Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[keithlucky]

Weather warning for Wales altered nearly reaching the tip of Pembroke http://www.metoffice...dd/wl/2013-1-18

[bradymk]

Weather warning for Wales altered nearly reaching the tip of Pembroke http://www.metoffice...dd/wl/2013-1-18

Metoffice site has showed that all day Keith, for some reason BBC havent shown the same

[keithlucky]

Metoffice site has showed that all day Keith, for some reason BBC havent shown the same

Sorry been looking else were at long range forecasts.

[Gorky101]

I never realised that what we are seeing now is actually the begining of the event!!

we have continuous precipitation right the way through , progressively getting heavier

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/accumulation-precipitations/3h.htm

[bradymk]

Sorry been looking else were at long range forecasts.

If the NAE 18z has caught onto a trend of the precip not making it far eastwards Friday, then as long as future NAE runs continue, Your location looks good to see a fair bit of snow, however we need future NAE runs to do the same. Dew points were 5c lower on this run at one point compared to the 12z for Pembs

I never realised that what we are seeing now is actually the begining of the event!!

we have continuous precipitation right the way through , progressively getting heavier

http://www.meteociel...itations/3h.htm

This is because you are on accumulated precipitation which is all precip added up, if you click on just precipitation then it shows you a better idea.

Edited January 16, 2013 by bradythemole

[Gorky101]

If the NAE 18z has caught onto a trend of the precip not making it far eastwards Friday, then as long as future NAE runs continue, Your location looks good to see a fair bit of snow, however we need future NAE runs to do the same. Dew points were 5c lower on this run at one point compared to the 12z for Pembs

This is because you are on accumulated precipitation which is all precip added up, if you click on just precipitation then it shows you a better idea.

Sorry in my excitement I never realised!11

[bradymk]

GFS Ensembles and NMM also shifting westwards, encouraging.

[Scarlet_Snow]

Snowed here for a good hour lightly/moderately, nothing stuck though. Temp 1.5c Hopefully a taster of things to come

[Jayfromcardiff]

GFS Ensembles and NMM also shifting westwards, encouraging.

What totals would i be looking at mate? i was thinking around 6 inches of snow by the end of friday? is that reasonable?

I think i'm over 100m asl anyway so hopefully.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Jayfromcardiff

[bradymk]

What totals would i be looking at mate? i was thinking around 6 inches of snow by the end of friday? is that reasonable?

Depends on your location in Cardiff, higher up the more snow. It will all depend on conditions on the day, dew point etc on how much you get but i would say 5-10cm for cardiff is a good bet, increasing further northwards however. ie - less cardiff bay, more north cardiff. Cardiff looks like staying in the snow-snow sector also at the moment. Edited January 16, 2013 by bradythemole

[pyrotech]

Met office going for upto 20cm for Bristol / Glous so thats 8 inch for them, i would say 4 -8 is possible at North Cardiff if that is true. apparently they were live on a radio in the Southwest a little time ago talking to Exeter.

"will it snow in Cardiff .......... JAY lol .......... YES YES YES

[Panayiotis]

What totals would i be looking at mate? i was thinking around 6 inches of snow by the end of friday? is that reasonable?

15cm? Thats a bit much i would say around 4 inches..

[Panayiotis]

Snowing again here, lightly but its instantly settling on cars, which have a dusting hopefully this is the beginning!

[worldairgroup]

just was watching cnn international news and the forecaster on there tom whatever his name seemed to be excited about europe! he was talking about austria having over 20 cms of snow in last 24 hours and then talked about our event..................... he mentioned WALES twice!! Wahheeyy!! His words were - this is going to cause likely conditions as those we saw in various parts of the US in recent weeks - I assume he was on about few weeks ago with the storm there. Nice to see the US mentioning our name! Trying to find video but unable to at moment! But all in all - their models were more or less the same as ours except showing a shift further west in wales. WAAAAHHHEEEEEE!

[TonyH]

Severe weather guide:

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4546-weather-guide-severe-weather-update-thursday-17th-to-sunday-20th-january-2013/

[worldairgroup]

Severe weather guide:

http://forum.netweat...h-january-2013/

spot on thanks Tonyh! appreciated!

[bradymk]

Latest NMM 0.005 on meteociel now has snow even on Pembrokeshire early Friday. Two high res models showing westward movements, if this is still evident in the morning, it could be game on for me!! more of Wales seeing all snow if more movements west

[Jackfrost]

Severe weather guide:

http://forum.netweat...h-january-2013/

From Tony's guide:

"For Saturday, still further snow to come would you believe, as the trough gradually dies a death over the south-west. Wales and the SW Midlands looking like being hardest hit on Saturday, the snow depths piling up even further, and with the 36 hours or more of snow modelled in these areas, we are looking at a foot of level snow quite widely, and drifts many times this that would block roads and railways."

It sounds like a carbon copy of what I've heard of the blizzard of January 198... infact, I'm not going to say it. We all know what I'm talking about. What do you think, Tony? Most significant snow event for many years at least.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Jackfrost

[Clare81]

Do you think the Met office will issue us with a red warning? The certainty of the event is high and with the amounts of snow in the forecast I thought it would warrant a red warning. Had a look on the Met office to see examples of when red warnings are issued and there was one for snow in 2009 when London had a similar set up to us.

[andymusic]

So you finally believe my predictions from over a week - two weeks ago then! - SNOW SNOW SNOW AND THEN MORE SNOW - AND MORE SNOW - I WASN'T WRONG WAS I!

[blackrose73]

So you finally believe my predictions from over a week - two weeks ago then! - SNOW SNOW SNOW AND THEN MORE SNOW - AND MORE SNOW - I WASN'T WRONG WAS I!

Hasn't happened yet of course but looks fairly nailed on for most of us in Wales. I think I'm pretty safe snow-wise at 740 feet up in the valleys but I also hope this is a snowfest for ALL of Wales! There have been consistent westward predictions of the extent of snow so I hope everyone in SW Wales has a taste of the Vanilla Exilir!

[Bonjangle]

So you finally believe my predictions from over a week - two weeks ago then! - SNOW SNOW SNOW AND THEN MORE SNOW - AND MORE SNOW - I WASN'T WRONG WAS I!

i WILL QUOTE WHEN IT HAPPENS .....

[worldairgroup]

So you finally believe my predictions from over a week - two weeks ago then! - SNOW SNOW SNOW AND THEN MORE SNOW - AND MORE SNOW - I WASN'T WRONG WAS I!

i always do andy! see my earlier posting last night/evening!

[andymusic]

Hasn't happened yet of course but looks fairly nailed on for most of us in Wales. I think I'm pretty safe snow-wise at 740 feet up in the valleys but I also hope this is a snowfest for ALL of Wales! There have been consistent westward predictions of the extent of snow so I hope everyone in SW Wales has a taste of the Vanilla Exilir!

was up your way in brynmawr tonight - i think that's not too far away from you anyway - my liza was broadcasting a live show on internet tv on www.brfm.co.uk

[andymusic]

i always do andy! see my earlier posting last night/evening!

i know

anyway the aperitiff of snow is happening up here - roads - hedge - grass all covered - up brynmawr - they had a few cms - come friday at 4am - THE BLIZZARD OF ALL BLIZZARDS WILL ARRIVE AND THEN THE FUN WILL; REALLY START! lol