London & South East Regional Discussion 18th January 2013, 12z onwards

[A Wintry Mix]

Sunday could be Mega..dissapointing

Edited January 18, 2013 by hopeitsnows

[Southender]

OK, here's the important ones for Sunday and GFS says hit!!!

BIG TIME!!

Looking a bit near the mark with the 850's near -2 though. Another warm sector to worry about.

[Coast]

You'l forgive me if i take this somewhat less than seriously...

I won't!!!! This could bring us more than today in a lot of areas (and those that got little today!)

[london-snow]

The Big Freeze is over in London ... Roll on SUMMER !!!!!

Troll if i ever seen one !

[abovefreezing]

To those saying there is melting going on, I find hat seriously hard to believe. Tempd and dew points are sub zero. Only where there has been gritting will it be melting.

I think people confuse melting snow with it ,err, melting but what I mean is on poorly insulated porch rooves and so on.

Perhaps even poorly insulated houses, although with the cost of heating these days its hard to believe some people like heating up the street!

Mind you, if you are on 1k a day, who cares

[Damp and dreary]

The Big Freeze is over in London ... Roll on SUMMER !!!!!

How many times have you got to tell us though?!

[MONKEYJAM]

Pepping up again here in Woking . Not sure how looking at the radar ????

[Met4Cast]

The NMM showed the snow never really reaching East Kent, big props to that model, I'll be paying a lot more attention to it from now on! The NAE can sod right off to the cannon fodder folder

[abovefreezing]

I won't!!!! This could bring us more than today in a lot of areas (and those that got little today!)

Heard about the warm sector yet?

[Bluebreezer54]

Thats quite an impressive dusting there!

Lol. Not much on the ground I grant you but the amount falling was impressive while it lasted.

[Paul Sherman]

Thanks for the Charts Robin

Like I have been saying all winter take those with a huuuge pinch of salt, they look pwetty but rarely deliver as they show on the charts.

I must admit to not being a fan of frontal events, and as such Essex is not the driest part of the country for nothing but even today has been a big letdown, the 19 flakes was the highlight, well you could not really call them flakes more like bits of ice pellets no bigger than the end of a pencil.

Sunday might look nice now on the charts but am expecting a huge shift eastwards for the low countries.

Could not even manage an Ice day in the end with the temp creeping upto 0.2c now, cant wait for the warm up tbh as this wind is pure evil!

[Southender]

A little bit too close for comfort that warm sector on Sunday...

[WhiteFox]

Great drive. Some hairy moments! Set off towards Swindon at about 5.30 this morning. Snow started picked up at Membury when I stopped for a coffee about 6am. Lots of heavy snow and was debating driving down to Marlborough and then along the A4, but decided not to risk the hills, so back on M4 to Hungerford and then down A4.

Didn't look like the A4 had been gritted as there was real powder covering the carriageway. Of course, main roads are boring, so drove up to Hampstead Norreys and tok the back roads to Pangbourne. Real winter wonderland on the Berkshire downs and fresh snow for me to drive over! About four inches up there at about 9am.

From thence up the B471 through Woodcote to the A4074. This is a fairly high level route for the area and was already starting to look risky as I was driving it. Descending into Reading in low gear (why can't people work out that a low gear is better than hitting the brakes in snow?) it's no wonder that I heard on the radio later that people were starting to abandon their cars.

Up the B481, heading for Christmas Common (the highest point in the area) there was a snag as the road was closed due to an accident, so off onto a side road.

This was pretty well covered. Reached a hill with a load of cars parked at the bottom.

"you'll never get through" said a guy sat in a 4x4.

"I'll make it!"

So, a front wheel drive car with winter tyres made it up an icy hill whereas a 4x4 with summer tyres (probably not new tyres) couldn't. I made a mistake of stopping to put on my snow chains. No sooner had I put the handbrake on when the car started sliding back down the hill. Cue a Mr Bean moment as I tried to open the door and jump in the prevent it from sliding back down the hill. Luckily I got the engine started and the trusty winter tyres kicked in again.

Final part of the drive was a breeze. Some drifting snow on the road from Christmas Common to Stokenchurch, but nothing major.

The last part, the drive down the M40 to BEaconsfield Services (where I'm now holed up) was the worst. Atrocious conditions, and ice kept getting caught in the windscreen wipers, so they were spreading as much water over the windscreen as they were clearing.

Took about 30 minutes to get from the bottom of the sliproad at J3 to the services, but now happily having a coffee before the drive back to Reading.

Most fun I've had for ages!

[Lt. Dan]

Quite fancy our chances on Sunday (at the moment!). Not quite ready to join rampathon again just yet but shall be chart monitoring over the weekend!

Edited January 18, 2013 by danuk

[Kay]

15:15 raintoday (last one that isnt a forecast)

shows snow neatly chopped off to the NE by the M20.

is it really that close?

Anyone in Tenterden/Woodchurch etc confirm?

We have it blowing in the wind but not a great deal.

It looked like it was getting heavier but has died down again

[chionomaniac]

OK, here's the important ones for Sunday and GFS says hit!!!

Very unusual synoptics these. I don't think that I have ever seen this before. It seems that a small area of low pressure develops off the Bay of Biscay, crosses Spain, before heading north and becoming engulfed in the arm extended from the Atlantic trough. As it does so a warm moist plume hits the cold continental air, overriding it, leaving no sea modification before heading north and leaving snow in its wake. The only concern is keeping the 0ºC 850's away.

[Kawaii]

I'm preparing myself for a downgrade on Sunday. At least that way I won't be too disappointed.

[Mac_SE]

Heard about the warm sector yet?

Time for your pills AF...

[chionomaniac]

I think that those missing out today will be more than compensated on Sunday. This will lead to far heavier snow falls!

[MONKEYJAM]

Just got me ruler out just under 4" here in woking. still snowing bout 7/10 on murr ometer

[Radiating Dendrite]

Met Office still have us down for Heavy snow tonight - are they mad?

THESE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON THE MODELS AND THUS CHANGE WITH EVERY MODEL RUN!

[john mac]

I think that those missing out today will be more than compensated on Sunday. This will lead to far heavier snow falls!

Hope your right mate

[Paul Sherman]

I think that those missing out today will be more than compensated on Sunday. This will lead to far heavier snow falls!

I am usually not so pessamistic Ed but this is going to be sooo marginal it is not funny, expecting some downgrades over the next 2 days from the Tv Forecasts, I think it is good to let people on here know the potential problems with this set-up before the wrist slashing ensues when hanging on every single tv forecast.

As such we have 2 major issues here,

1. GFS Always moves a Northward moving area of precip towards the Low Countries

2. Marginality with this event is going to be painfull to watch unfold!

[Vesuvius]

I won't!!!! This could bring us more than today in a lot of areas (and those that got little today!)

Yep, Met Office are going for 2-5cm for SE / East Anglia.

[Southender]

I think that those missing out today will be more than compensated on Sunday. This will lead to far heavier snow falls!

Hope so.

A little bit on the knife edge side though for my liking: