North West England Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013, 12z onwards

[Spurry]

Slurry your right some twonks robbed my snow shovel!

nice one!!!, enjoy your snow mate.

[Snowmad79]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdongSCMEq0

That forcecast is already way off the mark from the start 6pm this evening!

[liam79]

its snowing in st Helens but its wet snow so just making everything wet. I am shocked to see so much snow now as the event if one was happening is tomorrow.

Down the road in rainford its sticking perfectly been out with the kids and its enough to run a plastic sledge on and its great for snowballs

[Backtrack]

UKMO have updated their 5 day forecasts for the SW of the region:

This snow dying out @ midnight then snow (light/moderate) from 6am for 21 hours until 0300 Saturday, a certain upgrade, shows they paid attention to the 12z GFS.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I would ignore those symbols CC, it's a radar job in the morning pure and simple.

Fingers well and truly crossed for a dump eh Ian and not the sort you experience after a hot jalfrezi

[frankie01]

That forcecast is already way off the mark from the start 6pm this evening!

it also has nothing for merseyside worryingly

[Darren Bown]

That forcecast is already way off the mark from the start 6pm this evening!

I just watched that. It's ridiculous! He basically shows no show from 8pm.

[NickyB]

This has been posted before but it looks quite accurate to me.

http://en.vedur.is/weather/shipping/atlantic/#type=prec

[wysiwyg]

UKMO have updated their 5 day forecasts for the SW of the region:

This snow dying out @ midnight then snow (light/moderate) from 6am for 21 hours until 0300 Saturday, a certain upgrade, shows they paid attention to the 12z GFS.

I think they more likely paid attention to their own global model and their high res local models

[Snow free zone]

This is a blizzard by preston standards. A few flakes floating around in the wind. We may get a mm if this keeps up all night.

Cant see the upgrade for tomorrow in any of the forecasts IMBY meto no snow - bbc no snow ....... looks like the dandruff from tonight will be it.

[Munchermark]

This has been posted before but it looks quite accurate to me.

http://en.vedur.is/w...ntic/#type=prec

If that happens tomorrow id be happy

[Backtrack]

I think they more likely paid attention to their own global model and their high res local models

They'll take into account the operationals no matter what their high-res models show. No one run can be discounted completely.

[carl1980]

snow melting on the cars now,and roads are wet, snow still on roofs and walls

[wysiwyg]

They'll take into account the operationals no matter what their high-res models show. No one run can be discounted completely.

Agreed - I'm pretty sure their own operationals came more into agreement with the 12Z GFS

[Brass_Monkeys]

A few pics of this evenings snow

[MrSunshine]

Down the road in rainford its sticking perfectly been out with the kids and its enough to run a plastic sledge on and its great for snowballs

Same here in Billinge Higher end, there's a chance sledging on Billinge Hill could be on tomorrow afternoon.! Still very unclear where the next 24 hours takes us.

[greybing]

Well,that is it now,im giving up on any hope of decent snow now and tomorrow....there is a very patchy covering here,pretty crap..how about other parts of Manchester?

[chiffer]

How is the north east getting a better mention than us?

[SummerNSnow]

Big flakes now!!

[greybing]

A few pics of this evenings snow

Well you did ok,not bad at all.I see you have that mashed potato with mint effect on the grass[thats what it reminded me of when i was a kid] Edited January 17, 2013 by greybing

[Snowmad79]

I just watched that. It's ridiculous! He basically shows no show from 8pm.

Tell me about it. They had me down as dry from 6pm through the night but its been snowing non-stop since then. Mind you they always get it wrong for my area. That's why I'm not buying that the next band of heavy snow will not reach here.

[Weather-history]

Well,that is it now,im giving up on any hope of decent snow now and tomorrow....there is a very patchy covering here,pretty crap..how about other parts of Manchester?

A covering on most surfaces here.

[simon29]

This is a blizzard by preston standards. A few flakes floating around in the wind. We may get a mm if this keeps up all night.

Cant see the upgrade for tomorrow in any of the forecasts IMBY meto no snow - bbc no snow ....... looks like the dandruff from tonight will be it.

always the optimist

[Ian Brown]

Ian whats your honest thought's on that next band and how far east and north it will reach ?

I just don't know now - I thought with the news this morning that we were gonna see a pivoting low pull it back SW, then it was curtains but we already have a band over us, seemingly caused by the instability ahead of the front. i think we could end up with a mass of PPN, presumably with the core over Wales and the SW Mids but with enough further North for much of the region to see some snow, and you can't ignore the 12z GFS which was decent for the whole region.

[wysiwyg]

Interesting that in the very short term GFS ensembles the operational run is marginally the coldest of all runs in terms of uppers and marginally the driest in terms of precip for the Cheshire region and same for the Lancashire region. Could this suggest that the 12Z was actually underplaying the impact of the front tomorrow?

Edited January 17, 2013 by wysiwyg