Scotland Regional Discussion 4th January 2013>

[Buriedundersnow]

maybe there is a good reason why the bbc forecasts are being so bullish when u think that they take there advice from the met office and the met seem to be sticking by there model.

i'm sure i heard on this site months ago someone had said that the met had upgrades on there models to look at the workings of the strat so might there model be leading the way with how the strat is going to affect our weather if the upgrades in that area have helped them in this recent SSW.

[LomondSnowstorm]

maybe there is a good reason why the bbc forecasts are being so bullish when u think that they take there advice from the met office and the met seem to be sticking by there model.

i'm sure i heard on this site months ago someone had said that the met had upgrades on there models to look at the workings of the strat so might there model be leading the way with how the strat is going to affect our weather if the upgrades in that area have helped them in this recent SSW.

They have access to models of much higher resolution than the runs we can see, along with a very high resolution ensemble, so those must be very supportive of the cold.

[LomondSnowstorm]

This weekend will be very interesting. Saturday looks like a typical snowy convective easterly day, and every single metric points to falling and lying snow away from the very immediate coast:

The precipitation type, which almost always shows up as rain unless it progs high levels of precipitation, has snow for the east coast by +48.

It's coming folks.

[Buriedundersnow]

BREAKING NEWS: ops manager at asda falkirk depot says they are expecting snow with arctic winds and temps down to -20c

i dont yet know if that is an asda internal or not have asked to find out will post when i get more information so take it with a pinch of salt just now till i find out if it is solid or not as she only asked him in passing

EDIT: i am banned from the model thread so if u want to relay this message to there u can as i cant post in there.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Hawesy]

Saturday looks like a typical snowy convective easterly day, and every single metric points to falling and lying snow away from the very immediate coast:

Sounded great until those last six qualifying words. ;-)

IMBY aside, looks an interesting weekend for many in the eastern half of Scotland, and who knows what may funnel through the Central Belt.

[Penicuikblizzard]

If we get a direct easterly showers could make it through to the Glasgow area at times, but at present it looks a more SE tilt on the flow!!

[BleakMidwinter]

Spent this afternoon darning my boot-socks and washing my best woolly jumpers

Bring it on!!!

[applemint]

BREAKING NEWS: ops manager at asda falkirk depot says they are expecting snow with arctic winds and temps down to -20c

That is almost a word for word quote from the Scotsman, Express and Daily Mirror headlines, so it sounds to me like he/she is just repeating what woz in the paper so it must be true innit.

http://www.scotsman.com/edinburgh-evening-news/latest-news/temperature-to-fall-to-20-in-big-freeze-1-2724286

Edited January 10, 2013 by applemint

[Buriedundersnow]

That is almost a word for word quote from the Scotsman, Express and Daily Mirror headlines, so it sounds to me like he/she is just repeating what woz in the paper so it must be true innit.

http://www.scotsman....reeze-1-2724286

possibly i will find out soon hopefully

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Spot the difference

Next Wed Afternoon:

00Z

06Z

12Z

Wee bit of further back tracking going on.....

Edited January 10, 2013 by scottish skier

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Well if that headline and BleakMW's woollies washing don't jinx it, nothing will.

Edited January 10, 2013 by scottish skier

[LomondSnowstorm]

Models almost in agreement tonight - UKMO and GFS both give big Monday snowfall for most (if not all)

Slightly different UKMO by +144 but both it and the GFS now want to undercut that low:

GFS has backtracked a long way, just a bit more before it's back completely on side for the longer term.

[Northernlights]

Overcast afternoon discovered courtesy of contractors digger a blocked drain in field I never knew existed so a bit of rodding to clear the sand in the next week or so if it does not freeze up to much,otherwise its an April job. Also lopping a few trees in garden sensitively to provide a better view of the snow coming in from the east( not really just trying to let a bit more light in.) Currrently 4c so getting colder even under cloud cover.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Northernlights

[Buriedundersnow]

its official and not good with regards to supermarkets i can tell u all that all these people on other threads that say they pay big money for weather reports and such stuff is talking the biggest load of garbage in the world they do get told weather situations but it is subject to change so they must only be getting information like the same we get on here or ian f would post and they only get a 48 hour lead time on any adverse conditions and this is information from the main ops manager and the transport manager in the main scottish depot.

sorry folks but when i heard people talking about it on other threads i really thought i could bring u's some real information but looks like its a non starter and if u see anyone saying about supermarkets knowing more than anyone else what is on the way tell them there talking a load of tosh cos its just not the case and i'm hoping i'm not in the bad books for having my girlfriend running around asking if they know what the weather will do lol.

