Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>

[Hammer]

-12 uppers having a look up the thames estuary at T132

Interesting run & seems like a further move towards euro in earlier frames.

[MR EXTREMES]

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rmgfs1232.gif

And if by secondary magic the upper air cold pool is now -15c just 150 miles to the east.....

S

noticed that steve u said earlier the gfs was going to upgrade nice call.

fantastic so far now im feeling a little more confident -12 just skirting kent amazing.

[tight isobar]

Yes, were out at +132......and i think we can now say model.....output ....agreement...:-).

[Panayiotis]

Shift the shortwave north a little and bang widespread snowfall but that upgrade can come tomorrow! Very happy with the GFS as its showing this low to take similar route (Channel/France) to the routes of the lows on the ECM.

Edited January 10, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Wilxy]

This is so much better, bit of relief now.

[Supacell]

Virtually countrywide snow event on Monday night into Tuesday leaving most of the country under a blanket of snow by the morning. Those places in the far east that are not covered, i would expect to have snow cover due to there have been two days of snow showers off the North Sea before this.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Wonderful output tonight, as good as we could've asked. The mildest solution may not always be the right one...

If I'm being very picky I think I prefer the fax chart to the 18Z as it keeps the warm sector further west but no run is anything other than excellent tonight.

[bradymk]

You might say this might only one run but no this is the start of a HUGE correction, a well done to ECM and also GEM which has done very well it has to be said

[ChartViewer]

And remember main strat warming dynamics isnt here yet...roll on 28th hehe

Edited January 10, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Southender]

Great run in the reliable. Needs to be backed by the 00's in the morning though.

[Allseasons-Si]

SHORTWAVE drama off the continent at t135,nick s where r u,this shortwave could be a good'n.

Si

[The Beast From The East]

Well I'm very happy and can now have a good sleep after seeing the 18z. Things at last look like they may actually going our way..

I must admit though that I will still be nervous in the morning when I log back in here also I find the post in here after 4am are very confusing to armatures as some say upgrades and others say its all over.. All kinds of strange post first thing.

Still looking at the 18Z I think a good chance of the white stuff from Sunday night till at least Tuesday .. I look forward to more post from Steve M, The Eye in the sky and Ian F as I find them easy to understand and well explained.

[chionomaniac]

Strong jet stream coming off the eastern SEeboard at T+138

However, this one has strong undercut written all over it!

[snowblues]

At about T117 them to little lows near iceland,one seems to flattern out and the other not as progressive which lets in the easterly uppers a little easier

[Waterspout]

-1 to -4 Max UK wide next Wed Noon

[Jason M]

Great news tonight. GFS has just been very strange these last couple of days....

One slight word of caution, don't assume that cold charts mean deep snow drifts. I expect there will be snow around, but the charts look very very cold but very 'still' to me. The North Sea won't be generating convective snow showers without a meaningful onshore easterly wind.

Loads of potential though and too far out to be getting specific anyway.

Jason

[SnowObsessor90]

You just watch ECM now back away whilst GFS goes with this for the next several runs. it would just be typical lol

Edited January 10, 2013 by Anonymous21

[Robbie Garrett]

I believe Heathrow is on amber warning at the moment, not sure if it's red yet... closer to the time I believe it will.

Monday night currently Light snow, I can't wait to see what Tuesday Brings. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1358121600

So much divergence after then, looks likely London could hit double figures on Thursday. The lower scale showing -4*C.

Central London will collapse

[Jason74]

You might say this might only one run but no this is the start of a HUGE correction, a well done to ECM and also GEM which has done very well it has to be said

Agreed but never count one's chickens!.

A few more runs and then it's time to feel more comfortable.

[lord stratus]

Better start stocking up them red bulls and coffee guys and gals - Ian B are you there?

Yes it's looking like a very good cold spell coming up. Gfs bolstering the likely outcome that the Euros have been consistently showing. Plenty of snow chances.

The grim reaper will appear on here when he see's any negatives to comment on:)

[chionomaniac]

And remember main strat warming dynamics isnt here yet...roll on 28th hehe

Everything backing west though due to the SSW split.

[MR EXTREMES]

massive upgrade absolutely stunning -8 air over most of england with all sorts and heights not interfering with drag of cold air from the east.

[SMU]

Wait for the overnight minima at 150 / 156- gfs trying to rush the atlantic in- but could see -13.....

S

[AGAL]

God I hate 18z's like this I'm now fearful to go to sleep and log on in the light of dawn! The morning after the night before promises made and all that.

Oh please Lord just let us have consistency over the next week -no more St Paul on the road to Damascus Stunts-I beseech you. Just all the bloody models agreeing for once on a sustained cold spell that reality will come to pass.

Dear Lord before we go to sleep pray keep these latest synoptics to keep.

Like most I follow this stuff religiously

[cold snap]

Atlantic trying to come back at 150 , due to very little blocking but another step towards the ECM