern type of the last 2 days then I would up my belief in cold from 80% to 90% within the 14 day time frame and possibly less than that. NAEFS has become more definite over the past 3 days with the idea of a blocking pattern. In my view its inception for direction is still not clear but somewhere, at 500mb, between NW and NE.

And both 6-10 and 8-14 continue with the developing +ve area and ridge, so I have to go to 90%

I made this rough note after checking more closely

It continues the idea of building heights within the ridge still nnw from uk area not nne, -ve area azores area and that e of uk also remain – rest of pattern much the same so unless there is some huge glitch/turn-around then a change to a colder blocked pattern is now 90%+ on the cards. Details will of course not be known for several days yet when the synoptic models begin to become more consistent and similar, ec-gfs then at 144 uk met added

post 396 gave my detailed view of probable developments this morning-no major change other than increasing my probability of blocked cold to 90%

Edited January 4, 2013 by johnholmes

[nick sussex]

This gives an alternative look at the ECM De Bilt ensembles:

For temperature this knocks out the 20 percent outlier solutions:

Then for wind direction:

You can then clearly see the split in wind direction.

[bluearmy]

This gives an alternative look at the ECM De Bilt ensembles:

For temperature this knocks out the 20 percent outlier solutions:

Then for wind direction:

You can then clearly see the split in wind direction.

Surely not the cold outliers nick !

[weathersupremacy]

18Z about to roll out.

Will it show something we've not seen yet?

Will it show Ian B's zonal train back on track, or will it be derailed by a mega easterly of which Steve Murr will be unable to see as he his moving house...most likely away from any tracks that have a zonal train...

...Pluto.

[chionomaniac]

For those of us who are not living in the South West here is Ian Ferguson's weather forcast. From about half way through he goes into a bit of detail about how our weather patterns might change.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2654675

Ha I am glad I didn't bet Ian to mention SSW the other day or I would be out of pocket!

A big thanks though, to bringing the strat to the attention of the masses!

[ChartViewer]

Interesting.......

[johnholmes]

Interesting.......

I've commented above with the link-yes it confirms that the cold will arrive

[bluearmy]

I've commented above with the link-yes it confirms that the cold will arrive

and contrary to the ukmo opinion of the current nwp :

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,

DUE TO EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT.

[ChartViewer]

I've commented above with the link-yes it confirms that the cold will arrive

Ok john thanks didnt realise ....

Edited January 5, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Cloud 10]

evening all one post on my mobile.

Im moving today. No broadband for 2 weeks. No service at my house.... Nooooooooo

S

New house looking good.

[NW Leeds Russ]

Eastern USA Feb 1991, how warm was that...

Isn't that on Ian McCaskills' famous weekly Countryfile forecast.

New York 21c

Wasington 23c

Richmond 25c then he shows us one of the UK's greatest ever synoptic charts.....

Edited January 4, 2013 by NW Leeds Russ

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Latest tweets from Chris Fawkes

Chris Fawkesâ€@_chrisfawkes

Midday ec run has really cold arctic air pushing into Scandinavia by mid January. If we loose UK ridge we could be in business late Jan.

Last thought for the night. The split strat vortex impart east tropospheric influence for 2 months, so plenty of winter left to get snowy!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Ha I am glad I didn't bet Ian to mention SSW the other day or I would be out of pocket!

A big thanks though, to bringing the strat to the attention of the masses!

Those in the SW are so lucky to have such a brilliant forecaster, one which is willing to go in depth about something like the stratosphere and its potential effects on the tropospheric weather patterns.

[nick sussex]

Latest tweets from Chris Fawkes

Chris Fawkesâ€@_chrisfawkes

Midday ec run has really cold arctic air pushing into Scandinavia by mid January. If we loose UK ridge we could be in business late Jan.

Last thought for the night. The split strat vortex impart east tropospheric influence for 2 months, so plenty of winter left to get snowy!

If the early stages of the GFS 18hrs run are on the money then why should we wait till the end of January!

Sledge exit poll! Good, start dusting off!

The upstream pattern at 78hrs is putting a smile on my face!

Edited January 4, 2013 by nick sussex

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Those in the SW are so lucky to have such a brilliant forecaster, one which is willing to go in depth about something like the stratosphere and its potential effects on the tropospheric weather patterns.

Paul Hudson is usually pretty detailed for us, especially if anything wintery in on the horizon, however he famously bigged up the December easterly and as soon as he did literally it exploded infront of our very eyes. I recon thats why he has not mentioned anything yet.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Paul Hudson is usually pretty detailed for us, especially if anything wintery in on the horizon, however he famously bigged up the December easterly and as soon as he did literally it exploded infront of our very eyes. I recon thats why he has not mentioned anything yet.

Well I'm not into character assassinations but our local forecasters tend to race through the forecast, being as brief as you like. One of them (naming no names) referred to a temperature being halved between the course of two days.....i.e 10C to 5C. There are so many things wrong with that I'm not even going to bother going into it but it's a fairly rudimentary error! I actually winced when it was said....though I suppose non weather geeks wouldn't have even registered the error.

Edited January 4, 2013 by CreweCold

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Unless he has seen different charts to us I can't wait to see the charts in a weeks time as I thought current ones were looking ok.

Chris Fawkesâ€@_chrisfawkes

There's still nothing hugely cold/ snowy in the models for UK yet -my guess is that the models will look a lot more exciting in a week or so

[bluearmy]

If the early stages of the GFS 18hrs run are on the money then why should we wait till the end of January!

Sledge exit poll! Good, start dusting off!

The upstream pattern at 78hrs is putting a smile on my face!

yep - bit further west at day 5. pleased to see that as i thought there might be a trend to flatten or at least positively tilt.

tbh, i'm as interested in whats happening to our sw re energy undercutting as i am looking north. if we get undercutting, we cant lose, whatever the polar profile.

Edited January 4, 2013 by bluearmy

[peterf]

same up here.

[snowking]

I really hope Steve has managed to get his '3' dongle on the go:

Thats what you call vertical

SK

[bobbydog]

I really hope Steve has managed to get his '3' dongle on the go:

Thats what you call vertical

SK

hopefully, in ten days time, steves dongle will be frozen......

[Cloud 10]

Frost alert from the 18z!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Frost alert from the 18z!

Well thats about time, We haven't had a frost here in nearly 4 weeks!! Hopefully during the nest few weeks we will see lots of sub zero temperatures.

[nick sussex]

Me and my big mouth!

It was looking so good earlier with a much better start but then we didn't get enough trough disruption with energy heading se under the ridge to the north, I will keep quiet in future!