[onemanmows]

After enduring the model thread again month or so, came to look at me new local regional one. Much more useful, should have looked in from the start. So the thoughts are most of the snow that arrives will be convective but still not making it too far away from the Coast? I presume no posts here about us being half way through winter and it all being over at the end of February?

[lorenzo]

After enduring the model thread again month or so, came to look at me new local regional one. Much more useful, should have looked in from the start. So the thoughts are most of the snow that arrives will be convective but still not making it too far away from the Coast? I presume no posts here about us being half way through winter and it all being over at the end of February?

Welcome along onemanmows, can you add your location to your avatar this will allow folk to see where you are and if you ask anything we can answer relative to this.

Just in from work, colder again today, foggy, calm and drizzly the kind of of drizzle that falls in a similar dynamic to when it is gently snowing ( difficult to describe!).

Model runs not finished with the continued drama yet, over to the ECM this evening and the Pub run... then the 00z then tomorrow 12z. We will have consensus am sure although at this rate it will be on Sunday 12z!

[Soaring Hawk]

After enduring the model thread again month or so, came to look at me new local regional one. Much more useful, should have looked in from the start. So the thoughts are most of the snow that arrives will be convective but still not making it too far away from the Coast? I presume no posts here about us being half way through winter and it all being over at the end of February?

Hi Onemanmows, you won't get that sort of negativity in here! This thread is the best, imo, on N-W. You get knowledgeable and understandable technical information, great humour and friendliness in here - just what the doctor ordered after the sheer hysteria and bitter commentary in some other parts of the forum. Even if all the sacrifices at the alter of the Snow God aren't successful for everyone we are pleased that it snows somewhere in Scotland! I love it in here.

I feel I should post a chart but haven't got the courage to drag one out of the Secure Ward, so here's my ramp.....

[cscrim]

welcome to the kilted thread onemanmows.

got to say if we ordering ramps i would like LS to deliver one of these soon.

[Snooz]

Just back from work & can't bare to look , has the GFS backtracked?

Can someone put me out my misery please

Think Ally it's a case that yes they've taken 3 steps back, but the others (UKMO especially.. others please correct me if this not right) have also taken a step forward, more like they're about to meet. From what I see this still means cold and uncertain,, tames the easterley for this weekend.. and I've no idea what longer term implictions LOL!!

but am avoiding the MT for a while til they get it oot their systems

take care in there

Edited January 10, 2013 by Snooz

[Snooz]

PS: talking about locations on avatars.. - Welcome onemanmows!!

are we still in "cut down" mode as I still can't see locations after servers went down the other night...

[Allyw12]

Think Ally it's a case that yes they've taken 3 steps back, but the others (UKMO especially.. others please correct me IIRC) have also taken a step forward, more like they're about to meet. From what I see this still means cold and uncertain,, tames the easterley for this weekend.. and I've no idea what longer term implictions LOL!!

but am avoiding the MT for a while til they get it oot their systems

take care in there

Thanks Snooz sounds better than it was earlier, roll on the ECM

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

GFS backtracking away from that pesky shortwave back tae cauld very much evident in the ensemble suite

06Z

12Z

BleakMW, while yer washin the woollies n that, can ye give the above a wee bit mair o an iron? Thanks. Maybe hang some wet woolies on it tae; bring the red line doon a bit.

Edited January 10, 2013 by scottish skier

[lorenzo]

PS: talking about locations on avatars.. - Welcome onemanmows!!

are we still in "cut down" mode as I still can't see locations after servers went down the other night...

Good point Snooz - it may be there forgot about the running in lite mode just now!

ECM steadfast, GFS less progressive with zapping the low past Iceland.

ECM between 96 hrs and 120 hrs hides a lot of model action and the faxes later if taking from the ECM run will be interesting to see exactly what is in play for travelling across the country in this period, usual caveats of course re changing outlook with each run.

Brilliant drama - 2 heavyweights continue the shortwave slugfest !

Temps at 144 what many want to see and hopefully the solution when we get there.

[mistyqueen]

Well, it's been a lovely sunny day up here, and the temp has just dropped to 2.6 and still falling. Been a while since it was that cold up here. Just seen the BBC forecast, white stuff for most parts of the UK over the weekend....except for Skye, West Highlands.....bummer!

[lorenzo]

Oh My..

512 dam air incoming..undercut.